The Halo Is Lit(OLD)

Talking With The Angels Front Office...Sort Of

2009-01-31T15:52:29Z

I hate making phone calls. When I was married to my first wife I used to call her and ask her to call people for me. I'd get a long breathy sigh (and I'm sure an accompanying eye roll), but she'd usually make the call for me. My current wife just gives me the sigh (and eye roll), so I've had to pull up my panties more often and make my own calls...sometimes (I still haven't made that doctors appointment).

Anyway, I recently sent emails to 3 people in the Angels' front office - Assistant GM Ken Forsch, Eddie Bane, Director of Scouting, and Abe Flores, Director of Player Development. I sent the emails for a couple reasons; I wanted to see if I actually had the correct addresses, I was curious if anyone would respond, and I was interested in the answer to my question. The question I sent was "What is it about a career minor league pitcher who have good, and sometimes great minor league seasons that doesn't translate into major league success. I've noticed that specifically relief pitchers can have a few dominating seasons in AAA and never get an opportunity in the majors. Is that because they are lacking a certain skill set? Or they've never developed an "out pitch"? Or are they just successful against the weaker minor league players and not the true prospects? Or is it something else?"

And guess what happened. I received replies from each of these gentleman. I don't know why I was surprised, the Angels are a classy organization and I've heard of other people getting responses and even phone calls from front office personnel, but I'm just some schmuck who writes (and rather poorly according to some comments) for a lowly blog that few have ever read. Plus, I didn't send my question to three "staffers" or secretaries...excuse me, assistants. They were sent to three people who have more important things to do - things like figuring out who's going to be the 5th starter, or analyzing other organizations for potential trade opportunities rather than responding to stupid questions. Anyway, here's the problem my phobia ran into. Mr. Flores' response to my email was, "Jim- Call me, Abe" and he enclosed his phone number. Holy crap. The Angels director of player development wants me to call him...on the phone. Needles to say, his response to my question is not included in this article. I apologize for being such a wimp, but the voices in my head won't let me pick up the phone.

Career Minor League Pitchers
I've written before about my fascination with minor league pitchers who seem to have major league stuff, but rarely get the opportunity to use that stuff with the big club. And if they do get a chance, what happened that they didn't stick. How can a pitcher repeatedly put up good minor league numbers, sometimes dominating minor league numbers, and not get a chance to pitch in the majors? In my previous posting about this subject, an acquaintance of mine who works as a major league scout gave me his opinion on the subject. He said that some of the older pitchers who do really well at 3A take advantage of the weaker hitters in the league and lack the "out pitch" needed to succeed in the majors. They don't have the fastball with movement, or the curveball they can throw for strikes, or good enough command of the strike zone to consistently get big league hitters out. Ken Forsch said pretty much the same thing in his response to my email, "In the minor leagues, hitters tend to swing at more bad pitches. Especially breaking balls in the dirt. Good Major League hitters lay off that pitch and wait for a good count to hit in." He also added, "Lack of major league stuff with good control at the minor league level. Most cases a breaking ball they can get over when behind in the count. The control plays a role at the Major League Level but if the fast ball without movement allows a hitter to sit on the breaking ball the pitcher has no chance."

Another factor in a career minor leaguer's path to the majors is opportunity at the big league level. "One quick answer sometimes with these "career minor leaguers" is circumstances. I believe we had a couple of pitchers on our Salt Lake club last year that could have helped some other teams. I believe that some of the other teams should have taken a longer look at the Kasey Olenberger's etc that we had in Salt Lake. Unfortunately for some of the guys having success in 3A and getting stuck behind a quality big league staff is poor luck.", replied Eddie Bane. (Interestingly, Olenberger was recently released by the Angels). Bane added, "The organization that you perform in also plays a major factor as it is really really hard to pitch in the big leagues for the Angels, Yankees or Red Sox. That is just a fact of life. You have to be better than a lot of really good pitchers to even get a shot in a prospect laden organization. If you ask around with real baseball people they will acknowledge that these 3-4 systems are the ones that are really tough to advance in. Just another "luck" or "hang with em" part of the game. All in all you like to think that in the end it will even out and a guy stuck in Salt Lake or 3A with one of the other quality systems will get a chance, but as I said this is a tough racket and the major leagues are the best of the best and you have to be awfully good to even touch the Major Leagues." If a pitcher is part of a very deep organization, his opportunity to move up can be blocked for several years. After seven seasons in the minors and having not been placed on the 40-man roster, a player is eligible for minor league free agency. After seven years, he may have already be tagged as a career minor leaguer mainly because of the organization he plays for, and not because of his pitching abilities. This is a situation I've never thought of before, and one I can see happening. If a pitcher is drafted out of college at the age of 21 or 22, by the time he is eligible for free agency, he's 29 years-old and too old to be thought of as a "prospect".

One other factor is timing. Bane also has the theory that doing well at the onset of your career has an effect on if you'll be a major leaguer or minor leaguer, "The hardest level is from 3A to the Major Leagues by far. When a player or pitcher does get the opportunity to pitch or play in the big leagues they do not have a limitless time to show their ability. A bad month of games could relegate a pitcher back to 3A. That is tough news, but it is really "big boy" baseball at the major league level. At the big league level all that matters is your final numbers." This is what I believe happened to one of the subjects of my earlier article, Jason Childers:

Signed as an amateur free agent by the Milwaukee Brewers in 1997. Childers made his major league debut with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2006 at the age of 31 after having an impressive spring training. The perceived problem with Childers is he doesn't throw hard, as his fastball tops out at 90 mph, and he pitches to contact relying on late movement to get outs. However, his career minor league stats show he does a good job getting the strikeouts and has good command of the strike zone. Childers has a .89 K/IP rate and strikes out almost 3 batters for every walk. In 2005 at Triple-A Richmond, Childers led all Braves minor-leaguers with 16 saves and had a team-low 2.09 ERA in 38 outings and yet didn't get a chance with the big league club. In a 2006 article from the St. Petersburg Times, Childers stated, "I think they're scared of my velocity. If I got called up and struggled, maybe they'll feel like they'll look bad." This was prophetic. He struggled in his first 5 appearances that year with the Rays and was sent down at the end of April. Never getting the chance to return.

Obviously, if Childers had been successful in those 5 appearances he would have stuck around longer. "There are no more prospects at the big league level. It is all and totally about results. They can add another pitch or get better life on their fastball or better command, but the bottom line is that when given the chance to be a big leaguer they need to take advantage because their turn might not come around again.", Bane added.

Teams are always looking for the "next big thing". A few seasons ago it was the moneyball philosophy exploiting the lack of understanding of the importance of on-base-percentage. Currently it seems teams are focusing on the importance of team defense rather than just the pitchers' ability alone to reduce the number of runs scored. Possibly one of the next things clubs will look into is the unexploited minor league players who are toiling at triple-A. Players who may have the ability to succeed in the majors and who are more cost effective. Let other teams spend $4.75M for the Justin Speiers in the league. Pitchers whose low-leverage innings could be replaced by a player making the league minimum and pitching just as effectively (Jason Bulger, Shane Loux). Oakland seems to have taken this approach with their organization. Last season, after spending parts of 6 season in the minors, 28year-old Brad Ziegler was given the opportunity to show what he had. All Ziegler did was break the major league record for innings pitched at the beginning of a career without giving up a run.

(Special thank you to the three gentleman for replying to my email. Mr. Flores, I'll call you back once I complete treatment).

The Perfect Draft

2009-01-22T14:36:37Z

This was not my idea. While cruising around the internet looking for something interesting, I found this intriguing article by Joe Posnanski about having the perfect draft. It's a "what-might-have-been" article about the Kansas City Royals and their 1999 draft and what kind of team they'd have if their club had used their pick a bit more wisely. Please read the article, it's very good (as is all of his writing). In the opening sentence he writes that you can do this with any team, so I did. And of course I picked the Angels, but not the 1999 draft. Instead I went with the 2000 draft mainly because of how bad it was for the Angels. Of the first 15 picks made by the Halos, 2 players have spent time in the major leagues, Chris Bootcheck and Bobby Jenks.

I've written before about how hard it is to predict major league players from high school and college draft eligible players. From the years 1995 to 2005, the Oakland A's had the highest percentage of draft picks play in the major leagues and that percentage was a whooping 15.6%. Cleveland had the worst draft record with just 7.9% of their picks making to the big leagues (by the way, the Angels had a 9.6% rate). There was a lot written about the home-grown talent of the Phillies and the Rays during the World Series, but the Angels actually had more home-grown players on their roster last season, so apparently they've done well drafting and signing players who can help them at the upper levels:

Team	Drafted/Signed	Other Org.	Pct.
Angels	28	13	68%
Boston	15	32	32%
Tampa	19	27	41%
Chicago White Sox	10	29	26%
Philadelphia	16	24	40%
Los Angeles	23	23	50%
Chicago Cubs	17	25	40%
Milwaukee	17	27	39%
Average	145	200	42%

Here's the 2000 draft if it were perfect:

Angels first pick (10th overall): LHP Joe Torres
Could have been: 2B Chase Utley (15th overall)

Comment: The Angels took a high school pitcher from Florida with their first pick in the draft, the Phillies took a 2B from UCLA five picks later. Neither are currently with the Angels.

Angels supplemental pick (20th overall): RHP Chris Bootcheck
Could have been: RHP Adam Wainwright (29th overall)

Angels 2nd round pick (50th overall): C Jared Abruzzo
Could have been: OF Grady Sizemore (75th overall)

Comment: Mmmmm Grady Sizemore (insert Homer Simpson gurgling sound)

Angels 3rd round pick (80th overall): SS Tommy Murphy
Could have been: RHP Chris Young (89th overall)

Angels 4th round pick (110th overall): RHP Chuck Thames
Could have been: 3B Garrett Atkins (137th overall)

Comment: There had previously been rumor that the Angels were looking into trading for Atkins, they could have just drafted him 9 years ago.

Angels 5th round pick (140th overall): RHP Bobby Jenks
Could have been: RHP Bobby Jenks

Comment: They got this one right...at least until they waived him following the 2004 season.

Angels 6th round pick (170th overall): RHP Brandon O'Neal
Could have been: RHP Taylor Buchholz (175th overall)

Angels 7th round pick (200th overall): SS Aaron Hill
Could have been: RHP Dontrelle Willis (223rd overall)

Comment: Okay, the last Angels didn't miss too much with those last two picks, except Buchholz is looking to be a very good bullpen guy.

Angels 8th round pick (230th overall): LHP Adam Pace
Could have been: RHP Brandon Webb (249th overall)

Angels 9th round pick (260th overall): OF Jason Coulie
Could have been: 3B Edwin Encarnacion (274th overall)

Angels 10th round pick (290th overall): RHP Matt Hensley
Could have been: 1B Brad Hawpe (317th overall)

Angels 11th round pick (320th overall): LHP Garrett Patterson
Could have been: OF Corey Hart (321st overall)

Comment: There were no significant players (so far) selected in the 12th and 13th rounds, however the following players were selected later in the draft, Rich Harden (510th overall), Jason Bay (645th overall), Nate McLouth (749th overall), Chad Cordero (769th overall), Ian Kinsler (879th overall), Adam LaRoche (880th overall), and Russ Martin (1035th overall).

Angels 14th round pick (410th overall): OF Kevin Jenkins
Could have been: OF Ryan Church (426th overall)

Angels 15th round pick (440th overall): LHP Geoffrey Smart
Could have been: RHP James Shields (466th overall)

Angels 16th round pick (470th overall): SS John Raburn
Could have been: SS Josh Willingham (491st overall)

Angels 17th round pick (500th overall): C Mike Napoli
Could have been: C Mike Napoli

Comments: There! It only took 500 picks to get a player who's contributing on the major league roster.

So, when it's all added up...after 50 rounds, the Angels have one player on their roster who's making a difference. Here's what the line-up could have looked like:

C - Mike Napoli
1B - Adam LaRoche
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Garrett Atkins
SS - Brandon Wood
LF - Corey Hart
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Valdimir Guerrero

SP- John Lackey
SP - Brandon Webb
SP - Ervin Santana
SP - Joe Saunders
SP - Cliff Lee

That's a pretty good line-up. As Mr. Posnanski writes-

"One draft. Of course, no team gets all the draft picks right. No team gets half the draft picks right, or one-third, or one-quarter or even one out of every twenty right. But it's possible...If you are right on the draft, really right, you can beat every team out there no matter how many billion they might spend."

Obviously, this is a fantasyland scenario as no team can get every pick in every round right. And I'm not trying to pick on the Angels since every team has had a poor draft, but if the Angels had been right more than once in the 2000 draft, we'd be talking more about dynasty than what might have been.

Been Busy, Been Cold

2009-01-15T13:48:33Z

Wow, it's been a week since my last post? Time sure flies when you're freezing your ass off (from where I'm sitting I can look out our front window and see the thermometer on the bank...it says "-18°". And that's without the wind-chill factor). Actually I've been sidetracked by two other projects, plus there really hasn't been much Angels news to comment on. I never intended to post things on this blog just for the sake of posting something. If I felt I had nothing to comment on then I wouldn't. There are many, and I mean MANY blogs out there that post articles without content (kind of like this one if I keep this up). It's like that guy at a party who can't close their mouth, "Help I'm talking and I can't shut up". I just don't want to be one of those blogs, I want people who come here to read something actually get something to read and not just a re-hash of other blogs/websites/newspapers/etc.

Angel Videos
As I wrote above, I've been working on two other projects. The first is another Angels/Downfall video. If you don't know what I mean, here are some links to previous videos in the series: Angels Front Office Part One, Part Two and Part Three. I had been working on another video last month, but since I'm not as creative as I'd like to be...or apparently most people, I hit a dry spell and left it alone. Over at Halos Heaven, someone made a fanpost regarding the videos and asked who did them and why not make another. So I went back and pieced together another short one. Here it is:

Another Website
The other project I've been working on is another website. I like this blog network that's been set up here at Blogs by Fans, but I have zero freedom to do anything other than post articles. I can't change how the page looks by changing themes, or add links, or even change what color the background is without asking the site administrator if he can do it for me. I've created a couple other sites and found it was fun. I wanted to add more to this site that dealt with Angels history and possibly some minor league stuff, but since I can't, I decided to create a different site. A site that tracks closers and bullpen usage. The site is: Who's The Closer. If you visit this site you'll notice, besides the fact its far from a "professional" site, that it's still being put together. There's content there, but I wanted to get it up right away and add content as I go. The site is mainly targeted to fantasy baseball team owners looking for information on team's bullpen situations and save opportunities. If you're into this sort of thing please give the site a visit and let me know what you think.

Red Sox Signings
You gotta give the Red Sox some props. I know it's hard to do mainly because...well, because they're the Red Sox, but I admire the way they think. Last week they went out and signed four free agents to incentive laden deals. The four players, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, and Brad Penny were signed for a total of $12.5M for next year. Obviously, as with all incentive deals, if the player has a good season he gets paid more, but then the team is also getting more. I like this. I like this a lot. Rather than going out and spending $12.5M on one player, the Sox get four. I admit there's a risk that all four won't be on the roster for any great length of time, as all are returning from one sort of injury or another, but if only one player bounces back and has the season they are capabale of when healthy, the gamble pays off. From an Angels point of view, what was wrong with Rocco Baldelli? Suppose, at worst-case, he's only able to play 2 or 3 games a week. For $.5M that's a deal, especially if he's replacing the uninspiring Reggie Willits, or Rob Quinlan. IF Baldelli breaks down shortly after the season starts and is not seen again during the season, are we led to believe there's not at least 50 players playing in triple-A who can't put up the numbers (or better) than Willits or Quinlan are capable of? In a recent interview with the Daily Pilot, Angels' GM Tony Reagins stated the Halos were going with their young players. I agree with that, as long as he's talking about Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales. Willits and Quinlan aren't young players the Angels should be giving time to, they are role players at best who can be easily replaced. Why not use one of their roster spots for a player that has potential to make an impact? One who possibly has some upside? Currently, the Angels need a #5 starter. Sure, they can go with Dustin Moseley, or one of the rookie guys, but why not take a chance on a pitcher who could actually do better than Moseley? A player like Kris Benson or Mark Mulder. Either of these pitchers could be signed cheap, and if healthy, could possibly provide a much larger return than Dustin Moseley. If the reason the Angels stick with players like Willits, Quinlan and Moseley is out of loyalty, I admire that. But at some point the organization needs to be loyal to its fans by putting the best team on the field.

No Lefties? No Problems.

2009-01-08T19:53:51Z

Of the 132 team who have made the play-offs in the last twenty years, none of them have done it without at least one left-handed hitter. In fact, of those 132 teams, only 2 teams have had just one left-hander as the average number of lefties on a play-off team has been about 5. There have only been seven teams (out of 40) who have had less than 4 left-handed batters make it to the World Series. Why do I bring this up? As of right now, the Angels do not have a left-handed batter on their major league roster. I found this out a couple weeks ago while I was looking into Angels' split stats and noticed that the only two lefty bats last season are now gone (Garret Anderson and Casey Kotchman). Earlier this week, I read Orange County Register's Earl Bloom's blog post about this subject here: Who's Left? Angels Seem Unbalanced. This put me on a quest to find out if there's any significance to lefty/righty/switch hitters on play-off teams. I've mentioned before that I'm not a mathemagician (yes, that's spelled right...inside joke) when it comes to analyzing stats, all I have that is useful towards the accurate analysis is common-sense. I get that if A=B and B=C, then A=C. But I also get that More Money = Better Player and Better Players = More Wins, but More Money ≠ More Wins (see Yankees). I went back over the last twenty seasons and listed the amount of left-handed and switch hitting players (min 50 AB) each play-off team had on their rosters. I also listed the league rank each team had for On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) against both left and right-handed pitchers.

On average, the play-off team with the worst OPS against right-handed pitching won the World Series.

I have no idea why this is, but the winning teams OPS rank was an average of 10.05 during the regular season against right-handed pitchers. The teams who lost in the WS had an average rank of 9.50, while all play-off teams had an average rank of 9.47. Another thing I found interesting was the teams who lost in the league division series had the best OPS average ranking (9.18) against right-handed pitchers of all play-off teams. In other words, the team who did the worst against right-handed pitchers did better in the play-offs.
The team who won the WS had the best average OPS ranking against left-handed pitchers of any play-off team.

The eventual WS winner averaged a 9.65 regular season ranking against southpaws, while the losers had an average ranking of 10.90. All of the play-off teams had an average rank of 10.58.

So combined with the findings above, the eventual World Series winner was the best play-off team against left-handed pitching and the worst play-off team against right-handed pitching. I find this very unusual considering a team has roughly 3 times more plate appearances against right-handed pitching then they do against left-handed pitchers, yet the play-off team who does worse against righties goes further and wins more championships.
Teams who won the WS had the lowest average number of left-handed hitters and the highest average number of switch-hitters (min 50 AB during the regular season) than the other play-off teams.

World Series winners averaged 4.50 left-handed hitters and 2.95 switch-hitters compared to 5.10 lefty and 2.60 switch-hitters for the team who lost. This is consistent with the division series too, as the team who won also had a lower average number of left-handed hitters and more switch-hitters. However, in 2008, the two teams with the most left-handed hitters faced each other in the Series (Tampa Bay had 10 and Philadelphia was tied with Boston with 7 lefties).

This study doesn't take in to account any teams' pitching stats. So it's very possible a weak hitting team with lights-out pitching can win the World Series. An example of this is the 1995 Atlanta Braves who won the World Series after leading the major leagues with a team ERA of 3.44, and in spite of finishing 21st in the major leagues in runs scored (the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians in the World Series even though the Indians scored almost 200 more runs than the Braves during the regular season). What does this mean for the Angels and their lack of left-handed hitting? I don't think it means anything. Although the Angels lack a lefty hitter, they do have 7 switch-hitters who saw time on their major league roster last season. Of those 7, four saw at least 290 at-bats, with Kendry Morales looking to get significantly more playing time in 2009. Also in the Angels favor is the signing of Brian Fuentes. Fuentes was the best left-handed free agent reliever available, able to shutdown either left-handed or right-handed hitters. The way I see it, if the typical World Series winner is the best team against left-handed pitchers, having the best left-handed pitching would be the way to win. Especially if you're a team like the Angels who don't look to be one of the top hitting clubs.

An Old Bill James Book

2009-01-05T16:02:01Z

The other day I was going through some boxes of books, looking for some of my old Bill James Abstracts. While digging through the boxes, I found This Time Let's Not Eat The Bones, a "best of" the Bill James Abstracts without the numbers. Although this book, and the books it references, are over 20 years old, the theories James proposes and the conclusions he come to with are just as relevant today. I found some interesting stuff -- for example, I found on of my old paycheck stubs that had been used as a bookmark. The stub was dated 5-21-89 and showed that I was making more in 1989 than I am in 2009. Depressing. Anyway, I also found:

Strikeouts, Effects On Runs Scored

"Strikeouts have a negligible effect on runs scored; the belief that a strikeout is an especially negative out because it freezes base runners in essentially baseles insofar as it applies to major league baseball...The reason for this is that while strikeouts don't advance runners, they also don't lead to double plays. When a ball is put in play but an our results, the negative side effects (the runs lost because of double plays) balance the positive side-effects (that extra runs can result because of base runners' advancement)."

"A study on pages 288-89 of the 1986 Baseball Abstract suggested that there was a loss of about one run for a team for each hundred strikeouts (as contrasted to other outs). That means, as a frame of reference, that Dave Kingman probably cost his team in his career about eight runs by his strikeouots, if he is compared to a player of the same batting average and other batting statistics but who struck out only a normal amount."

I thought this was interesting because lately there have been comments made about Adam Dunn and his excessive amount of strike outs. When comparing Kingman and Dunn the only consistent hitting trait they have is power. Kingman's career OBP is a meager .302, while having 6 seasons with an OBP of under .300. I doubt if Kingman played today, he'd last 16 season as he did in the 70's and 80's. I wish I had the actual formula that James uses to calculate the effect of strikeouts, but just by going on his written comments, Dunn's strikeout rate costs his team about 2 runs a season. Which I think is greatly offset by the fact he gets on base almost 40% of the time. I'm not advocating the Angels go out and sign Dunn, but I am one who feels his hitting ability is under-valued.
Free Agent, Impact On Team Signing

"A study on pages 244-46 of the 1986 Baseball Abstract examined the impact if signing or losing a major league free agent on the clubs fortunes. After drawing up a list of the major free agent movements of the years 1974-84, I tracked what happened to four teams: the team which lost the player, the team which signed him, the team whose record over the previous two years was most similar to the team which lost him, and the team with the record most similar to the team which signed him."
"The study showed that the teams signing free agents gained no advantage at all in the first year following, but gained a small advantage over a period of years - a matter of two or three games a year. The teams losing free agents were essentially unaffected by the loss unless they sustained a series of free agent losses, in which case they were usually devastated by the losses."

I wonder if this study were run today if the results would be the same as teams are more aware of player's abilities based on advanced statistics (the Moneyball effect) and how this would effect which free agents to sign. What I mean is, let's go back to Dave Kingman and his free agency. In 1984, the Oakland Athletics signed Kingman to a free agent contract which paid him $850,000. This, coming after a season in 1983 with the Mets that saw him hit 13 HR while batting .198 and an OBP of .265. Kingman lasted three seasons in Oakland, hitting exactly 100 HR and driving in a little over 300 runs, but would he have been given an opportunity if he were playing in this era of OBP-importance? And if not, how would that effect the study? This might be something to look into a bit more and it might be about the right time of year to fill with a "study".
The Amateur Draft

I thought this was interesting because the Angels have picked up a few extra draft picks in this year's draft due to losing K-Rod, Teixeira and Garland, and the loss of their 33rd pick with the signing of Brian Fuentes. Basically, the Angels have about 5 picks in the top 50. What can they expect to get with those picks? Here's what Bill James wrote regarding the amateur draft:

"What is the chance that a number one draft pick will turn out to be a superstar? The draft usually produces one superstar somewhere among the top fifty picks. The chance of getting that player with a number one draft pick is about one in eighteen. The chance of getting a superstar with a number ten draft pick is about one in thirty. The chance of getting a superstar with a number 50 pick is about one in 130. What is the chance of getting a star player? With the first pick, about one in five. With the tenth pick, about one in nine. With the fiftieth pick, about one in sixty. What is the chance of getting at least a good ballplayer? With the first pick, a little better than 50 percent. With the tenth pick, about 1 in 3. With the fiftieth pick, about 7 percent."

The Angels do not have a top 10 pick next draft, their first picks will be back-to-back at 25 and 26 thanks to the two New York ball clubs. With 5 picks in the top fifty, the Angels can expect to have at least a 30% chance of getting one player who is "good" (if I figured it out right), and a 5 in 130 chance of landing a superstar. In my opinion, based on this information, too much importance is given to the loss or gain of a draft pick. It's almost like someone giving you a lottery ticket and hoping to win at least something, something that makes an impact. Something that's more likely not to pay off. While I understand the financial benefits of drafting and developing a star player, I think I'd rather sign Brian Fuentes than hope the 33rd pick has an impact on the team. A pick that has a little better than 1 on 60 chance of becoming a star player.

Off The Radar Trade Thoughts

2009-01-01T17:40:43Z

Angels' GM Tony Reagins has stated that the club is not persuing free agent hitters Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell. It sounds like the team is going to head into the 2009 season with the offense it has today, with the only free agent acquisition being relief pitcher Brian Fuentes.

There are many places to read about possible Angels trades, and many of them have the same trade talks involving the same players. I wanted to look at a few players that haven't been mentioned on the Angels' trade radar, or have been mentioned, but not to the extent of Jake Peavy. Be warned however, as I'm sometimes stumped by deals teams are able to pull off and I have no idea what it takes to make real-life trades...so please let me know if I'm way off base or if you have a better deal.

My thoughts on the state of the Angels' roster are the Angels' batting order is predominately right-handed. Although they do have 7 switch-hitters on their major league roster, they have no left-handed hitters. So if I were the Angels GM I'd be looking to acquire a left-handed or switch-hitting corner OF or corner infielder, and/or a #5 starter. Here are the players I'd be kicking the tires on...in no particular order:

Orioles
Aubrey Huff ($8M - 2009) - In 2008, Huff had his best season since 2003 when he hit 32 HR and batted .304 primarily being used as the Orioles DH. Huff is 32-years old and in the walk year of his contract which calls for a reasonable salary of $8M. An average defender at third and first base, Huff also is capable of playing RF, but is below average in the outfield. Proposed deal: Dustin Moseley for Aubrey Huff and cash.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Huff	33	533	72	151	33	2	23	83	3	48	81	.283	.343	.482

Cubs
Rich Harden ($7M - 2009) - The Cubs have been rumored to covet Chone Figgins. Why not deal Figgins, who is also in his walk year, for the oft-injured Harden? Harden could fill the #5 rotation spot vacated by the departure of Jon Garland, while trading Figgins would open up third base for Brandon Wood. Proposed deal: Chone Figgins for Rich Harden.

Projected	Age	W	L	IP	H	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Harden	28	8	4	134	102	43	146	56	2.99

Astros
Lance Berkman ($29M - 2010 NTC) - Berkman would be my primary trade target as he'd fill the hole left by Mark Teixeira. Although Berkman is 4 years older than Teixeira, he hits for more power (career slugging pct of .560 vs .541), gets on base more often (OBP .413 vs .378), and he can steal a base (18 last season). Plus, Berkman is a very good fielding first baseman. It's unclear if the Astros are in a rebuilding mode or if they think they can compete in 2009. Last season they made a deadline deal for Randy Wolf while they were 12 games behind (and tied for last in the NL Central), so it's hard to figure out what they're doing. If the Astros would deal Berkman, and he'd be willing to waive his no trade clause, I'd propose: Brandon Wood, Jeff Mathis and Nick Adenhart for Lance Berkman.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Berkman	33	579	104	171	39	2	33	113	11	109	119	.295	.407	.541

Yankees
Johnny Damon ($13M - 2009) - The pluses for Damon are he bats left-handed, he has the ability got on base (OBP .375 in 2008), can lead-off in the event Figgins is dealt, can play a slightly above average leftfield, and is in his walk year. If the Angels don't re-sign him after 2009, which they probably wouldn't, there's the opportunity of gaining 2 draft picks when he signs elsewhere. The negative thing about Damon is his age as he turned 35 last month. Proposed deal: Justin Speier for Johnny Damon.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Damon	36	556	96	156	29	3	14	65	22	62	82	.281	.353	.419

Nick Swisher ($21M - 2011) - To me, Nick Swisher is "Adam Dunn-lite". You can expect Swisher to hit about half as many HR as Dunn, get on base around the same rate, and have almost the same batting average. Swisher is a switch-hitter who can adequately play all 3 outfield positions and first base. Proposed deal: Two mid-grade prospects for Nick Swisher.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Swisher	29	463	78	111	27	1	23	71	2	80	122	.240	.352	.451

Rockies
Todd Helton ($52.3M - 2011 NTC) - I'm going out on a limb with this one, as Helton had season ending back surgery during 2008 and prior to that, his season wasn't anything to be too thrilled with. Although Helton's days of hitting 30+ home runs are gone, he does get on base at a good rate and plays an above average defensive first base (pre-surgery). However, Helton will turn 36 during the 2009 season, will earn an average of over $17M the next 3 years and has a full no trade clause. Proposed deal: Gary Matthew Jr. (if he'd waive his no trade clause) for Todd Helton; or Justin Speier for Todd Helton and cash.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Helton	36	476	79	145	36	1	17	74	2	93	73	.305	.418	.492

Pirates
Adam LaRoche (Arbitration Eligible) - Left-handed hitting LaRoche is an above average defender at first base with a career OPS+ of 114. LaRoche made $5M last season and will probably see an increase for 2009 after arbitration causing the salary-cutting Pirates to look to deal. The Pirate minor league system ranks near the bottom and they may be willing to take a couple mid-level prospects in exchange for LaRoche. Proposed deal: Tyler Chatwood and Jose Perez for Adam LaRoche.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
LaRoche	30	551	76	149	40	1	26	91	1	60	135	.270	.342	.488

Cardinals
Rick Ankiel (Arbitration Eligible) - Ankiel, who is his walk year entering 2009, can play all three outfield positions, although he doesn't play them very well. His 2008 season was hampered by to what was believed to be an abdominal strain, but was diagnosed as a sports hernia ending his season in early September. The Cardinals were rumored to be willing to deal Ankiel for some pitching from the Braves or Yankees earlier this off-season. Proposed deal: Dustin Moseley for Rick Ankiel.

Projected	Age	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ankiel	30	502	77	132	24	2	31	96	3	43	110	.263	.321	.504

These players, as I wrote above, are way off the Angels' radar. But that was the point of this article. I was looking at players who were possibly available, at a reasonable cost in players, prospects, or salary and could help the club. Let me know what you think, or if you have any thoughts on possible other players who might be available.

More Fun With Projections

2008-12-30T14:53:31Z

I've been looking into player projections a bit more recently, and I was wondering what each team within the West Division looked like as of this moment, with free agent signings and trades as of today (12-30-08). The projections are from the excellent website fangraphs.com, and were calculated using Bill James' formula.

Angels

		AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
C	Napoli	449	82	113	22	1	31	85	73	129	11	.252	.356	.512
1B	Morales	537	67	156	30	1	19	79	28	72	1	.291	.326	.456
2B	Kendrick	612	87	194	49	4	11	82	20	96	18	.317	.339	.464
3B	Wood	447	63	113	26	1	23	67	34	123	10	.253	.306	.470
SS	Aybar	436	63	117	21	4	4	45	19	53	17	.268	.299	.362
LF	Figgins	627	101	180	26	6	5	56	71	110	43	.287	.360	.372
CF	Hunter	593	87	159	37	1	25	93	48	117	16	.268	.323	.460
RF	Guerrero	593	94	186	37	1	31	111	64	77	8	.314	.381	.536
DH	Rivera	317	40	89	20	0	13	52	21	41	1	.281	.325	.467
		4611	684	1307	268	19	162	670	378	818	125	.283	.338	.455

Bill James really likes Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood. If those three players are able to put up these numbers next season, in addition to the projected rebound of Vladimir Guerrero and a healthy season from Howie Kendrick (612 AB!), the Angels offense should be just fine without adding any free agents. In fact, the 162 home runs being projected by the starting nine are 3 more than the entire team hit last season.

A's

		AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
C	Suzuki	539	66	148	30	1	9	60	53	71	2	.275	.340	.384
1B	Barton	475	69	120	27	4	10	56	69	80	2	.253	.347	.389
2B	Ellis	506	72	131	26	2	14	56	52	79	10	.259	.328	.401
3B	Chavez	555	80	143	34	1	25	87	67	117	4	.258	.338	.458
SS	Crosby	567	72	138	35	1	12	64	53	106	8	.243	.308	.372
LF	Holliday	605	111	192	43	4	29	108	66	116	19	.317	.385	.545
CF	Sweeney	538	71	151	27	2	11	66	51	84	11	.281	.343	.400
RF	Buck	512	69	140	36	5	14	63	58	106	9	.273	.347	.445
DH	Cust	466	77	116	22	0	29	78	106	166	0	.249	.388	.483
		4763	687	1279	280	20	153	638	575	925	65	.269	.347	.432

No wonder the A's were looking to sign Rafael Furcal to play short, as Bobby Crosby doesn't seem to fit into the Oakland style of hitting. Jason Giambi would be a huge upgrade over Daric Barton at 1B. The projected numbers for Matt Holliday's look good considering the were questions as to how he'd perform outside of Colorado.

Rangers

		AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
C	Teagarden	448	64	107	18	2	25	61	50	153	2	.239	.315	.455
1B	Davis	566	107	171	42	3	40	118	43	147	8	.302	.351	.599
2B	Kinsler	581	108	169	39	3	22	82	58	77	25	.291	.355	.482
3B	Blalock	529	77	149	33	2	22	83	50	95	3	.282	.344	.476
SS	Young	654	94	194	37	3	14	85	51	109	8	.297	.348	.427
LF	Murphy	527	73	146	38	4	15	78	47	84	9	.277	.336	.450
CF	Hamilton	619	103	192	36	4	36	126	68	116	9	.310	.378	.556
RF	Cruz	443	74	123	25	2	28	84	50	106	18	.278	.351	.533
DH	Catalanotto	338	45	94	25	2	6	38	30	40	2	.278	.337	.417
		4705	745	1345	293	25	208	755	447	927	84	.286	.348	.491

These guys can hit. Six of the starting nine are projected to hit at least 20 HR and drive in 80 runs, with Chris Davis looking to lead the team in home runs with 40 after hitting 17 in under 300 AB in 2008. I'm not too sure Catalanotto will be the starting DH, especially with so many better options out there. If the Rangers are able to upgrade the DH spot in the batting order, Texas' offense could be devastating. Good thing for Angels' fans the Rangers don't have any pitching.

Mariners

		AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
C	Clement	520	67	133	35	2	20	78	57	117	0	.256	.329	.446
1B	LaHair	156	18	39	10	0	4	20	15	42	0	.250	.316	.391
2B	Lopez	551	70	155	34	2	14	75	24	62	4	.281	.311	.426
3B	Beltre	605	82	165	36	2	27	92	47	104	8	.273	.325	.473
SS	Betancourt	576	70	162	36	4	8	59	19	47	6	.281	.304	.399
LF	Balentien	426	62	102	25	1	20	69	45	112	7	.239	.312	.444
CF	Gutierrez	369	60	100	26	1	10	42	29	79	10	.271	.324	.428
RF	Suzuki	679	103	217	22	5	8	54	48	71	34	.320	.365	.402
DH	Johjima	400	43	106	21	0	12	52	20	37	2	.265	.300	.408
		4282	575	1179	245	17	123	541	304	671	71	.275	.323	.427

The Mariners have a long way to go if they want to compete in the near future.

Comparison

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Angels	4611	684	1307	268	19	162	670	378	818	125	.283	.338	.455
A's	4763	687	1279	280	20	153	638	575	925	65	.269	.347	.432
Rangers	4705	745	1345	293	25	208	755	447	927	84	.286	.348	.491
Mariners	4282	575	1179	245	17	123	541	304	671	71	.275	.323	.427

Obviously, these projections only show part of the equation for each teams' success. I've been analyzing projections for a long time and I still don't trust pitcher's projections. In my opinion, pitcher's projected stats are unreliable due to the multiple factors that impact a pitcher's season.

Post-Teixeira Thoughts

2008-12-26T15:27:48Z

I wanted to take a couple extra days to allow the smoke to clear and to get my thoughts together before posting my comments on the Yankees signing Teixeira. I've gone back and forth on whether the Angels should go all-in on re-signing Teix, or if they should let him go. Now that he's signed with New York and the Angels have made it clear that they're not going after any other free agents other than possibly Brian Fuentes, I figured I may as well spout my opinion.

Torii Hunter was quoted in this LA Times article regarding Teixeira and the Angels' offer, "He said he really wanted to come back, but he needed the Angels to step up," Hunter said. "I didn't know what he meant, because I thought eight years and $160 million was a pretty impressive offer." He needed the Angels to "step up"? This is from a player who allowed his agent to let the Angels offer sit for almost two weeks without any response. If he truly wanted to return to Anaheim he should have stepped up and told the Angels what it would take for him to return. He could have said something like, "Look, I like the Angels and would be willing to return for a salary of $22M over 8 years. This is less than some other offers, but that's what it will take." I've read that Boras came back to the Angels and gave them one last chance (from this LA Times article)

"...another source said Tuesday that Boras had given the Angels one last chance to sign Teixeira on Monday, for eight years and about $176 million. The Angels declined, severing ties with the switch-hitter they acquired last July 29."

But then this nugget from the NY Daily News:

"It was then learned that Teixeira had favored the Yankees all along and according to sources he conveyed that to them this week."

We fans may never know what truly happened or the circumstances surrounding Teixeira negotiations and signing, but the feeling I get from all of this is, "Show me the money".

Some other post-Teixeira thoughts:

With the Yankees signing Teixeira, the Angels now have the 26th pick (plus another supplemental pick) in next year's draft. That pick was orignally going to the Brewers after the Yanks signed C.C. Sabathia, but Teixeira has a higher Elias ranking than Sabathia meaning the pick now goes to the Angels. The Angels now have the 25th pick (from NY Mets for K-Rod), the 26th pick, and the 33rd. Plus they'll receive supplemental picks between the first and second rounds for K-Rod, Teixeira and Garland signing elsewhere.
No Manny. Angels' GM Tony Reagins stated, "Manny will not be an Angel," Reagins said. "We're going to give our kids an opportunity to play. We signed [outfielder] Juan Rivera to a three-year deal, and we think, given at-bats, he can be a productive player. With Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews Jr. and Reggie Willits, our outfield is intact. It will not happen. We are not going to sign Manny Ramirez. End of story." I wish I had some inside information on this so I could find out if it's more of a financial decision or possibly the Angels are tired of dealing with Scott Boras (both Teixeira and Ramirez are Boras clients). Whichever the case, I'm a bit disappointed it's not going to be a "Manaheim" summer in SoCal. It would have been fun to watch.
No Adam Dunn. Within the same "No Manny" article, Reagins added the Angels were not pursuing free-agent outfielders such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell. I have a feeling this might change if the salary demands continue to drop. The Halo ownership is too smart to let a play like Dunn, who would fill the hole in their line-up for a power bat, to go to another team if the price were right. I've written before, and read the same opinion elsewhere, that if the Angels don't sign a free agent hitter this winter, there'll be plenty of high-impact talent available during the season. With the nations economic uncertainty and teams needing to trim payroll, the Angels should be able to swing a deal or two (Lance Berkman?).
A new closer? I've read the Angels are looking into signing Brian Fuentes. Fuentes originally was looking for a 3-year contract in excess of $30M-$33M, but like free agent outfielders, the market has slipped for closers. If the Angels can sign Fuentes to a deal in the range of $8M-$9M a year, about $1M a year less than what they paid Frankie Rodriguez last season, it would be a good move. This would allow Arredondo more time to prove he can handle MLB hitters.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas! I want to send a special thank you to my sister and brother-in-law for the great time we had at their home...they're awesome people and we always enjoy spending time with them.

No Teixeira? What Now?

2008-12-22T17:20:09Z

Okay, so the Angels aren't going to re-sign Mark Teixeira. Or are they? Last week, the Boston Red Sox claimed they were no longer going to "be a factor" in the saga that has become the Teixeira free agency. Red Sox owner John Henry sent out an email stating, "We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him," Henry told AP. "After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor." Apparently this was his way of calling Scott Boras' bluff because if you're still reading about what's going on, the Red Sox are still in the running to land Teix. Yesterday, according to team vice president of communications Tim Mead, the Angels dropped out of the pursuit for the free agent first baseman when they pulled their rumored 8-year offer off the table. I think there are two possible scenarios going on here:

This is the Angels' way of calling Boras' bluff. The Angels feel they've made a good offer to Teixeira and with the Red Sox claiming they're done dealing, this will put the pressure back on Teix to make up his mind. The only remaining offers out there are from the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles - two teams not likely to field winning teams for a few years. If the Angels had submitted the best offer, and Boston was no longer a factor, this would force Boras to come back to the Angels and look for them to reconsider if Teixeira truly wanted to play for a winner instead of just wanting to be on an east coast team. I don't think this is what's happening, but it's possible. But, here's what I think is going on...
The Angels are truly done dealing with Boras and are no longer trying to re-sign Teixeira. Arte Moreno is probably the best owner in baseball, and he has assembled an excellent front office staff headed by GM Tony Reagins. The team knows what they're doing and have a plan - or I should say "plans". If they can't re-sign Teix, they know what their next step is and they figure it's now time to move on. Boras counts on one team, or I should say team's owner to be stupid. Just like Rangers' owner Tom Hicks, who in 2000, signed Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year/$252M contract. Arte Moreno wasn't going to be that stupid owner who ends up bidding against himself, getting stuck with an over-priced player who would impact future financial dealings. Don't get me wrong, I think Teixeira was an important piece for next season's success, but it gets to a point where the financial terms get out of hand or time becomes a factor when moving on to other options. It became apparent to the Angels that Teixeira wasn't going to return to Anaheim and they didn't want to get shutout in possible other free agents or trades. This whole situation has been holding up free agent signings as teams and players wait to see where Teixeira lands and which teams/players will become plan B options. Arte Moreno and his team aren't going to be used by Boras to drive up the price for other teams, and figure, if you don't want to play for us, we don't want you.

So, what do the Angels do now?

Manny Ramirez. I don't think so, not after the Angels re-signed OF Juan Rivera to a 3-year/$12.75 million deal last week. Rivera obviously isn't the hitter Manny is, but he's costing the Angels about $20M less per year over the same years Ramirez was rumored to be asking for. Plus, Ramirez is another Scott Boras client. While I don't think the Angels are in the same situation the Atlanta Braves are with Rafael Furcal's agents and will not deal with Boras, it now looks like Boras is positioning the Ramirez negotiations to pit two teams against each other. I doubt the Angels will be one of those teams.
Adam Dunn. I've been hoping the Angels would sign Dunn ever since the Diamondbacks didn't offer him arbitration allowing whichever team he signs with to keep their first-round pick. Although Dunn is a below average defensive first baseman, his ability to play that position would fit the Angels' needs better than Manny. Dunn would join the OF/DH/1B rotation with Kendry Morales and Vladimir Guerrero. I've read that Dunn would prefer to play in Chicago for the Cubs, but I haven't heard if the feeling is mutual.
Brian Fuentes. The free agent closer has mentioned his preference is to play in Anaheim, but do the Angels need to spend approximately $10M/year on a closer? If the free agent prices continue to fall, Fuentes could become an option, but a $30M/3-year deal doesn't make sense. ESPN's Buster Olney thinks the price for Fuentes could drop to $15M - $18M over three years. If that happens, the Angels should be in play to sign him.
Bobby Abreu. I would have never guessed I write this, but Abreu might be a decent option. As contract prices fall, some players get more attractive and Abreu is one of those players. A $30M/2-year contract didn't make sense, but a deal at half the price could be a bargain.
Prince Fielder. Trading for Fielder might not be realistic as it's uncertain the Brewers are truly looking to deal the big first baseman. If they are, they'd require pitching in return.
Joey Votto. It's funny how internet trade rumors get started. I read this in Peter Gammons posting that there's a possible deal involving the Red-White Sox-Angels where the Angels would send Chone Figgins to Chicago, Cinncinatti would receive Jermaine Dye and send Votto to Anaheim. I don't know if Gammons has some information that this is a deal being discussed or if it's just something he came up with to fill column space, but it'd take more than just Figgiins to land Votto.
No one. This is always a teams' option in dealing with trades or free agents. If the Angels stand pat with the team they have they would still be the pre-season favorites to win the West. Once the season starts and players become available via trade, the Angels could then make a move to improve their roster once teams fall out of contention.

Whatever happens, I have faith in the Angels' ownership that they know what they're doing and they have a plan.

Tough Decisions

2008-12-17T14:58:15Z

Am I the only one who feels this way, or do others have a hard time drawing up sympathetic feelings for what Mark Teixeira is going through? Torii Hunter has stated that Teixeira is having a hard time sleeping at night, "Trust me, he's going through it right now,'' Hunter said of Teixeira. "He can't sleep at night. He's up at 5 in the morning. It's pretty rough for him right now.'' Don't get me wrong, I think Teixeira is a great ballplayer and deserves every cent he's going to receive in his next contract, but that doesn't mean I feel sorry for him. He's got some tough decisions to make. Such as which gated community should he buy his next multi-million dollar home? Should he buy a Mercedes, Bentley or Escalade? Will $20,000,000 be enough to make ends meet or will it take $23,000,000? Tough decisions.

I once worked for a small medical device company who was having problems with one of their products. I was given the task to find out what the problem was, what was causing the problem, and fixing the problem. After spending a few weeks looking into every aspect of the product, it was determined that the ultra-sonic welding process was putting too much stress on an injection molded part. This caused the part to breakdown in use making the product useless. We readjusted the process and the product worked as advertised. About a month later that product line was sold to a huge medical device company for a few million dollars and shortly after that, the owner of the company came into my office to chit-chat. It seemed he was having a hard time deciding on which school in Switzerland to send his kid and it was keeping him up at night. Should I have felt sympathy for my boss for his tough decision? Hardly. It was his company and he had worked hard to become successful, but just don't think I'm going to feel bad about your tough decisions when my own tough decisions are keeping me up at night. Decisions like; should I pay the electric bill or the gas bill? Can I take my kids to McDonald's or splurge and go to Denny's?

We all have tough decisions to make.

Daily Notes:

I've heard rumors that Boston has offered Teixeira 8 years/$200M. The rumor was started by Dan Patrick on ESPN radio when he was wondering if that would be what it'd take to sign him. Apparently there has been no $200M offer made, but is it out of the question Teixeira could garner that big of a contract? And should the Angels pay that much? I posted the following over at Halo's Heaven:

I agree, it'd be nice to have Teixeira back in Halo Red, but would spending $20M+ on one player be the best way to spend the dough? If Teix leaves, the Angels lose a player capable of hitting 30+ HR, driving in 100 runs and getting on base 40% of the time, but could that production be replaced in a more cost effective way? Yes.
1) Kendry Morales at 1B could be counted on for about 15 HR and 60 RBI, already on the payroll for $600K.
2) A player such as Dunn should be good for at least 35 HR, 90+RBI and the same 40% OBP, at a cost of approx. $13M.
3) A better #5 starter (such as Randy Johnson) for 12-14 wins...about 5-7 more wins than Moseley would get, for around $7M.

So for the same $20M the Angels are getting 50HR, 150 RBI and a slight drop in OBP, plus a few more wins from the #5 starter. Of course this doesn't take into account the LF who's batting order spot Dunn would take, but as of right now that spot is filled with Willits and then Matthews (when healthy). I don't think either of those players makes much of an impact.

I like Teixeira, but I think that money could be used more efficiently resulting in more wins. This Angels team is good, and with a few breaks going their way in 2008, would have been in the World Series. Something they can do in 2009 without Teixeira.

The comments were pretty much split down the middle as some agreed with my thoughts and others felt he was worth the cost. One mistake I made in my assumption was Willits being in LF, but if Teixeira is re-signed I think we'll probably see Morales in left which equals the output of Dunn/Morales. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I think Adam Dunn would be an adequate replacement for Teixeira and at almost half the salary. Salary which could be used to improve other areas of the club. I'm reminding myself of former Angels' Gm Buzzie Bavasi who said he could replace Nolan Ryan with two 8-7 pitchers. I'm not suggesting replacing Teixeira with two 15HR 75 RBI guys, but...okay, maybe I am.
In our roundtable question answering thing I did with Blogs By Fans, I forgot to mention where my questions came from. Mike from the Yankee blog "In Mo We Trust" sent the questions to me. I meant to include a link to his site, but forgot. And as links are the currency of bloggers, I feel I shorted him a bit. So here's the link: In Mo We Trust. Go take a look at his Yankee thoughts.

Blogs By Fans Roundtable - Part IV

2008-12-14T16:05:57Z

We, the baseball writer for the Blog By Fans are having a round-table discussion about the recently concluded Winter Meetings. It's now my turn to answer some questions regarding the Angels moves (or non-moves). Here are the Mets - Giants - and Yankee responses.

1. Do you think Jose Arredondo is ready to close now that Francisco Rodriguez has moved on to the Mets or will the Angels use a bullpen-by-committee until he proves he can handle the role?

Honestly? No, I don't think Arredondo is ready. Don't get me wrong, I think he has great stuff, but last season was his first year in the majors. While Frankie Rodriguez had a great first season, he was used as the 8th inning guy setting up Percival, Arredondo was used in less pressure situations last season as Scot Shields was the primary set-up man. I think if the Angels don't go out and get an experienced closer, such as Brian Fuentes, Shields will be used in the ninth inning...at least at the start of the season. If Shields falters, then Arredondo will be the first choice to step in, but waiting in the wings is Kelvim Escobar (after the All-Star break) and he's proven he can close.

2. Will the Angels re-sign Mark Teixeira? If not, who would you suggest they get to replace him?

No, I think he's going to sign with those bastards in Boston. The feeling I get is the Angels have given Teixeira their best offer and won't get into a bidding war once the price goes above what they want to sign him to. This means we'll be seeing Kendry Morales at first in 2009. He's unproven, but to expect 15 HR and a .270 average wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously Morales' production isn't going to replace Teixeira's, so I think the Halos will go out and get Adam Dunn who has just as much power as Teixeira, and can get on base at the same rate although he does strike out a lot. Dunn could be signed for about half the price of Teixeira, leaving some payroll room to do some other things, like signing Randy Johnson or Milton Bradley. And don't forget...Manny Ramirez is still out there!

3. The Angels are rumored to be interested in trading for Jake Peavy. Are the Halos set at starting pitching or would you be willing to part with players like Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart and Kevin Jepsen to land Peavy?

I like Jake Peavy, but I think he's an injury waiting to happen (he's already had elbow problems last season). I'd rather see the Angels sign a player like Randy Johnson for one year, giving Adenhart and Moseley another year to mature. If the Angels do trade for Peavy, I've heard Weaver or Saunders would most likely be involved in the deal and I'd hate to see either of them go, however if San Diego would go for the deal above the Halo rotation would be epic. Runs prevented is as good as runs scored. If the Angels get shutout in signing a slugger, this might be the way they go.

4. The AL West proved no match for the Angels last season. Do you expect the Halos to run away with the division next year or is there a team that could keep things interesting in 2009?

I'm afraid of Oakland. Billy Beane's never been afraid to shake things up. They've already gone out and traded for Matt Holliday and they're rumored to be the favorite to sign Rafael Furcal. I've also read they may be bringing Jason Giambi back, who I think would be a steal. If they sign those two and somehow get a couple starting pitchers, they're going to be tough.

Is Weaver The Next Jake Peavy?

2008-12-10T15:37:33Z

In a previous post, I commented that I thought Jered Weaver would be, in a couple years, comparable to Jake Peavy. I received one comment to the post which stated that I was wrong. David wrote that Weaver's fastball has no movement and hitters have adjusted to Weaver deceptive motion to the plate. I love it when people disagree with me because it gives me something to think about, and possibly something interesting to write about.

I admit, I don't know much about a pitcher's lateral and/or vertical movement on their fastballs. I watch almost every Angels' game and I can tell the difference between good players and average players, but my ability to "scout" players is lacking. I typically rely on stats and general observations to form my opinions. With pitchers I can judge their performances by pitch selection and location, but not by the finer details. So, going back to the question; Is Weaver is going to be just as good as Peavy in a couple seasons? Here's what I found...

Jake Peavy was selected in the 15th round of the 1999 amateur draft out of high school. After spending 4 seasons in the Padre farm system, Peavy made his MLB debut at the age of 21 after being called up from double-A. In his 4 minor league seasons, Peavy compiled a 2.59 ERA in 432 innings with 548 strike outs. Upon reaching the majors at the age of 21, Peavy has gone 86-62 with a career ERA of 3.25...as we all know, he's been a very good pitcher.

Jered Weaver was the Angels' first round pick in the 2004 amateur draft after spending 4 years at Long Beach State. Weaver spent 2 seasons in the minor leagues, throwing just 153 innings (he had 11 IP in 2007 as a rehab assignment). In those 153 innings, Weaver struck out 188 batters. Comparing Weaver and Peavy minor league SO%, Peavy did a little better with a 1.25 K/IP to Weaver's 1.22 although Peavy's numbers came in single and double-A, while Weaver split his time at all three levels. Probably one of the biggest factors when comparing the two pitchers was Peavy was much younger than Weaver during their minor league careers, by the time Weaver was getting his professional career started (age 22), Peavy was already in the major leagues. Here are their stats at age:

Age 23	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	11	2	123.0	94	35	33	105	2.56	1.033
Peavy	15	6	166.1	146	42	53	173	2.27	1.196

The numbers look pretty close. However, as David points out in his comment, this was Weaver's first time through the league while this Peavy's 5th professional season, and third in the majors.

Age 24	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	13	7	161.0	178	70	45	115	3.91	1.385
Peavy	13	7	203.0	162	65	50	216	2.88	1.044

Looks like the league kind of figured Weaver out his second season. Also looks like Peavy stepped it up a bit at age 24, as he posted some excellent numbers.

Age 25	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	11	10	176.2	173	85	54	152	4.33	1.285
Peavy	11	14	202.0	187	92	62	215	4.09	1.231

At age 25, both pitchers appear to have slipped a little. Weaver's ERA is a bit deceiving as his K rate improved, as did his WHIP. It looks like Weaver had one or two bad innings during a start that inflated his ERA, and if I remember right, that was the impression I had watching him pitch last season. He'd be cruising along and then suddenly he'd give up two or three runs. I don't know if he lose focus, lacks a good "out pitch", or possibly he has problems pitching out of the stretch.

Total	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	35	19	460.2	445	190	132	372	3.71	1.252
Peavy	39	27	571.1	495	199	165	604	3.13	1.155

Another way to look at this is by season.

Year 1	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	11	2	123.0	94	35	33	105	2.56	1.033
Peavy	6	7	97.2	106	49	33	90	4.52	1.423


Year 2	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	13	7	161.0	178	70	45	115	3.91	1.385
Peavy	12	11	194.2	173	89	82	156	4.11	1.310


Year 3	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	11	10	176.2	173	85	54	152	4.33	1.285
Peavy	15	6	166.1	146	42	53	173	2.27	1.196


Total	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Weaver	35	19	460.2	445	190	132	372	3.71	1.252
Peavy	33	24	458.2	425	180	168	419	3.53	1.293

That looks really close. The edge in strike outs goes to Peavy, while Weaver showed better control. Peavy had his "break out" year during his third season and has gone on to have four excellent years out of the last five. Could 2009 be Weaver's big year? I would like to think so, but he'll have to pitch better with guys on base. I have to agree with David's comment, unless Weaver is able to take his game to the next level and do better in pressure situations, he's not going to be as good as Peavy, but as of right now, I think it's a lot closer than David realizes.

Daily Notes:

If you haven't already heard (I'm sure you have), Francisco Rodriguez signed with the New York Mets. Reportedly K-Rod will get $37M over three years, slightly more than what the Angels had offered earlier this year. I can't say I'm disappointed in seeing him go. If you've been following my comments on Frankie over last season, you'd know I thought he was just an average closer who was in a unique situation as far as his number of opportunities resulting in his record-breaking save total. Who's going to close for the Halo's next season? I'm curious as to why the Angels haven't looked at Kerry Wood who is rumored to be close to signing with Cleveland. From everything I've read the last week or so, he's available at a decent salary and willing to sign for just 2 years. Yeah, he's been inury-prone his entire career, but last year was his first season he was used in relief and he did a good job closing out games for the Cubs. Another plus, the Angels wouldn't lose a draft pick by signing him as the Cubs didn't offer him arbitration. I heard a little talk regarding Brian Fuentes possibly coming to Anaheim, however, he'd cost the Angels just slightly less than what Rodriguez signed with the Mets.
I have read that Randy Johnson is a possible free agent signing. As I've written before, I think he'd be a great addition to the Halo rotation. Plus it'd be fun to see him get his 300th win as an Angel.
The longer it takes, the less I think Mark Teixeira is going to return to the Angels. I might just be impatient, but I'm starting to read more about him going to Boston. Add that to the rumor I read this morning that Sabathia has agreed to sign with the Yankees, means the Angels could be shutout of signing one of the two best free agents available. I don't think it's a big deal as there are other players out there (at less money) who could be very useful, but it could be a big blow to the casual Halo fans who want to see the high-dollar names.

Angels Could Deal From Depth At Short

2008-12-06T17:05:24Z

Over the last few days, I've been reading a lot about major league shortstops. There's been one trade, San Diego sent Khalil Greene to the Cardinals. One free agent signing, Edgar Renteria was signed by the Giants for $18.5M for two years. One deal-no deal where Jack Wilson was reportedly sent to Detroit, but then apparently not. And one rejected offer by Rafael Furcal, who told Oakland their 4 year offer wasn't good enough. The Angels have 3 shortstops who could start form many teams in Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis and Brandon Wood which puts them in a position to match up with teams in need at that position. I believe if the Angels make a deal at next week's GM meeting, it'll be one involving Erick Aybar. Below are each team's shortstop (according to ESPN's depth charts):

American League		National League
Bal	Brandon Fahey	Atl	Yunel Escobar
Bos	Jed Lowrie	Was	Cristian Guzman
NYY	Derek Jeter	NYM	Jose Reyes
TB	Jason Bartlett	Phi	Jimmy Rollins
Tor	John McDonald	Fla	Hanley Ramirez

Chi	Alexei Ramirez	Mil	J.J. Hardy
Cle	Jhonny Peralta	Chi	Ryan Theriot
Det	Ramon Santiago	Cin	Alex Gonzalez
KC	Mike Aviles	Hou	Miguel Tejada
Min	Brendon Harris	Pit	Jack Wilson
		Stl	Khalil Greene
LAA	Erick Aybar
Oak	Bobby Crosby	LAD	Angel Berroa
Sea	Yuniesky Betancourt	SD	Luis Rodriguez
Tex	Michael Young	SF	Edgar Renteria
		Col	Troy Tulowitzki
		Ari	Stephen Drew

Detroit and the Dodgers are two teams most recently looking to trade to fill their hole at short. Both teams were rumored to have acquired Jack Wilson from Pittsburgh, but those rumors were premature as Wilson is still with the Pirates. Other teams possibly in the market to upgrade their infield are San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh (if they trade Wilson). I've also read Houston would like to dump Miguel Tejada, but they'd be hard pressed finding another team willing to take him off of their hands.

The Angels' needs are pretty simple. If they don't sign one of the big dollar free agents; Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez, they're going to need a leftfielder to replace Garret Anderson if they don't plan on moving Chone Figgins to that position, and the Halos could use some help in the bullpen. How do the Angels match up with the teams looking for a shortstop? Let's take a look:

Detroit: There were rumors earlier this off season where the Tigers were considering sending Magglio Ordonez to Anaheim for a catcher, shortstop and a pitcher. I thought this was a good fit for both teams if the Tigers would have agreed to acquire Jeff Mathis, Erick Aybar and a pitcher such as Moseley. Ordonez is getting older, but still has the ability to get on base and drive in runs. The slow-footed right fielder was a below average defender, but would benefit with a move to the other side of the outfield. The Tigers are reportedly in discussions with Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson.

Los Angeles: The Dodgers have also been rumored to be in the mix to acquire Wilson, but their desire to not take on any of his salary is causing the talks to move slowly. In this L.A. Times article, the Dodgers look to acquire a shortstop via trade, but the article doesn't name any players they're looking at. I don't see a good match up between the two L.A. teams unless the Dodgers are willing to deal Matt Kemp. Latest rumor has Kemp going to the Yankees in a Robinson Cano deal, but if he is truly available, the Angels should be all over him.

San Diego: With their trade last week with the Cardinals, the Padres need to find a replacement for Khalil Greene a short unless they want to go with Luis Rodriguez. Before last season, the 28 year-old Rodriguez had not acquired more than 200 at bats in the majors (he had 202 AB lat year) and was primarily used at 2B and 3B. Jake Peavy is still a Padre, but San Diego has stated that dealing Peavy is no longer a top priority for them. Erick Aybar could be part of a deal that would send Peavy to the Angels, but there other players the Halos would have to include...such as Jered Weaver or Howie Kendrick. I'm not a big fan of a deal that includes Weaver as I feel in a couple years he may be close to the same performance level as Peavy at a more reasonable cost.

Oakland: The A's made a play for Rafael Furcal, offering him a 4 year deal (I haven't heard for how much), but Furcal declined the offer. This deal is probably not dead, as Oakland wants an upgrade over Bobby Crosby and there aren't that many clubs looking to sign a free agent shortstop. I don't see the inter-division rivals making any deals with each other.

Baltimore: Who knows what they're doing in Baltimore. They have light-hitting Brandon Fahey penciled in as their shortstop. The 27 year-old hasn't shown much with the bat and looks to be an average defender. The Orioles have left handed Luke Scott in left. Scott is coming off his first year playing full time, where he hit 23 home runs, but got on base at just a .366 rate. Melvin Mora may be easier to obtain mainly because of his age. The 36 year-old's primary position has been 3B, where he plays average defense, but with his age creeping up on him he should see his range start to decline, if it hasn't already. One positive with Mora is he's signed for just one more year (with a club option for 2010) and at a reasonable salary of $9M. Another possible Oriole to be available is Aubrey Huff who is coming off a excellent year in which he clubbed 32 home runs and batted .304. Mostly playing DH, Huff can fill the 3B position, but is just an average (at best) defender. He too is signed through next year and at a salary of $8M. With the addition of Mora or Huff, the Angels would most likely put Figgins in left. If the Angels do talk to Baltimore about any deals, they should also include relief pitcher George Sherrill. The lefty closer, obtained prior to last season from Seattle, has been rumored to be available and could add depth to the Angels bullpen.