A 100 Win Season & Playoff Preview - Part 1

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Finally!  I always hate seeing the regular season end, but I am so looking forward to this season's playoffs.  This year's Angel team is healthy, rested and seems like they're focused to go deep into the post-season, and I'm really anticipating an exciting playoff series starting with the Red Sox.  Below are the Game 1 match-ups for both teams (thanks to Stats, Inc.).

On their third try the Halos got to the 100 win plateau on Sunday.  The Angels finished their best season ever by shutting out the Texas Rangers 7-0 yesterday.  This is the first time in Angels history that they reached 100 wins, and although it didn't make a difference in the play-off rankings, it was an important goal to reach as not many teams win 100 or more games in a season.  There have only been 83 teams to win at least 100 games in the history of major league baseball, and of those 83 teams only nine of failed to win a pennant. 

Obviously, the purpose of winning those games is to win the World Series and the Angels take their first step in achieving that goal on Wednesday when they face the Red Sox in Anaheim for Game 1 of the ALDS.  In 2008, the Angels played 9 games against last year's World Champs and won 8 times, last losing on April 22 in Boston.  Since then, the Halos have reeled off 8 straight wins (including a 3 game sweep in Boston back in July) against the Sox and have outscored them 61-33.  Game 1 will feature Angels' ace John Lackey facing Boston's #2 pitcher Jon Lester.  Josh Beckett was originally scheduled to start the opener, but is sidelined with a strained oblique muscle in his side and will likely start Game 3 in Boston.  

Game 1 ALDS Wednesday October 1st, 7pm at Anaheim

Lester.jpg vs. Lackey sm.jpg
Jon Lester John Lackey


John Lackey's numbers against the Boston Red Sox

  G W L S IP ERA H ER HR BB SO
Career 13 3 6 1 76.1 5.54 97 47 13 30 58
2008 2 2 0 0 16.0 2.81 7 5 3 4 10
                       

In 12 starts at Anaheim during 2008, Lackey is 5-3 with an ERA of 4.29

  AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA
Mark Kotsay 34 9 3 0 0 0 1 7 .265
David Ortiz 30 10 3 1 2 9 4 6 .333
Jason Varitek 24 5 3 0 0 2 3 10 .208
Coco Crisp 22 4 0 0 2 2 2 3 .182
Alex Cora 19 5 2 0 0 1 1 2 .263
Mike Lowell 19 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 .158
Julio Lugo 18 4 1 0 0 0 2 4 .222
Kevin Youkilis 17 5 0 0 2 4 0 4 .294
J.D. Drew 16 5 1 1 0 1 1 3 .313
Dustin Pedroia 12 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 .417
Jacoby Ellsbury 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000
Sean Casey 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000
David Ross 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333
Totals 224 56 15 2 6 20 16 48 .250


Lackey hasn't fared too well against Boston in his career, but his 2008 season was excellent having won both of his starts and holding the second highest scoring team to just 5 runs.  Lackey was terrible in his last start of the season last Friday against Texas, giving up a season high 10 earned run in just 2.2 innings.  During the second half of the season, Lackey was a .500 pitcher winning 6 of his 12 starts and posting an ERA of 4.03.

Jon Lester versus the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  G W L S IP ERA H ER HR BB SO
Career 4 1 1 0 19.2 7.78 33 17 2 9 8
2008 1 0 0 0 5.0 7.20 9 4 2 2 1
                       
Lester is 5-5 with an ERA of 4.09 in 16 road starts.

  AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA
Vladimir Guerrero 10 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 .400
Maicer Izturis 8 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 .375
Chone Figgins 8 2 1 0 0 3 0 2 .250
Robb Quinlan 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 .143
Garret Anderson 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429
Gary Matthews Jr. 6 3 0 0 2 3 1 3 .500
Howie Kendrick 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .400
Juan Rivera 5 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 .400
Jeff Mathis 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .250
Erick Aybar 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 .667
Mike Napoli 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000
Torii Hunter 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .667
Mark Teixeira 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000
Reggie Willits 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.000
Totals 74 27 9 0 2 14 7 11 .365


Lester's one start against the Angels in 2008 was comparable to his career average when facing the Halos by having a +7.00 ERA and walking more than he struck out.  The left-hander has been very good during the second half of 2008, holding his opponents to a 2.95 ERA and winning nine of his 13 starts.


Prediction:
Angels win Game 1 by a score of 7-5. 
Winning pitcher - Jose Arredondo 
Losing pitcher - Jon Lester 
Save - Francisco Rodriguez

This is a short preview, I'll go over my thoughts on the Game 1 line-ups and complete series review tomorrow, but here are some expert predictions (I'll look for more and post them when I find them):

ESPN -
Jason Stark: Red Sox 3-2
Buster Olney: Angels 3-2
Rob Neyer: Red Sox 3-2
Keith Law: Red Sox 3-1
Bob Klapisch: Angels 3-2

Daily Notes:

  • Rookie reliever Kevin Jepsen was chosen over veteran Justin Speier for the final playoff roster spot.  Speier had been effective lately, but had a disappointing 2008, posting an ERA of 5.53 in 68 innings.  Jepsen has pitched just 8.1 innings for the major league squad, but was impressive in 2 stops this season in the minors.  Throwing a combined 54.2 innings, while striking out 56, walking 30 and posting an ERA of 1.81.  Speier will still be eligible for the ALCS, as will pitchers Dustin Moseley, Jason Bulger, and Shane Loux who were also left of the ALDS series roster, if Scioscia decides a change is needed.
  • There were no other big surprises in the Angels play-off roster.  Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales will be on the bench, but I predict Wood will see a decent amount of action as he has had a good last month of the season both with the bat and on defense. 
  • Catcher Mike Napoli continued his torrid September yesterday by going 3-for-3 and hitting his 20th home run of the season.  Napoli also drove in 4 runs.  His hot hitting may have earned him a few extra at-bats in the DH spot when Jeff Mathis is behind the plate during the post-season.
  • Here are some interesting polls on ESPN about the Angels-Red Sox series.  As of Monday morning 57% of those polled thought the Angels would beat Boston.
  • I'm waiting to hear back from a writer of this Red Sox blog.  A couple weeks ago I sent an email to the blog to see if he'd be interested in a blog-debate about who's going to win the series between the Angels and Sox.  He liked the idea, but I'm still waiting to hear back as to how we'll do it.

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