Joe vs. The BABIP

Batting average of balls in play, or BABIP is a recent statistic developed to quantify a players luck.  The proponents of BABIP claim that all pitchers BABIP stay consistent and a pitcher whose BABIP is high should see a future improvement because they are suffering from bad luck, while a pitcher with an unusually low BABIP should see their future performance regress because they have been lucky.  As a self proclaimed stathead, I love statistics, but I have a hard time believing in a stat that claims to track luck.  I think a person makes their own luck by putting themselves in positions to win (good luck) or lose (bad luck).  When relating luck to baseball players I think this belief holds true and their luck is based on skill.  In regards to pitchers and BABIP, there are many factors that can effect a pitcher's performance, i.e. a pitcher may have developed or improved a pitch that increases his chances of winning, or possibly a pitcher may be hurt causing his pitches to be less effective.  Another example is maybe the team brought in a slick fielding shortstop who now is cobbling up those groundballs that used to get through for hits, or maybe the pitcher worked on his splitter and is now getting more groundballs that used to be line drive hits.  On the other side, if a pitcher is injured or fatigued his pitches might be more hittable.  This has nothing to do with luck, it relates to ability, either his or the team behind him.  There are so many things that factor into a pitcher's results, to lump them all into luck is stupid.  I understand BABIP should not be used to track game-by-game results, but should be used to predict future results based on past season performance and career results using the belief that a player will regress to his mean, be it improvement or decline. 

Joe Saunders got lit up last night.  Saunders lasted just an inning and a third against Oakland, giving up 6 earned runs and 8 hits and is now winless in August (4 starts).  During his August starts, Saunders' BABIP is .368.  Does this mean he's been unlucky?  No, it shows he's sucked.  If BABIP is used in the correct way when looking at Saunders' performance this year it'd look like this:

These numbers try to suggest Saunders has been pitching this year with good luck behind him considering his BABIP is out of line with his career number (apparently he's always sucked).  Have we been watching Saunders regress to his mean over his last 4 starts?  His August numbers aren't too far off from his 2007 season results, but how would you explain his results prior to August of this season?  His BABIP prior to August was .242, much better than his career numbers.  There has to be more to it than luck.  I don't believe a pitcher can be lucky for 4 months, in my opinion the sample size is large enough to suggest other factors.  I can see a month or two, but something changed prior to this season that I believe improved Saunders' chances of winning, whether it was improved skills or team defense; the Angels defense has improved slightly from last year.  In 2007 the team defense efficiency was .677, this year it's .697 (Defense efficiency estimates the number of batted balls turned into outs).

When looking at Saunders' BABIP over the course of a season, it does appear he has a difficult time maintaining his performance.  As the graph below shows (provided by Hardball Times), over the last 3 years he gets worse as the season goes on.

Whatever the belief, whether it is luck, skill, karma, astrology, or voodoo, Saunders needs to get back to his pre-August results as he's an important part of the Angels' post season success. 

Daily Notes:

• The Angels' bullpen was very good last night while holding Oakland scoreless over the last 7.2 innings and giving the hitters a chance to get the team back into the game.  Shane Loux pitched 3 innings in relief of Saunders, followed by Oliver, Arredondo and Speier.
• Weird batting order last night with Gary Matthews Jr. and his blistering .309 OBP leading off, followed by Howie Kendrick in the #2 slot.  I like this place in the order for Kendrick, but I have no idea what Matthews was doing leading off.  Maybe Mike Scioscia was just trying to "shake things up".
• Wednesday night was not a good night for staying healthy as both Kendrick and shortstop Erick Aybar left the game with injuries.  Kendrick re-injured his right hamstring, the same one that caused him to miss 6 weeks earlier in the season and Aybar left the game with a tight left hamstring.  The injuries caused the Angels to use a unique line-up in the ninth inning when OF Juan Rivera made his first career appearance at second base.  Although neither injury looks serious, the Angels are rumored to be looking for infield help via trade.  Names that have surfaced include former Angels David Eckstein, Toronto's John MacDonald and Marco Scuturo, Cleveland's Jamey Carroll and Baltimore's Juan Castro.  Other options are Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood.  Wood can play short or third (moving Chone Figgins to 2B) and Sean Rodriguez who can fill-in at both middle infield positions.  Figgins is also hurting and considered day-to-day due to irritation in his left big toe.
• Magic Number:  15 (with 30 games remaining)