I've been looking into player projections a bit more recently, and I was wondering what each team within the West Division looked like as of this moment, with free agent signings and trades as of today (12-30-08). The projections are from the excellent website fangraphs.com, and were calculated using Bill James' formula.
Angels
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AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| C | Napoli | 449 | 82 | 113 | 22 | 1 | 31 | 85 | 73 | 129 | 11 | .252 | .356 | .512 |
| 1B | Morales | 537 | 67 | 156 | 30 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 28 | 72 | 1 | .291 | .326 | .456 |
| 2B | Kendrick | 612 | 87 | 194 | 49 | 4 | 11 | 82 | 20 | 96 | 18 | .317 | .339 | .464 |
| 3B | Wood | 447 | 63 | 113 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 67 | 34 | 123 | 10 | .253 | .306 | .470 |
| SS | Aybar | 436 | 63 | 117 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 19 | 53 | 17 | .268 | .299 | .362 |
| LF | Figgins | 627 | 101 | 180 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 71 | 110 | 43 | .287 | .360 | .372 |
| CF | Hunter | 593 | 87 | 159 | 37 | 1 | 25 | 93 | 48 | 117 | 16 | .268 | .323 | .460 |
| RF | Guerrero | 593 | 94 | 186 | 37 | 1 | 31 | 111 | 64 | 77 | 8 | .314 | .381 | .536 |
| DH | Rivera | 317 | 40 | 89 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 21 | 41 | 1 | .281 | .325 | .467 |
| 4611 | 684 | 1307 | 268 | 19 | 162 | 670 | 378 | 818 | 125 | .283 | .338 | .455 |
Bill James really likes Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood. If those three players are able to put up these numbers next season, in addition to the projected rebound of Vladimir Guerrero and a healthy season from Howie Kendrick (612 AB!), the Angels offense should be just fine without adding any free agents. In fact, the 162 home runs being projected by the starting nine are 3 more than the entire team hit last season.
A's
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| C | Suzuki | 539 | 66 | 148 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 60 | 53 | 71 | 2 | .275 | .340 | .384 |
| 1B | Barton | 475 | 69 | 120 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 56 | 69 | 80 | 2 | .253 | .347 | .389 |
| 2B | Ellis | 506 | 72 | 131 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 56 | 52 | 79 | 10 | .259 | .328 | .401 |
| 3B | Chavez | 555 | 80 | 143 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 67 | 117 | 4 | .258 | .338 | .458 |
| SS | Crosby | 567 | 72 | 138 | 35 | 1 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 106 | 8 | .243 | .308 | .372 |
| LF | Holliday | 605 | 111 | 192 | 43 | 4 | 29 | 108 | 66 | 116 | 19 | .317 | .385 | .545 |
| CF | Sweeney | 538 | 71 | 151 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 66 | 51 | 84 | 11 | .281 | .343 | .400 |
| RF | Buck | 512 | 69 | 140 | 36 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 58 | 106 | 9 | .273 | .347 | .445 |
| DH | Cust | 466 | 77 | 116 | 22 | 0 | 29 | 78 | 106 | 166 | 0 | .249 | .388 | .483 |
| 4763 | 687 | 1279 | 280 | 20 | 153 | 638 | 575 | 925 | 65 | .269 | .347 | .432 |
No wonder the A's were looking to sign Rafael Furcal to play short, as Bobby Crosby doesn't seem to fit into the Oakland style of hitting. Jason Giambi would be a huge upgrade over Daric Barton at 1B. The projected numbers for Matt Holliday's look good considering the were questions as to how he'd perform outside of Colorado.
Rangers
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| C | Teagarden | 448 | 64 | 107 | 18 | 2 | 25 | 61 | 50 | 153 | 2 | .239 | .315 | .455 |
| 1B | Davis | 566 | 107 | 171 | 42 | 3 | 40 | 118 | 43 | 147 | 8 | .302 | .351 | .599 |
| 2B | Kinsler | 581 | 108 | 169 | 39 | 3 | 22 | 82 | 58 | 77 | 25 | .291 | .355 | .482 |
| 3B | Blalock | 529 | 77 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 22 | 83 | 50 | 95 | 3 | .282 | .344 | .476 |
| SS | Young | 654 | 94 | 194 | 37 | 3 | 14 | 85 | 51 | 109 | 8 | .297 | .348 | .427 |
| LF | Murphy | 527 | 73 | 146 | 38 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 47 | 84 | 9 | .277 | .336 | .450 |
| CF | Hamilton | 619 | 103 | 192 | 36 | 4 | 36 | 126 | 68 | 116 | 9 | .310 | .378 | .556 |
| RF | Cruz | 443 | 74 | 123 | 25 | 2 | 28 | 84 | 50 | 106 | 18 | .278 | .351 | .533 |
| DH | Catalanotto | 338 | 45 | 94 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 40 | 2 | .278 | .337 | .417 |
| 4705 | 745 | 1345 | 293 | 25 | 208 | 755 | 447 | 927 | 84 | .286 | .348 | .491 |
These guys can hit. Six of the starting nine are projected to hit at least 20 HR and drive in 80 runs, with Chris Davis looking to lead the team in home runs with 40 after hitting 17 in under 300 AB in 2008. I'm not too sure Catalanotto will be the starting DH, especially with so many better options out there. If the Rangers are able to upgrade the DH spot in the batting order, Texas' offense could be devastating. Good thing for Angels' fans the Rangers don't have any pitching.
Mariners
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| C | Clement | 520 | 67 | 133 | 35 | 2 | 20 | 78 | 57 | 117 | 0 | .256 | .329 | .446 |
| 1B | LaHair | 156 | 18 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 42 | 0 | .250 | .316 | .391 |
| 2B | Lopez | 551 | 70 | 155 | 34 | 2 | 14 | 75 | 24 | 62 | 4 | .281 | .311 | .426 |
| 3B | Beltre | 605 | 82 | 165 | 36 | 2 | 27 | 92 | 47 | 104 | 8 | .273 | .325 | .473 |
| SS | Betancourt | 576 | 70 | 162 | 36 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 19 | 47 | 6 | .281 | .304 | .399 |
| LF | Balentien | 426 | 62 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 20 | 69 | 45 | 112 | 7 | .239 | .312 | .444 |
| CF | Gutierrez | 369 | 60 | 100 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 29 | 79 | 10 | .271 | .324 | .428 |
| RF | Suzuki | 679 | 103 | 217 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 54 | 48 | 71 | 34 | .320 | .365 | .402 |
| DH | Johjima | 400 | 43 | 106 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 20 | 37 | 2 | .265 | .300 | .408 |
| 4282 | 575 | 1179 | 245 | 17 | 123 | 541 | 304 | 671 | 71 | .275 | .323 | .427 |
The Mariners have a long way to go if they want to compete in the near future.
Comparison
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Angels | 4611 | 684 | 1307 | 268 | 19 | 162 | 670 | 378 | 818 | 125 | .283 | .338 | .455 |
| A's | 4763 | 687 | 1279 | 280 | 20 | 153 | 638 | 575 | 925 | 65 | .269 | .347 | .432 |
| Rangers | 4705 | 745 | 1345 | 293 | 25 | 208 | 755 | 447 | 927 | 84 | .286 | .348 | .491 |
| Mariners | 4282 | 575 | 1179 | 245 | 17 | 123 | 541 | 304 | 671 | 71 | .275 | .323 | .427 |
Obviously, these projections only show part of the equation for each teams' success. I've been analyzing projections for a long time and I still don't trust pitcher's projections. In my opinion, pitcher's projected stats are unreliable due to the multiple factors that impact a pitcher's season.
Hey Jim:
A couple things that are confusing to me. I don't see how Rivera would actually have LESS at bats compared to Wood or Napoli. I see Rivera as getting at bats in 6 out of 7 games a week (better hitter than Sarge Jr. after all) as compared to the spot starts that Wood will get over Figgins, or the catching platoon between Napoli and Mathis (though it would be great if Nap started 5 out of 7 games a week in my opinion).
I really hope your projections for Howie are correct. I hope he's actually not as brittle as he seems to be if the last two seasons are any indication. (The hit by pitch on the wrist in 07 was a very bad break, I'll admit.)
I'm optimistic for the Halos this coming year...even without the swine, self-pimping, lefty slugger at first base (he who shall not be named) leaving us for the Yankee$.
David
David,
The projections I posted are from fangraphs.com, and I agree with you about Rivera's numbers. The projection must have been run before Rivera was re-signed because he should see significant playing time in 2009.
I'm really surprised by Kendrick's projections. Over 600 at-bats is going to very optimistic, but you're right about 2007. It wasn't his fault he was hit on the wrist (twice), but the hammie problem he had in 2008 hopefully is gone.
Thanks for your comments!