I've been looking into player projections a bit more recently, and I was wondering what each team within the West Division looked like as of this moment, with free agent signings and trades as of today (12-30-08). The projections are from the excellent website fangraphs.com, and were calculated using Bill James' formula.
Angels
|
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
C | Napoli | 449 | 82 | 113 | 22 | 1 | 31 | 85 | 73 | 129 | 11 | .252 | .356 | .512 |
1B | Morales | 537 | 67 | 156 | 30 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 28 | 72 | 1 | .291 | .326 | .456 |
2B | Kendrick | 612 | 87 | 194 | 49 | 4 | 11 | 82 | 20 | 96 | 18 | .317 | .339 | .464 |
3B | Wood | 447 | 63 | 113 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 67 | 34 | 123 | 10 | .253 | .306 | .470 |
SS | Aybar | 436 | 63 | 117 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 19 | 53 | 17 | .268 | .299 | .362 |
LF | Figgins | 627 | 101 | 180 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 71 | 110 | 43 | .287 | .360 | .372 |
CF | Hunter | 593 | 87 | 159 | 37 | 1 | 25 | 93 | 48 | 117 | 16 | .268 | .323 | .460 |
RF | Guerrero | 593 | 94 | 186 | 37 | 1 | 31 | 111 | 64 | 77 | 8 | .314 | .381 | .536 |
DH | Rivera | 317 | 40 | 89 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 21 | 41 | 1 | .281 | .325 | .467 |
4611 | 684 | 1307 | 268 | 19 | 162 | 670 | 378 | 818 | 125 | .283 | .338 | .455 |
Bill James really likes Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood. If those three players are able to put up these numbers next season, in addition to the projected rebound of Vladimir Guerrero and a healthy season from Howie Kendrick (612 AB!), the Angels offense should be just fine without adding any free agents. In fact, the 162 home runs being projected by the starting nine are 3 more than the entire team hit last season.
A's
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
C | Suzuki | 539 | 66 | 148 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 60 | 53 | 71 | 2 | .275 | .340 | .384 |
1B | Barton | 475 | 69 | 120 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 56 | 69 | 80 | 2 | .253 | .347 | .389 |
2B | Ellis | 506 | 72 | 131 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 56 | 52 | 79 | 10 | .259 | .328 | .401 |
3B | Chavez | 555 | 80 | 143 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 67 | 117 | 4 | .258 | .338 | .458 |
SS | Crosby | 567 | 72 | 138 | 35 | 1 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 106 | 8 | .243 | .308 | .372 |
LF | Holliday | 605 | 111 | 192 | 43 | 4 | 29 | 108 | 66 | 116 | 19 | .317 | .385 | .545 |
CF | Sweeney | 538 | 71 | 151 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 66 | 51 | 84 | 11 | .281 | .343 | .400 |
RF | Buck | 512 | 69 | 140 | 36 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 58 | 106 | 9 | .273 | .347 | .445 |
DH | Cust | 466 | 77 | 116 | 22 | 0 | 29 | 78 | 106 | 166 | 0 | .249 | .388 | .483 |
4763 | 687 | 1279 | 280 | 20 | 153 | 638 | 575 | 925 | 65 | .269 | .347 | .432 |
No wonder the A's were looking to sign Rafael Furcal to play short, as Bobby Crosby doesn't seem to fit into the Oakland style of hitting. Jason Giambi would be a huge upgrade over Daric Barton at 1B. The projected numbers for Matt Holliday's look good considering the were questions as to how he'd perform outside of Colorado.
Rangers
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
C | Teagarden | 448 | 64 | 107 | 18 | 2 | 25 | 61 | 50 | 153 | 2 | .239 | .315 | .455 |
1B | Davis | 566 | 107 | 171 | 42 | 3 | 40 | 118 | 43 | 147 | 8 | .302 | .351 | .599 |
2B | Kinsler | 581 | 108 | 169 | 39 | 3 | 22 | 82 | 58 | 77 | 25 | .291 | .355 | .482 |
3B | Blalock | 529 | 77 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 22 | 83 | 50 | 95 | 3 | .282 | .344 | .476 |
SS | Young | 654 | 94 | 194 | 37 | 3 | 14 | 85 | 51 | 109 | 8 | .297 | .348 | .427 |
LF | Murphy | 527 | 73 | 146 | 38 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 47 | 84 | 9 | .277 | .336 | .450 |
CF | Hamilton | 619 | 103 | 192 | 36 | 4 | 36 | 126 | 68 | 116 | 9 | .310 | .378 | .556 |
RF | Cruz | 443 | 74 | 123 | 25 | 2 | 28 | 84 | 50 | 106 | 18 | .278 | .351 | .533 |
DH | Catalanotto | 338 | 45 | 94 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 40 | 2 | .278 | .337 | .417 |
4705 | 745 | 1345 | 293 | 25 | 208 | 755 | 447 | 927 | 84 | .286 | .348 | .491 |
These guys can hit. Six of the starting nine are projected to hit at least 20 HR and drive in 80 runs, with Chris Davis looking to lead the team in home runs with 40 after hitting 17 in under 300 AB in 2008. I'm not too sure Catalanotto will be the starting DH, especially with so many better options out there. If the Rangers are able to upgrade the DH spot in the batting order, Texas' offense could be devastating. Good thing for Angels' fans the Rangers don't have any pitching.
Mariners
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
C | Clement | 520 | 67 | 133 | 35 | 2 | 20 | 78 | 57 | 117 | 0 | .256 | .329 | .446 |
1B | LaHair | 156 | 18 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 42 | 0 | .250 | .316 | .391 |
2B | Lopez | 551 | 70 | 155 | 34 | 2 | 14 | 75 | 24 | 62 | 4 | .281 | .311 | .426 |
3B | Beltre | 605 | 82 | 165 | 36 | 2 | 27 | 92 | 47 | 104 | 8 | .273 | .325 | .473 |
SS | Betancourt | 576 | 70 | 162 | 36 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 19 | 47 | 6 | .281 | .304 | .399 |
LF | Balentien | 426 | 62 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 20 | 69 | 45 | 112 | 7 | .239 | .312 | .444 |
CF | Gutierrez | 369 | 60 | 100 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 29 | 79 | 10 | .271 | .324 | .428 |
RF | Suzuki | 679 | 103 | 217 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 54 | 48 | 71 | 34 | .320 | .365 | .402 |
DH | Johjima | 400 | 43 | 106 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 20 | 37 | 2 | .265 | .300 | .408 |
4282 | 575 | 1179 | 245 | 17 | 123 | 541 | 304 | 671 | 71 | .275 | .323 | .427 |
The Mariners have a long way to go if they want to compete in the near future.
Comparison
AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
Angels | 4611 | 684 | 1307 | 268 | 19 | 162 | 670 | 378 | 818 | 125 | .283 | .338 | .455 |
A's | 4763 | 687 | 1279 | 280 | 20 | 153 | 638 | 575 | 925 | 65 | .269 | .347 | .432 |
Rangers | 4705 | 745 | 1345 | 293 | 25 | 208 | 755 | 447 | 927 | 84 | .286 | .348 | .491 |
Mariners | 4282 | 575 | 1179 | 245 | 17 | 123 | 541 | 304 | 671 | 71 | .275 | .323 | .427 |
Obviously, these projections only show part of the equation for each teams' success. I've been analyzing projections for a long time and I still don't trust pitcher's projections. In my opinion, pitcher's projected stats are unreliable due to the multiple factors that impact a pitcher's season.