The Road After Teixeira

The next few weeks should be pretty interesting as far as player movement goes, and the Angels should be right in the middle of any trade talks or free agent signings.  Obviously, the Angels #1 priority is dealing with player agent Scott Boras and signing his client Mark Teixeira.  Almost any move the Angels make will be dependant on their ability to re-sign Teix, as he's the first domino in the line of potential transactions.  There are a few moves I see the Angels making that aren't dependant on Teixeira; Garret Anderson returns at a reduce salary and limited role, and Darren Oliver returning to the bullpen.  Unless Anderson gets an offer from another team (Tampa Bay?) to play full-time, I think he'll be the Angels part-time DH/LF.  Oliver had the misfortune of being classified as a Type A free agent meaning any team who signs him would have to give up their first round draft pick.  I doubt any team is willing to give up the pick to sign a 38 year-old set-up guy.  Below are my predictions and thoughts as to which moves the Halos should make dependant on what happens with Teixeira.

Angels Re-Sign Teixeira
I've read in a couple different web postings that Teixeira has already picked out a house in SoCal which would indicate his desire to stay in Angel Red for the long term.  If this is the case, the Angels will sign the free agent first baseman to a contract of 6 to 7 years at approximately $20M/year.  With Teixeira signed, the Angles will look for a replacement in their rotation for the departing Jon Garland.  They have internal options in Nick Adenhart and Dustin Mosely as the two likely candidates, but I'm not sold on either of them.  The Angels have the luxury of having 4 good/great starting pitchers already set for their rotation, so they can slot in one of those two and not worry too much about it affecting their season and chances of returning to the post season.  However, if one of those four get hurt or fail to repeat their 2008 seasons, the Angels shallow starting pitching depth could become a concern.  It's possible that the Angels sign both Teixeira and stud pitcher C.C. Sabathia, but that would drastically limit any payroll flexibilty they have to address a couple other roster needs.  If the Angels sign Sabathia, Jered Weaver would become, in my opinion, the best #5 starter in the majors and the Angels would easily have the best rotation in baseball.  Signing Sabathia would probably be overkill in addressing the need for one more starter, but it would allow the Angels the opportunity to trade either Saunders or Santana for some offensive help, most notably in left field if they decide to deal Figgins.  I don't see Sabathia playing in Anaheim next season except when the Yankees come to town, as the Yankees most assuredly will break the bank to sign the lefty.  Here's what I think will happen, or what I'd like to see happen if Teixeira returns to the Halo line-up:

1. Angels trade Erick Aybar for relief pitching.  Somewhere like the White Sox for Matt Thornton would be nice.  I'm not sure about Thornton's availability, but the Sox could use a shortstop to replace Orlando Cabrera.
2. Colorado trades Garret Atkins to the Angels.  I'm not saying I'd like that to happen, but it seems the Angels are intent on getting one of the Rockies hitters and I'd rather have him than Matt Holliday since he'd cost less to acquire.  Would the Angels send Kendry Morales to the Rockies?  He'd be expendable with Teix manning first, plus Colorado's first baseman is Todd Helton and there's a question of if he's healthy enough to play everyday after having back surgery.  An Atkins / Morales deal would probably have to be expanded to include other players, hopefully one of the other guys coming over would be Taylor Buchholz.
3. Angels sign one of Randy Johnson, Braden Looper, or Freddy Garcia if they are sign-able at the right price.  If not, Mosely will start the season as the Angels #5 starter.  One possibility I'd like to see happen but won't, is for the Angels to take a chance on a "project" starter.  What I mean is, one of the starters coming off an injury year or a season that totally tanked.  They could sign a player like Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, Mark Prior, or Brad Penny to an incentive-based contract with an extremely low base salary (as San Diego did with Prior last year) and hope they return to their previous or projected levels.

Line-up:
C - Napoli
1B - Teixeira
2B - Kendrick
3B - Atkins
SS - Wood / Izturis
LF - Figgins
CF - Hunter
RF - Guerrero
DH - Matthews / Izturis

SP - Lackey
SP - Santana
SP - Saunders
SP - Weaver
SP - Johnson
CL - Arredondo
 

Angels Don't Re-sign Teixeira
I've recently been reading the Boston red Sox might be interested in signing Teixeira.  I'm not sure if that's just posturing to drive up the price on the Yankees/Angels or if they truly are interested in Teix.  They have the means to sign him and they could use him at first while moving Youkilis to thirdbase replacing Lowell and his surgically repaired hip.  The Yankees seem more interested in Sabathia and another frontline starter as their number one priority.  Even if they do sign two big-salary pitchers, they'd still have the cash to chase Teixeira.  The Angels have two roads to follow if they lose out on Teixeira, either spend that money on another top free agent or make a couple smaller moves and retool for the future with the draft picks they'll receive from their free agents signing with other teams.  The other big hitter available is Manny Ramirez, but I don't see that happening although he'd be a good fit in the Angels batting order.  Here's what I would like to see happen if Teixeira signs elsewhere:

1. Angels sign Adam Dunn to split time with Vlad Guerrero in RF and DH.  Regardless of how much Dunn strikes out, he still gets on base 40% of the time and hits 40+ home runs and would be a good addition to the team. 
2. Rocco Baldelli is signed to split time with Garret Anderson in left field.  Baldelli's not an everyday player, and neither is Anderson, but together they'd make a pretty productive left fielder hitting .280 - .290 with 30+ home runs.
3. Garrett Adkins still gets traded to the Angels, but in a deal involving Chone Figgins as Kendry Morales is the everyday first baseman.  Signing Rafael Furcal is unlikely to happen, but could make sense if Figgins is dealt for Matt Holliday instead of Atkins.  Furcal would be the ideal lead-off hitter the Angels could use, plus it'd allow Brandon Wood to start at third and become two deep in the middle infield.
4. Erick Aybar, Reggie Willits and Nick Adenhart get traded either individually or combined in some form for pitching.  Huston Street is reportedly available.  So is Javier Vazquez and Edwin Jackson.  Matt Cain might be.  As well as J.J. Putz.  It might be tough trading for Street or Putz since they play for division rivals, but I don't know why that'd hold up a deal.  Actually trading with Tampa for Jackson might be a good fit.  Tampa is looking for an outfielder/DH type and Willits is cheap.  The Angels would probably have to add more to the deal to get the Rays to bite, but Jackson would be a good and relatively cheap #5 starter.
5. If the Angels don't make a trade for a starting pitcher, then the same scenario as #3 if they sign Teix, except the Angels have a little more to spend on another starter.  I still think Randy Johnson would make sense, if the price isn't too much.  Plus, it'd be fun to see Johnson win his 300th game as an Angel.

C - Napoli
1B - Morales / Atkins
2B - Kendrick
3B - Atkins / Wood
SS - Wood / Isturis
LF - Baldelli / Anderson
CF - Hunter
RF - Dunn / Guerrero
DH - Guerrero / Dunn / Wood

SP - Lackey
SP - Santana
SP - Saunders
SP - Weaver
SP - Johnson or Jackson
CL - Street

Predictions (please let me know what you think and/or how full of crap my predictions are.  I'm interested in what everyone thinks will happen):

1. Teixeira stays.  The Angels will make a good offer and he'll decide to stay in Anaheim. 
2. Sabathia doesn't sign with the Angels (he signs with the Yankees)
3. Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales get traded.
4. Angels sign Randy Johnson.
5. Garret Anderson stays in Anaheim at a reduced salary and retires as an Angel.
6. Angels get Garrett Atkins from Colorado.

Daily Notes:

• It looks like Jake Peavy playing for the Angels isn't going to happen.  Apparently he'd only approve a trade to 3 NL teams (Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers) and the rumors he would be willing to go to New York or Anaheim were not true.
• According to Larry LaRue via MLBtradrumors.com, the Braves are interested in trading Jeff Francoeur.  I wonder why Atlanta is willing to give up on him after just one bad season.  I also wonder if he'd be a good fit for the Angels is Anderson doesn't return.  Is it just me, or is anyone else concerned about the Angels' outfield next season?  As I wrote above, I think the Angels should take a long look at a Rocco Baldelli/Garret Anderson platoon in left.  Maybe see what Bobby Abreu would want to come to Anaheim.  Or what the White Sox would want for Nick Swisher (although many people at Halo's Heaven think that's a bad idea), but ESPN's Rob Neyer writes (subscription required) and I agree with:

"Yesterday I wrote a bit about Javier Vazquez, whom the White Sox reportedly would love to trade. Well, he's not the only one, as apparently Nick Swisher is available, too. Well, I said teams would be lining up around the block for a shot at Vazquez, and I suspect the same might be true with Swisher. If you look at Swisher's .219 batting average this year, you'd think he had a lousy season. You'd be right. But even more, it was an unlucky season. Swisher's walk percentage, his strikeout percentage, his line-drive percentage … they were all right in line with his career norms. So what happened? He just hit too many atom (as in, "at 'em") balls. Sometimes this happens, though usually not to Swisher's extreme degree. Just watch. Next year, if he's healthy, he'll hit .250 and score 100 runs."

• A couple articles stating C.C. Sabathia may not be worth the money he'll receive as a free agent are at Sports Illustrated and O.C. Register.  Both articles have the same headline..."Buyer Beware".  It is true, pitchers are more fragile than position players and their performance isn't as consistent, but Sabathia showed me a lot last season with the Brewers.  He knew his free agency was looming and there was a risk for him pitching so many times on 3 and 4 days rest, but he was all for doing whatever he could do to get the Brewers into the playoffs.  I admire him for putting his team before himself, as it says a lot about the kind of person he is and the type of team mate he'd be.  I don't think he's another Bartolo Colon.