Joe vs. The BABIP

Batting average of balls in play, or BABIP is a recent statistic developed to quantify a players luck.  The proponents of BABIP claim that all pitchers BABIP stay consistent and a pitcher whose BABIP is high should see a future improvement because they are suffering from bad luck, while a pitcher with an unusually low BABIP should see their future performance regress because they have been lucky.  As a self proclaimed stathead, I love statistics, but I have a hard time believing in a stat that claims to track luck.  I think a person makes their own luck by putting themselves in positions to win (good luck) or lose (bad luck).  When relating luck to baseball players I think this belief holds true and their luck is based on skill.  In regards to pitchers and BABIP, there are many factors that can effect a pitcher's performance, i.e. a pitcher may have developed or improved a pitch that increases his chances of winning, or possibly a pitcher may be hurt causing his pitches to be less effective.  Another example is maybe the team brought in a slick fielding shortstop who now is cobbling up those groundballs that used to get through for hits, or maybe the pitcher worked on his splitter and is now getting more groundballs that used to be line drive hits.  On the other side, if a pitcher is injured or fatigued his pitches might be more hittable.  This has nothing to do with luck, it relates to ability, either his or the team behind him.  There are so many things that factor into a pitcher's results, to lump them all into luck is stupid.  I understand BABIP should not be used to track game-by-game results, but should be used to predict future results based on past season performance and career results using the belief that a player will regress to his mean, be it improvement or decline. 

Joe Saunders got lit up last night.  Saunders lasted just an inning and a third against Oakland, giving up 6 earned runs and 8 hits and is now winless in August (4 starts).  During his August starts, Saunders' BABIP is .368.  Does this mean he's been unlucky?  No, it shows he's sucked.  If BABIP is used in the correct way when looking at Saunders' performance this year it'd look like this:

These numbers try to suggest Saunders has been pitching this year with good luck behind him considering his BABIP is out of line with his career number (apparently he's always sucked).  Have we been watching Saunders regress to his mean over his last