ALDS Game 1 - Angels vs Red Sox

Here it is...finally!  After waiting for more than 2 weeks since clinching the West, the Angels head into the post season for the 4th time in five years and they're facing their arch-rival Boston Red Sox.

I've teamed up with Derek Hixon from Sawxblog to go over this first round match-up.  I've checked out his site a few times, just to see what the opposition is up to, and it's a very good fan site.  Regardless of if you're an Angels fan or a Red Sox fan, be sure to check it out.  Here are our takes on the two teams and who we think is going to win...any why:

Manager

Red Sox:
Terry “Tito” Francona may quite possibly already be the greatest Red Sox manager of all-time. After five seasons as the Manager of the Boston Red Sox Tito has compiled a record of 470-340, good enough for a wining percentage of .580. In his three trips to the postseason thus far he’s helped the Red Sox win it all two times and has amassed a 22-9 record during that time. Everyone knows that being the Manager of the Red Sox is a high stress job with killer scrutiny from both the fans and press alike, however Francona seems to handle it all with a dry sense of humor, and consummate professionalism. His ability to use his baseball instincts, and also play ball with the “stat geeks” of the front office has made him the prototypical contemporary manager of a new generation of baseball managers. Simply put, ballplayers love to play for him, and fans rarely are pointing fingers directly at him, which is a testament to his abiity to do his job.

Angels:
Angels' manager Mike Scioscia, regarded as one of the best managers in the majors, is a by-the-book type of manager who uses "small ball" and aggressive base running to put his team in a position to score runs.  He sometimes does things that make Angels' fans scratch their heads, such as earlier this season when he'd platoon Kotchman even though Kotchman hit lefties better, or sticking with Matthews for so long while he sucked (anyone remember Steve Finley?) and batting him second in the line up.  Scoiscia is also predictable in the use of his bullpen where each reliever has his role and is seldom used in other circumstances - Arredondo in the 7th, Shields in the 8th, and Rodriguez to close the game in the 9th.  Not that this is a bad thing, as a solid bullpen has been a strength of the Halos for the past few years.

Offense

Red Sox:
The Boston Red Sox have not only had a famous team over the past few seasons, but they’ve also had a famous offense. Most notably missing from this offense in the 2008 playoffs is the bat of the selfish, and now California resident, Manny Ramirez. However don’t be fooled into thinking that the Red Sox still can’t hit the ball. With the trade of Manny it seemed that all players on the team picked up the slack, which helped solidify the club much more as a team a la 2004. One of my favorite stats in baseball to truly judge how good a team is, is by looking at their run differential. And aside from the Chicago Cubs (+184) the Red Sox have the best run differential in all of baseball at +151 compared to the Angels at +68. They also scored the second most runs in the American League with 845 (Rangers 901). Which is nearly 100 more runs then the Angels who had 765. If the Red Sox played in the AL West, where only the Angles were over .500 the game tonight would most likely be being played in Fenway Park. This all being said, the recent injuries of both Iron Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew and his posse loom large of the Red Sox and their post season chances. They’re just not the same team without these two bats in the lineup and this may help level the playing field quite a bit if they can’t play. How healthy they are, and the extent they’re used will be a large part in determining the legacy of the 2008 Red Sox.

Angels:
The Angels' offense is built to put pressure on the other team's defense.  By taking the extra base, going first to third on base hits, and stealing bases (2nd in the league), the Angels' offensive attack takes advantage of the other team's mistakes.  The Angels seem to do just enough to win, having the league's best record in one run games over the last 2 years.  I've read in a few places that the Angels win because they are lucky.  I don't believe in luck and I think the Angels win because they put themselves in the position to win by playing aggressive, fundamental baseball.   I hate to sound like a naive fan who says the team has "chemistry" or are "clutch", but I have a hard time explaining the Angels success using stats because they don't do anything exceptionally well...except win.  Other than stolen bases, the Angels rank in the middle of the league in almost all offensive categories.  Rarely drawing walks (12th in the league) or working deep into counts, the Angels hitters rely on timely hitting to score runs.  With the additions of Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter sandwiched around Vlad Guerrero, the Angels have one of the most potent middle-of-the-order line ups in the American League.  Teixeira, the perfect #3 hitter, has the ability to drive in runs with his extra base power, and can get on base ahead of Guerrero and Hunter giving them more RBI opportunities.  During the 53 games Teixeira has played for the Angels, he has gotten on base by either a hit or walk in 46, and has scored 39 times.  With the emergence of Mike Napoli's hot bat during the final two months, the team has another source of run production from the bottom half of their batting order, giving the Angels a top-to-bottom balanced attack.

Defense

Red Sox:
It seems that after 2003 the Red Sox front office and management truly decided to embrace the gray cloud that is baseball defensive statistics. This again was most prevalent in the 2004 trade of Nomar Garciaparra. Since that organization changing trade the Red Sox have been one of the best defensive clubs in the game, which has been a large part to them not only winning games, but championships. The Red Sox are tied with two other AL East teams for first in the AL in fielding percentage at .986 with the Angels and Devil Rays right behind them at .985. When talking about their defense you have to start with former gold glove winner, and Red Sox captain, Jason Varitek. Not only does V-Tek call a good game, but he’s a rock behind the plate. His arm may not be what it used to be, but for the guy who’s caught more no-hittters then anyone in MLB history, he’s smart enough to make up for it. This brings us back to the health of Mike Lowell, because when healthy, the Sox infield is just plain sick. Lowell is another rock at the hot corner, the gold glove winner Youk NEVER seems to make an error at first, and Dustin Pedroia may win his first gold glove this year. SS is the Sox weakest infield position with Jed Lowrie/Alex Cora, however both of their range is good, and they’re by no means a liability. This is also the one area where the subtraction of Manny Ramirez is an addition for the Sox. Any combination of Crisp, Ellsbury, Bay, and Drew gives you a sick looking outfield with arguably three CF.

Angels:
The infield defense for the Angels been fantastic up the middle, led by slick-fielding Erick Aybar and solid Howie Kendrick.  The addition of Gold Glove winner Mark Teixeira at first base makes the infield even better.  After watching Chone Figgins at third this year, I truly think he is under-appreciated.  He plays steady defense, able to make the routine plays and has a strong arm from across the diamond.  The outfield defense may not be as good as some people think.  Torii Hunter can cover a lot of ground in center, and makes highlight reel catches at the wall, but both Garret Anderson and Vlad Guerrero are slowing down because of age or injury. There is no rocket arms out there, but the range of Coco and Jacoby more then make up for their “Damon-esque” arms.

Starting Pitching

Red Sox:
This is the area where the Red Sox were supposed to have a dominant edge over their competition this year. A funny thing happened on the way to the oblique farm though, and the health of Josh Beckett has thrown a monster sized wrench into the equation. And I won’t even touch on how Curt Schilling was lost for the entire season. That said our starters for Game 1 & 2 of the ALDS are two of the best still. Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are a combined 34-9 on the season, all along Lester has arguably been the best pitcher on the staff. The lefthander looks like a caged tiger on the mound, and his coming out party this year has been a fun one to watch. Matsuzaka on the other hand has pitched a season like none other before him, allowing runners but not runs. He’s a pitcher with a reputation of rising to the occasion in big games and I expect nothing short of him in this series. If Dice-K can keep his pitch count down, he very well may stay undefeated on the road this season. Like I said in the beginning Josh Beckett is a huge question mark, however if healthy enough, watch out. He’s the greatest big game pitcher of his generation, and I find it hard to see him falling on his face this postseason. Like Lowell and Drew, Beckett is the last piece the Sox need to try and repeat as champs.

Angels:
Heading into this season, the ability of the Angels starting pitching was unknown since their top 2 pitchers were starting the season on the disabled list.  Angels ace John Lackey missed the first 6 weeks of the season recovering from a strained forearm and Kelvin Escobar was lost for the season with a shoulder injury.  What was looked at as a weakness in the pre-season became one of the Angels biggest strengths when Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders filled out one of the best major league starting rotations in 2008.  Using just 7 starters all season, the Angel rotation of Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Jon Garland, and Jered Weaver combined to win a league leading 73 games and compiled an ERA of 3.97.  The 3 pitchers that the Boston hitters will face (Lackey, Santana, and Saunders) had a combined ERA of 3.54 while holding hitters to a .243 batting average.  As ESPN's Keith Law states, "John Lackey and Ervin Santana are as good a 1-2 as any other playoff team can run out there, giving them an edge particularly in Game 2 matchups featuring Santana."

Bullpen

Red Sox:
The Red Sox bullpen may be the weakest link when looking at all the parts of the team. However if you’ve been paying attention lately you’ve seen them shore up their approach and they seem to be gelling now more then ever. The emergence of Justin Masterson was the catalyst for this turnaround, and with Oki and Delcarmen falling into suit I feel a lot better. That said, if/when Timlin enters the game I may be watching through my fingers. I may give the advantage to the Angels here overall, however the first few innings of the Red Sox bullpen may set the tone. That, and they’re a heck of a lot better musicians!

Angels:
The Angel bullpen had the 4th best ERA in the American League and the 6th best in all of baseball.  Led by Scot Shields and rookie Jose Arredondo, the Halo pen lost only 11 games (not counting Justin Speier's record as he is not on the playoff roster) while winning 25.  Even 37 year-old Darren Oliver has pitched well, posting an ERA of 2.88.  The Angels excellent record in one run games (31-21) is based largely on the bullpen's ability to hold a lead.  Compared to Boston's record in one run games (22-23), the Angels bullpen may be the deciding factor in the series.

Closer

Red Sox:
I say this is all seriousness, and yes, I know I’m a homer to a point, but I’d rather have no-one else, Mo and K-Rod included, then Jonathan Papelbon coming in to close the game. Time and time again Paps has proved himself, and he’s done it on the largest of stages. Interestingly enough, unlike the bullpen, he’s looked more human then ever down the stretch. I hope this is an aberration, but me and ever other Sox fan out there has a tiny seed in our head where we’re definitely a little nervous. It’ll be interesting to see how many 4+ outs he’s asked to record, where the potential for rockiness always seems to increase.

Angels:
Okay, everyone knows Angels' closer Francisco Rodriguez broke the major league season saves record this year with 62 saves, but rarely did Frankie come into the game and completely shutdown the opposition.  You have to give him credit for consistently getting the job done, but it was almost always a nerve wracking experience watching him pitch the 9th inning as he gave up a hit or issued a walk, or sometimes both before getting the third out.  This may be a problem for the Halos against the Red Sox as they most certainly have the ability to make a pitcher pay for his mistakes.  In order for the Angels to win the series, Rodriguez will need to step it up and record "clean" saves by shutting down the Sox hitters.

Bench

Red Sox:
The Sox bench is nothing make your jaw drop, however with it’s mix of young and old, it seems to be just as good a combination as there was in 2007. With the like of Sean Casey and Alex Cora you’re going to get leadership and prepared players, and you just hope this rubs off on the younger guys. The addition of Mark Kotsay has also been huge for the Sox, and he just seems destined to do something big this post-season.


Angels:
The Angel bench will be comprised of Gary Matthews Jr, Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, Jeff Mathis, Kendry Morales, and Rob Quinlan.  To be honest, nothing really special here.  Wood may get a start or 2 at shortstop depending on how good Aybar looks, but other than that, the Angels bench shouldn't be a factor in this series.

Homefield Advantage

Red Sox:
While the Angels have the actual homefield advantage in the series, it’s undeniable to discredit how well the Sox play in Fenway. Fenway Park is becoming synonymous with October baseball and the Red Sox have one of the best records in the league at 56-25. If Josh Beckett’s healthy (knocking on wood) Game 3 could be very, very nice for the Sox.

Angels:
The Angels are essentially the same team on the road as they are in Anaheim as they had the identical home/away record (50-31) in 2008.  Their run differential is roughly the same (home +29, away +39) regardless of where they play.  The advantage they will have at home will come from the fact that the Red Sox are a completely different team away from Fenway.  The Sox had the second best home record (56-25), but were three games below .500 on the road (39-42).  This difference is evident by their home/away run differential of +124 at Fenway, and +31 when playing at the other team's stadium. 

Prediction

SawxBlog:
Red Sox win series 3-0
Game 1 - Score: 6-3 - Winning Pitcher: Jon Lester - Losing Pitcher: John Lackey - Save: Jonathan Papelbon
Game 2 - Score 11-4 - Wining Pitcher: Daisuke Matsuzaka - Losing Pitcher: Ervin Santana - Save: Jonathan Papelbon
Game 3 - Score 5-4 - Winning Pitcher: Justin Masterson - Losing Pitcher: Joe Saunders - Save: Jonathan Papelbon

The Halo is Lit:
Angels win series 3-1
Game 1 - Score: 7-5  Winning pitcher: Jose Arredondo - Losing pitcher: Jon Lester - Save: Frankie Rodriguez
Game 2 - Score: 4-2  Winning pitcher: Ervin Santana - Losing pitcher: Dice K - Save: K-Rod
Game 3 - Score: 2-6  Winning pitcher: Josh Beckett - Losing pitcher: Scot Shields
Game 4 - Score: 5-1  Winning pitcher: John Lackey - Losing pitcher: Jon Lester