The bell tolls for thee

Regardless of your feelings about the Red Sox, it was tough watching David Ortiz this week. Not because I feel sorry for him; he'll make more money this year than I will in my entire life. It was tough because he is an unpleasant reminder of the eventual fate of all big sluggers, including, possibly, one Vladimir Guerrero. They can't all be Barry Bonds and walk off the field nearly at the height of their powers, in the midst of a storm of controversy, PED-use allegations, indictments on federal perjury charges -- okay, bad example. But Ortiz was 1-for-the-series in Anaheim this week, the only hit being a bloop single to right field barely out of Kendrick's reach. The futility culminated with a spectacular 0-7 performance with 3 K's on Thursday afternoon, including 12 runners left on base. He was credited with an RBI for his bases-loaded HBP on Tuesday, so I guess there's something to be said for putting a 300-pound body in the batter's box just to take pitches, even if he is about as effective as Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar both sewn up into one jersey and forced to crowd the plate. But I could gain a bunch of weight and do that too, and no one is offering me millions of dollars for my time.

It's hard to believe this guy is just a little more than two years apart from hitting 54 HR in a single season. But he's 33, and big-bodied one-tool players have not aged well historically. Excepting a resurrection like Carlos Delgado seemed to experience last June, Ortiz will become the new Cecil Fielder: this decade's cautionary whale for big men on the wrong side of 30. Sorry Travis. Ryan, you're next. Prince, you're big enough to fill even your daddy's shoes. But what about Vlad?

The current ZiPS projections are not terribly kind to Guerrero, who aged a year in one day when we learned that he's really 34 and not 33. ZiPS has him hitting around .300 / .365 / .490 this year, with 15-20 HR. That's still pretty good, but it's not the heart-of-the-order terror Angels fans expect him to be, and it is presumably only downhill from there. This leaves big questions about his future contract status. Given that teams are shying away from high-priced veterans, Jayson Stark suggested that Guerrero will be an unpopular free agent candidate, which could work in the Angels' favor. Vladimir Guerrero is not David Ortiz; when he was younger, he was a lean, athletic five-tool outfielder who once stole 40 bases in one season. He's obviously not that now -- last year it looked like his knees couldn't even bend -- but just maybe he's the kind of unique player who can bounce back and put the final polish on his legacy. He could be a low-risk, high-reward kind of investment. Then again, Red Sox fans probably think the same thing about Ortiz. The first thing hitters lose when they get old is bat speed, and Guerrero is such an aggressive and wild hitter that even a small loss could make him completely ineffective at the plate. He wouldn't even be good for taking pitches, which is something most other old-ass sluggers can still do well. Just ask Jim Thome.

Obviously I don't know the answer to the question, otherwise I would have been hired by some major-league front office for much more than I'm making now. The Angels have a tough situation ahead of them: do they remain loyal to one of the few greats in franchise history, or do they play the risk-averse economic downturn card? Do they play hardball, and does he end up signing with another team on the relative cheap? In any case, as much as I'd love to see Guerrero ride off into the sunset, someone else is going to have to become the big bat in the lineup very soon. Maybe if Brandon Wood gets a little more seasoning -- but that's another argument in itself.