With Brandon Wood hitting .337 / .417 / .726 (!) at AAA,and the team slugging only .413 through Saturday's game, it is understandable that Angels fans are clamoring for his recall. However, it should be obvious by now that, for the time being, the Angels consider him "organizational depth" -- they'll use him in place of an injured player, but they're not going to kick anyone off the current 25-man roster to make room for him. Are they nuts? The starting third baseman is slugging .359 (and only after a recent tear), their shortstop has a .314 OBP, and the second baseman is hitting just .247 / .290 / .384. Oh, and the utility infielders have OPSes of .614 and .576. Clearly they must be mad.
Let's stop and think for a second. First of all, even Matt Wieters, pretty much the consensus top hitting prospect in all of baseball, is still chilling in AAA. His team could certainly use him, their catchers are Chad Moeller and Gregg Zaun after all. But the Orioles are content to keep him in the minors for now. Trying to cheat him out of a year of arbitration? Maybe. But if he's as good as they say he is, they'll just end up signing him to an Evan Longoria-type contract after a year or two. More likely Baltimore management has identified a few things they want him to work on. Tearing up the minor leagues is not an indicator of immediate success in the majors. Dallas MacPherson destroyed PCL pitching last year, just like Wood is doing now. The Marlins DFA'd him at the start of the year, and now he is playing in Japan. The difference is that D-Mac was over the hill for a minor leaguer, while Wood still has time to grow. The Angels are not breaking with any precedents by keeping him in AAA.
At least Wood is playing everyday and seeing pitches. Even playing two-thirds of the time in the major leagues would not give him the experience he needs. I've always said that his walk rate will be the key to his success. Seeing 20 pitches or so every day is the only way he's going to develop the discipline he needs to reach his potential. If he's not getting that in the big leagues, the Angels would only be holding him back by keeping him there.
Okay, so why not just boot one of the starters? Chone Figgins has no power for a third baseman, so he's the first candidate. However, he does have a .375 OBP, he's 19-for-22 in stolen bases, and he's scored 27 of the team's 211 runs. In other words, he's playing a big role in the offense that no one else on the team can fill, with the possible exception of Bobby Abreu. But Abreu is not as young or as fast as Figgins, and he has power potential, even if it hasn't shown up yet, so his bat works better lower in the order.
Well, Wood can play short too, why not replace Erick Aybar? I'm going to defend Aybar's right to play short and blame his throw-the-bat-at-the-ball moments on Mike Scioscia's direct orders to make contact and move someone over. Recently, Scioscia has been placing Aybar second, where his bat is woefully inadequate. But this isn't really Aybar's fault -- he has an OPS of .730, actually higher than the .710 OPS of the average AL shortstop. Relative to his position, he's not hurting his team at the plate. When you factor in his superior glove and good speed, you have one of the more valuable shortstops in the league. I really fault Scioscia's poor management of the two-hole here. He wants his #2 hitter to make contact, move guys over, bunt, steal, all of the typical small ball stuff. In recent years he's stacked the position with players like Aybar, Izturis, and Kendrick: aggressive contact hitters who make a lot of outs. On top of that he asks them to do things like sacrifice with no one out in the second inning. Add it up and you get a .303 OBP from #2 batters this year, and .302 OBP last year. Three-zero-two! That's as bad as Yuniesky Betancourt batting second every day for an entire year. Talk about a hole in the heart of the order. The Angels would be much better served with someone who can actually get on base hitting second, like Abreu or even Napoli. A "productive out" is a booby prize; not making an out is always the better outcome. Aybar can take his bat to the bottom of the lineup where it looks much more adequate.
Honestly, batting order is not as important as we think it is. The difference between the best-possible and worst-possible lineups is no more than one or two wins. Tinkering won't make a bad offense good or a good offense bad. But one or two wins can be all the difference in the world for a team fighting for a playoff berth, so optimizing the lineup is an important higher-order correction. Please Mike, for the love of God stop with the contact plays at the top of the order.
I see only one possible roster shuffle that includes Wood but doesn't break something else that's already working. That's removing Howie Kendrick from his starting role, putting Figgins at second (his natural position), and replacing him at third with Wood. The way Kendrick has scuffled at the plate this season, a move like this might not be too far away, but I'm going to hold off on stumping for it. For now. He might still work things out. Just please don't bat him second.
So to those at the Brandon Wood NOW! Political Action Committee, I say, keep it calm. The offense is scoring 4.9 runs per game this year -- even better than last year. Losses happen. Shutouts happen. Sweeps happen. The real problem is still in the bullpen. Maybe I'll start taking donations for a Rich Thompson NOW! campaign.
Let's stop and think for a second. First of all, even Matt Wieters, pretty much the consensus top hitting prospect in all of baseball, is still chilling in AAA. His team could certainly use him, their catchers are Chad Moeller and Gregg Zaun after all. But the Orioles are content to keep him in the minors for now. Trying to cheat him out of a year of arbitration? Maybe. But if he's as good as they say he is, they'll just end up signing him to an Evan Longoria-type contract after a year or two. More likely Baltimore management has identified a few things they want him to work on. Tearing up the minor leagues is not an indicator of immediate success in the majors. Dallas MacPherson destroyed PCL pitching last year, just like Wood is doing now. The Marlins DFA'd him at the start of the year, and now he is playing in Japan. The difference is that D-Mac was over the hill for a minor leaguer, while Wood still has time to grow. The Angels are not breaking with any precedents by keeping him in AAA.
At least Wood is playing everyday and seeing pitches. Even playing two-thirds of the time in the major leagues would not give him the experience he needs. I've always said that his walk rate will be the key to his success. Seeing 20 pitches or so every day is the only way he's going to develop the discipline he needs to reach his potential. If he's not getting that in the big leagues, the Angels would only be holding him back by keeping him there.
Okay, so why not just boot one of the starters? Chone Figgins has no power for a third baseman, so he's the first candidate. However, he does have a .375 OBP, he's 19-for-22 in stolen bases, and he's scored 27 of the team's 211 runs. In other words, he's playing a big role in the offense that no one else on the team can fill, with the possible exception of Bobby Abreu. But Abreu is not as young or as fast as Figgins, and he has power potential, even if it hasn't shown up yet, so his bat works better lower in the order.
Well, Wood can play short too, why not replace Erick Aybar? I'm going to defend Aybar's right to play short and blame his throw-the-bat-at-the-ball moments on Mike Scioscia's direct orders to make contact and move someone over. Recently, Scioscia has been placing Aybar second, where his bat is woefully inadequate. But this isn't really Aybar's fault -- he has an OPS of .730, actually higher than the .710 OPS of the average AL shortstop. Relative to his position, he's not hurting his team at the plate. When you factor in his superior glove and good speed, you have one of the more valuable shortstops in the league. I really fault Scioscia's poor management of the two-hole here. He wants his #2 hitter to make contact, move guys over, bunt, steal, all of the typical small ball stuff. In recent years he's stacked the position with players like Aybar, Izturis, and Kendrick: aggressive contact hitters who make a lot of outs. On top of that he asks them to do things like sacrifice with no one out in the second inning. Add it up and you get a .303 OBP from #2 batters this year, and .302 OBP last year. Three-zero-two! That's as bad as Yuniesky Betancourt batting second every day for an entire year. Talk about a hole in the heart of the order. The Angels would be much better served with someone who can actually get on base hitting second, like Abreu or even Napoli. A "productive out" is a booby prize; not making an out is always the better outcome. Aybar can take his bat to the bottom of the lineup where it looks much more adequate.
Honestly, batting order is not as important as we think it is. The difference between the best-possible and worst-possible lineups is no more than one or two wins. Tinkering won't make a bad offense good or a good offense bad. But one or two wins can be all the difference in the world for a team fighting for a playoff berth, so optimizing the lineup is an important higher-order correction. Please Mike, for the love of God stop with the contact plays at the top of the order.
I see only one possible roster shuffle that includes Wood but doesn't break something else that's already working. That's removing Howie Kendrick from his starting role, putting Figgins at second (his natural position), and replacing him at third with Wood. The way Kendrick has scuffled at the plate this season, a move like this might not be too far away, but I'm going to hold off on stumping for it. For now. He might still work things out. Just please don't bat him second.
So to those at the Brandon Wood NOW! Political Action Committee, I say, keep it calm. The offense is scoring 4.9 runs per game this year -- even better than last year. Losses happen. Shutouts happen. Sweeps happen. The real problem is still in the bullpen. Maybe I'll start taking donations for a Rich Thompson NOW! campaign.