Recently, during one of the game threads on Halos Heaven, someone made a comment about Francisco Rodriguez getting a "nervous" save. What was meant by a "nervous" save (NS) was that K-Rod always seemed to get the save, but he allowed base runners causing the save to be risky. The comment got me to thinking about how often Rodriguez allowed base runners during his save opportunities compared to other closers. I went through the top 20 closers (based on Saves) and counted the number of times during a save opportunity that the pitcher allowed more than one hitter to get on base, either by a combination of hits and/or walks. Here's what I found:
| Closer | Saves | NS | NS% |
| Mariano Rivera - NYY | 32 | 2 | 6% |
| Kerry Wood - CHC | 28 | 2 | 7% |
| Trevor Hoffman - SD | 27 | 3 | 11% |
| Billy Wagner - NYM | 27 | 3 | 11% |
| Jose Valverde - Hou | 39 | 5 | 13% |
| Jonathan Papelbon - Bos | 35 | 6 | 17% |
| Joakim Soria - KC | 34 | 6 | 18% |
| Bobby Jenks - CWS | 27 | 5 | 19% |
| Brian Fuentes - Col | 26 | 5 | 19% |
| Salomon Torres - Mil | 26 | 5 | 19% |
| Francisco Cordero - Cin | 26 | 5 | 19% |
| Joe Nathan - Min | 36 | 7 | 19% |
| Kevin Gregg - Fla | 29 | 6 | 21% |
| Brian Wilson - SF | 36 | 8 | 22% |
| Francisco Rodriguez - LAA | 54 | 12 | 22% |
| Brandon Lyon - Ari | 26 | 6 | 23% |
| George Sherrill - Bal | 31 | 9 | 29% |
| Troy Percival - TB | 27 | 8 | 30% |
| Brad Lidge - Phi | 33 | 10 | 30% |
| B.J. Ryan - Tor | 26 | 8 | 31% |
| 625 | 121 | 19% |
K-Rod was a bit worse than the average top 10 closer percentage-wise, but ranked 15th out of 20 (ranking lower than former Angels Kevin Gregg and Bobby Jenks). Apparently K-Rod was making Angels' fans more nervous than the average closer. One of the interesting results was Philadelphia's Brad Lidge's numbers. He has the second highest NS percentage, but has yet to blow a save. I guess he likes pitching in high pressure situations - if he doesn't inherit one, he makes his own. Anyway, these numbers got me thinking about Frankie's quest for the single season saves record (57) and what other closers would project to do if they were in Rodriguez's place. This is a pretty big assumption, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how other pitchers would do if their save conversion rate was used in the same number of save situations K-Rod had been in. Frankie has converted 54 saves out of 59 opportunities (92%). Below are the projected save totals for the same top 20 closers as above:
| Closer | Saves | Save Opp | Projected |
| Brad Lidge - Phi | 33 | 33 | 59 |
| Mariano Rivera - NYY | 32 | 33 | 57 |
| Brian Wilson - SF | 36 | 39 | 54 |
| Joakim Soria - KC | 34 | 37 | 54 |
| Francisco Rodriguez - LAA | 54 | 59 | 54 |
| Troy Percival - TB | 27 | 30 | 53 |
| Bobby Jenks - CWS | 27 | 30 | 53 |
| Jonathan Papelbon - Bos | 35 | 39 | 53 |
| B.J. Ryan - Tor | 26 | 29 | 53 |
| Joe Nathan - Min | 36 | 41 | 52 |
| Trevor Hoffman - SD | 27 | 31 | 51 |
| Jose Valverde - Hou | 39 | 45 | 51 |
| Brian Fuentes - Col | 26 | 30 | 51 |
| Kerry Wood - CHC | 28 | 33 | 50 |
| Brandon Lyon - Ari | 26 | 31 | 49 |
| George Sherrill - Bal | 31 | 37 | 49 |
| Salomon Torres - Mil | 26 | 32 | 48 |
| Francisco Cordero - Cin | 26 | 32 | 48 |
| Billy Wagner - NYM | 27 | 34 | 47 |
| Kevin Gregg - Fla | 29 | 38 | 45 |
Brad Lidge would project out to have already broken the record, that is if he hadn't given everyone a heart attack from allowing so many base runners. Also notice Mariano Rivera would have tied the record at this point in the season, as would Soria and Wilson. Rivera is one of the all-time greatest closers, and this year his conversion rate is outstanding (one blown save). If the Yankees had provided Rivera with as many opportunities K-Rod has had, he would probably have a greater chance of getting the saves record.
I'm not trying to rip on K-Rod, he's an outstanding closer, but he's been afforded more save opportunities than any other closer. If one of the other top closers were in the same situation, the results would probably be the same...if not better.
Daily Notes:
- Joe Saunders didn't pitch great last night, but he did pitch well enough to get the win had Scot Shields been able to hold the lead in the 8th inning. I have a hard time understanding the need for managers to use their pitchers only in their designated roles. Shields has been the primary set-up guy for K-Rod, usually pitching just the 8th inning. Last night, Jose Arredondo entered the game with one out in the 7th and needed just 9 pitches to get the two batters he faced. Why didn't Arredondo come back out and pitch the 8th? I suppose if Shields had gotten out of the 8th without giving up any runs I wouldn't be asking this question, but he gave up a home run to Miguel Cabrera to tie the game. This also applies to K-Rod and only pitching the 9th inning. If he's the best pitcher in the pen, why not use him when the game is really on the line, like say, the 8th inning and 2 runners on with less than 1 out? Now that would be a save, not entering the game with no one on. Anyway, maybe this subject is a post for another day.
- Angels' rookies Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez are still struggling at the plate, but are providing good defense. Last night Wood made a spectacular play on a ground ball to his right. Wood made a diving, backhanded stop, got to one knee and started a 6-4-3 double play. Later in the same inning, Rodriguez made a great sliding catch in foul territory.
- Magic number: 7 (with 25 games remaining). The Angels are .5 game behind Tampa for home field advantage.
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