Suboptimal: May 2009 Archives

With Brandon Wood hitting .337 / .417 / .726 (!) at AAA,and the team slugging only .413 through Saturday's game, it is understandable that Angels fans are clamoring for his recall. However, it should be obvious by now that, for the time being, the Angels consider him "organizational depth" -- they'll use him in place of an injured player, but they're not going to kick anyone off the current 25-man roster to make room for him. Are they nuts? The starting third baseman is slugging .359 (and only after a recent tear), their shortstop has a .314 OBP, and the second baseman is hitting just .247 / .290 / .384. Oh, and the utility infielders have OPSes of .614 and .576. Clearly they must be mad.

Let's stop and think for a second. First of all, even Matt Wieters, pretty much the consensus top hitting prospect in all of baseball, is still chilling in AAA. His team could certainly use him, their catchers are Chad Moeller and Gregg Zaun after all. But the Orioles are content to keep him in the minors for now. Trying to cheat him out of a year of arbitration? Maybe. But if he's as good as they say he is, they'll just end up signing him to an Evan Longoria-type contract after a year or two. More likely Baltimore management has identified a few things they want him to work on. Tearing up the minor leagues is not an indicator of immediate success in the majors. Dallas MacPherson destroyed PCL pitching last year, just like Wood is doing now. The Marlins DFA'd him at the start of the year, and now he is playing in Japan. The difference is that D-Mac was over the hill for a minor leaguer, while Wood still has time to grow. The Angels are not breaking with any precedents by keeping him in AAA.

At least Wood is playing everyday and seeing pitches. Even playing two-thirds of the time in the major leagues would not give him the experience he needs. I've always said that his walk rate will be the key to his success. Seeing 20 pitches or so every day is the only way he's going to develop the discipline he needs to reach his potential. If he's not getting that in the big leagues, the Angels would only be holding him back by keeping him there.

Okay, so why not just boot one of the starters? Chone Figgins has no power for a third baseman, so he's the first candidate. However, he does have a .375 OBP, he's 19-for-22 in stolen bases, and he's scored 27 of the team's 211 runs. In other words, he's playing a big role in the offense that no one else on the team can fill, with the possible exception of Bobby Abreu. But Abreu is not as young or as fast as Figgins, and he has power potential, even if it hasn't shown up yet, so his bat works better lower in the order.

Well, Wood can play short too, why not replace Erick Aybar? I'm going to defend Aybar's right to play short and blame his throw-the-bat-at-the-ball moments on Mike Scioscia's direct orders to make contact and move someone over. Recently, Scioscia has been placing Aybar second, where his bat is woefully inadequate. But this isn't really Aybar's fault -- he has an OPS of .730, actually higher than the .710 OPS of the average AL shortstop. Relative to his position, he's not hurting his team at the plate. When you factor in his superior glove and good speed, you have one of the more valuable shortstops in the league. I really fault Scioscia's poor management of the two-hole here. He wants his #2 hitter to make contact, move guys over, bunt, steal, all of the typical small ball stuff. In recent years he's stacked the position with players like Aybar, Izturis, and Kendrick: aggressive contact hitters who make a lot of outs. On top of that he asks them to do things like sacrifice with no one out in the second inning. Add it up and you get a .303 OBP from #2 batters this year, and .302 OBP last year. Three-zero-two! That's as bad as Yuniesky Betancourt batting second every day for an entire year. Talk about a hole in the heart of the order. The Angels would be much better served with someone who can actually get on base hitting second, like Abreu or even Napoli. A "productive out" is a booby prize; not making an out is always the better outcome. Aybar can take his bat to the bottom of the lineup where it looks much more adequate.

Honestly, batting order is not as important as we think it is. The difference between the best-possible and worst-possible lineups is no more than one or two wins. Tinkering won't make a bad offense good or a good offense bad. But one or two wins can be all the difference in the world for a team fighting for a playoff berth, so optimizing the lineup is an important higher-order correction. Please Mike, for the love of God stop with the contact plays at the top of the order.

I see only one possible roster shuffle that includes Wood but doesn't break something else that's already working. That's removing Howie Kendrick from his starting role, putting Figgins at second (his natural position), and replacing him at third with Wood. The way Kendrick has scuffled at the plate this season, a move like this might not be too far away, but I'm going to hold off on stumping for it. For now. He might still work things out. Just please don't bat him second.

So to those at the Brandon Wood NOW! Political Action Committee, I say, keep it calm. The offense is scoring 4.9 runs per game this year -- even better than last year. Losses happen. Shutouts happen. Sweeps happen. The real problem is still in the bullpen. Maybe I'll start taking donations for a Rich Thompson NOW! campaign.

The bell tolls for thee

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Regardless of your feelings about the Red Sox, it was tough watching David Ortiz this week. Not because I feel sorry for him; he'll make more money this year than I will in my entire life. It was tough because he is an unpleasant reminder of the eventual fate of all big sluggers, including, possibly, one Vladimir Guerrero. They can't all be Barry Bonds and walk off the field nearly at the height of their powers, in the midst of a storm of controversy, PED-use allegations, indictments on federal perjury charges -- okay, bad example. But Ortiz was 1-for-the-series in Anaheim this week, the only hit being a bloop single to right field barely out of Kendrick's reach. The futility culminated with a spectacular 0-7 performance with 3 K's on Thursday afternoon, including 12 runners left on base. He was credited with an RBI for his bases-loaded HBP on Tuesday, so I guess there's something to be said for putting a 300-pound body in the batter's box just to take pitches, even if he is about as effective as Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar both sewn up into one jersey and forced to crowd the plate. But I could gain a bunch of weight and do that too, and no one is offering me millions of dollars for my time.

It's hard to believe this guy is just a little more than two years apart from hitting 54 HR in a single season. But he's 33, and big-bodied one-tool players have not aged well historically. Excepting a resurrection like Carlos Delgado seemed to experience last June, Ortiz will become the new Cecil Fielder: this decade's cautionary whale for big men on the wrong side of 30. Sorry Travis. Ryan, you're next. Prince, you're big enough to fill even your daddy's shoes. But what about Vlad?

The current ZiPS projections are not terribly kind to Guerrero, who aged a year in one day when we learned that he's really 34 and not 33. ZiPS has him hitting around .300 / .365 / .490 this year, with 15-20 HR. That's still pretty good, but it's not the heart-of-the-order terror Angels fans expect him to be, and it is presumably only downhill from there. This leaves big questions about his future contract status. Given that teams are shying away from high-priced veterans, Jayson Stark suggested that Guerrero will be an unpopular free agent candidate, which could work in the Angels' favor. Vladimir Guerrero is not David Ortiz; when he was younger, he was a lean, athletic five-tool outfielder who once stole 40 bases in one season. He's obviously not that now -- last year it looked like his knees couldn't even bend -- but just maybe he's the kind of unique player who can bounce back and put the final polish on his legacy. He could be a low-risk, high-reward kind of investment. Then again, Red Sox fans probably think the same thing about Ortiz. The first thing hitters lose when they get old is bat speed, and Guerrero is such an aggressive and wild hitter that even a small loss could make him completely ineffective at the plate. He wouldn't even be good for taking pitches, which is something most other old-ass sluggers can still do well. Just ask Jim Thome.

Obviously I don't know the answer to the question, otherwise I would have been hired by some major-league front office for much more than I'm making now. The Angels have a tough situation ahead of them: do they remain loyal to one of the few greats in franchise history, or do they play the risk-averse economic downturn card? Do they play hardball, and does he end up signing with another team on the relative cheap? In any case, as much as I'd love to see Guerrero ride off into the sunset, someone else is going to have to become the big bat in the lineup very soon. Maybe if Brandon Wood gets a little more seasoning -- but that's another argument in itself.
Those are the words of Jeff Francoeur, spoken like a player with a career .312 OBP. And actually, Jeff, many ballparks do put OBP up on the scoreboard. The quote comes from a recent ESPN.com article by Jerry Crasnick, which everyone should read, including, I hope, the Angels front office. The media did a little song and dance about the Angels emphasizing plate discipline in spring training this year, but plate discipline is not a switch you can flip in a hitter's mind. It's a skill that takes years to develop, if a player develops it at all. And it is certainly not going to suddenly manifest itself in a player who has already reached the big leagues.

Plate discipline is not just about taking walks, although walks are almost always a sign of good plate discipline. It's about swinging at hittable pitches, making pitchers work for their outs, pressuring them with guys on base, among other things. Most importantly, plate discipline usually results in more extra base hits -- the numbers always show that most home runs are hit in deep counts. High OBPs cause more runs both directly (by making fewer outs) and indirectly (by the other means listed above).

Emphasizing plate discipline is also not just about moneyball or sabermetrics or pleasing kids who like calculators. This is the way the game is changing. To resist it would be like making starters throw 350 innings every year just because "it's the way they did it in my grandpa's day." Thanks Tim McCarver, but with modern medicine and pitcher management, Sandy Koufax could have pitched well into his thirties without exploding his shoulder. Wouldn't that have been worth watching?

Currently the Angels have a walk rate of 8.4%, 25th overall, which is just a shade better than the 8.0% mark they put up last year. Most of the walks end up going to four players: Figgins, Abreu, Hunter, and Napoli, who have taken 49 of the team's 77 unintentional walks. Chone Figgins is proof that change can happen. His walk rate has improved every year he's been in the league and he's currently drawing walks at a fantastic 15.0% rate. His other offensive numbers will come up sooner or later, but right now he's not hurting the team with his .368 OBP at the top of the order. I heard Torii Hunter say on XM Home Plate the other day that he feels he shouldn't swing at the first pitch after just watching Abreu take five or six pitches. Maybe there is some truth to that, since Hunter is currently walking 9.5% of the time, quite a bit higher than his 6.9% career average. He looks a little differently as a hitter than he did in Minnesota. As for Abreu, the Angels needed his bat after losing Teixeira, even if he isn't hitting balls out of the park.

I can't read Crasnick on Francoeur without thinking of Howie Kendrick. Francoeur practically looks like Adam Dunn compared with Kendrick, who's walked 32 times in 1102 big league plate appearances. This season he's walked just twice, the same number of times he's been hit by a pitch. Believe it or not, Howie is actually swinging less than he has at any other point in his career. It's like someone (i.e. Mickey Hatcher) told him to try taking more pitches, but he hasn't really developed the skill to be a selective hitter. He ends up taking when should have swung and swinging when he should have taken. Even with three seasons under his belt, he looks more confused at the plate than ever. Maybe in his case he would be better off just being the hitter he is. He might never post an OBP over .330, but 50 doubles and a .320 batting average is no small achievement either. Hopefully he straightens himself out soon.

As for the Angels as an organization, they'll need to continue emphasizing plate discipline to their young players for a much longer period of time than spring training. Brandon Wood will be their critical test. With plate discipline, he could be Evan Longoria, but without it, he'll be Kevin Kouzmanoff. I am personally not upset that he's been sent down to AAA again. He needs to see pitches every day. The future of the franchise depends on it.

Definitely Maybe

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Aside from last Friday's horrific bullpen fail, which I had the displeasure of witnessing in person (more on that another time), the Angels have really come to life over the last ten days. The team continues to get performances from their overmatched AAA-caliber starters that I can only describe as "gutsy"; Matt Palmer's outdueling of the Yankees $161-million man on Saturday is the best example. The offense continues to pour on the runs at a rate last year's 100-win team could have only dreamed about for two-thirds of the season, even without an "impact bat" like Teixeira or Guerrero. The bullpen is only the reason the Angels are 6-2 in the last ten days instead of 7-1 or even 8-0. But 6-2 ain't bad, and a win tonight brings the team to .500. No small accomplishment considering that this team is still waiting for its marquee players to return.

The question is: can it hold up? If I was advising you on your fantasy team, I'd probably tell you to sell now. The Angels have the third highest BABIP in the AL (.321, one point behind Texas and Toronto) but the third lowest line-drive rate (17.4%, just ahead of Minnesota and Seattle). Only Minnesota hits more ground balls and fewer fly balls than the Angels, and only three teams hit those fly balls out of the park at a slower rate. Their walk rate is fifth-lowest in the AL even though they see the second-fewest strikes. Add it all up and you have a team that is scoring more runs than it should. On the defensive end, Angels' fielders rate toward the bottom end of most metrics, and Angels pitchers are second worst at striking guys out. That does not look good when combined with an unspectacular GB/FB ratio (1.08) and unsustainably low line-drive and home-run-per-flyball rates (17.7% and 8.4%). On a more positive note, the pitching staff has a higher than average BABIP (.315), and the bullpen BABIP is just stupid (.380!). Those both will come down, and by a lot, in the bullpen's case. Still, even though the bullpen should improve, overall pitching efficiency should decrease. Emphasis on the word should.

I'm not advising anyone's fantasy team. Fantasy people will often rely on highly random stats like BABIP to predict future performance: everything suggests that the Angels have overperformed recently, so they have to start underperforming so that everything averages out, right? Well, not really. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads ten times in a row, the chance of getting heads on the eleventh try is still 50%. It doesn't change because you got lucky, and the same is true of the Angels. They're just as likely to do well this week as they were last week. "Regression to the mean" isn't a cosmic force pushing statistics back toward their averages, it just means that if you flipped the coin a million times, you would almost certainly get half a million heads and half a million tails. Anything can happen on a single flip. The reason we watch baseball is because statistics tell us nothing about a single game or a single at-bat. Everyone knows this, but professional fantasy prognosticators need a product to sell you, and so many gurus are not as forthright about it as they could be. Who's going to pay for information like, "the Angels should starting doing worse...but maybe they won't...the only definite thing is that they'll probably do worse, maybe"? Worst horoscope ever.

Fortunately, all this whole analysis becomes irrelevant if the Angels have any luck with players returning from the DL. The Salt Lake Bees just need to hold the fort down for a few more weeks, and as much as my inner stat conscience knows the odds are against it, it's a lot of fun to watch guys like Loux and Palmer really reaching above themselves. So keep watching. Just don't put down any money.



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