Jim: March 2009 Archives

As Brandon Wood continues to tear up Arizona, the Angels are going to have to make a couple decisions; 1)  Where will Wood play?  Third base with the major league club?  Shortstop down in triple-A?  2)  If Wood makes the major league roster, who doesn't?

After 18 games this spring, Wood has a team leading .730 slugging percentage (8 extra base hits) in 37 at-bats, while cutting down on his strikeouts.  So far this Cactus league season, Wood has struck out just 3 times which is a vast improvement from last spring when he struck out 22 times in 55 at-bats.  Having too much depth is a good problem to have if you're the Angels, but someone's not going to make the team.  As of today, the active roster looks like this:

1)  John Lackey
2)  Joe Saunders
3)  Jered Weaver
4)  Dustin Moseley
5)  Shane Loux
6)  Brian Fuentes
7)  Scot Shields
8)  Jose Arredondo
9)  Darren Oliver
10)  Justin Speier
11)  Jason Bulger
12)  Kevin Jepsen
13)  Mike Napoli
14)  Jeff Mathis
15)  Kendry Morales
16)  Howie Kendrick
17)  Erick Aybar
18)  Chone Figgins
19)  Juan Rivera
20)  Torii Hunter
21)  Vladimir Guerrero
22)  Bobby Abreu
23)  Gary Mathews Jr.
24)  Maicer Izturis
25)  ???

Who will fill the 25th roster spot?  Rob Quinlan, Reggie Willits, or Brandon Wood?  Each player has their strengths; Quinlan can play first and third base, Willits is a switch-hitting outfielder and Wood can play both positions on the left side of the infield.  Barring a late-spring injury or trade, two of these players won't be on the active roster come opening day.  The most likely scenario would be the club carries 11 pitchers which provides depth on their bench.  If this happens, Quinlan will surely make the team and Willits would probably take the final roster spot sending Wood to Salt Lake to get consistent at-bats.  However, the thinking is starters don't tend to pitch as deep into games early in the season as they will do later, causing a need for added pitching depth.  If the Angels go with 12 pitchers, Willits probably doesn't make the team.

To make the decision even harder, all three players are having a good spring with the bat.  As stated above, Wood is hitting the ball hard and often, while Willits has taken the Angels new hitting approach to heart by working deep pitch counts in his at-bats.  Willits is hitting .318, but has 6 walks to boost his OBP to .464.  Add in his 3 stolen bases, and Willits is making a claim as a useful bench player.

Daily Notes:

• Outfielder Chris Pettit is having a fantastic spring.  Pettit has played in all 18 of the Angels Cactus league games, hitting .342 with a couple of stolen bases.  He's also shown his ability to get on base by drawing 5 walks (with just 2 strike outs) in 38 at-bats.  The 24 year-old has hit a combined .309 in his three minor league seasons, but last season at double-A Arkansas, Pettit hit just .248.  A return to Arkansas is likely in 2009, but he should expect a promotion to Salt Lake City early into the season if he continues to hit as he's has this spring.
   
• Gary Mathews Jr. wants a full-time job.  In a LA Times article by Bill Shaikin, Mathews states, "My goal is to play every day."  He then added, "I hope that's here."  What does that mean?  If he's not playing every day for the Angels, would he waive his no-trade clause so he can play for another team?  For one reason or another, many Angels' fans don't like Mathews.  But the problem isn't with Mathews, it's with his contract, especially after this season's falling free agent prices.  Ten million dollars a year is too much for a part-time player.  Actually, it's too much for a full-time player with Mathews skill set and career numbers, but it's not his fault the Angels were willing to pay him so much.  I think most fans would be very happy to have him on the team if he were being paid the same amount as Rob Quinlan ($1.1M) instead of twice as much as Bobby Abreu.
   

In a quote within Bill Shalkin's article in the LA Times, Angels medical director Lewis Yocum stated that although Ervin Santana has a partially torn ligament in his right elbow, he can pitch this season without reconstructive (Tommy John) surgery.  Dr. Yocum feels Santana may be able to pitch effectively after rehabilitation and rest.  Are you thinking, "Finally, some good news on the health of Angels' pitchers"?  Well, Suzy Sunshine, I'm here to pee in your corn flakes.

Although he may be able to pitch this season, how effective will he be?  Within a posting I wrote back in February (LINK) about pitcher projections, I linked to a Razzball study of theirs which ranked the 20 injury risk pitchers for 2009.  In their study, Santana was listed 12th because of the number of sliders he threw in 2008.  I've read a few articles about which pitchers are more likely to get hurt this season, but those were based on the number of innings pitched or the actual number of pitches thrown, not the types of pitches a player threw.  Most articles pointed to C.C. Sabathia as a likely injury risk because of the abuse people thought the Brewers subjected him too in the time he was in Milwaukee.  Razzball picked Santana 20th because of his over reliance on his slider.  One of the criteria for compiling the list was the percentage of curves or sliders a pitcher threw; above 27% was bad, above 30% was worse, etc.  Last season, Santana threw his slider 35% of the time, "He's maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in '06 to 33% in '08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009."  If the growing reliance on his slider is the main reason for his success, and throwing the slider is what caused the injury, how willing is Santana going to be to throw his most effective pitch?  And if he's not willing to throw his best pitch, what kind of season will he have relying on his other pitches?  I'm not saying his other pitches are garbage, but the Angels can't afford to send the 2007 version of Santana out to the mound every 5th day.

Although it's good news Santana won't require surgery...yet, it still doesn't negate the fact that he is injured and will probably throw like an injured pitcher.

Daily Notes:

• Through 30 at-bats, Brandon Wood his hitting .438, but the most telling statistic is his strikeouts...two.  That's right, he has the same number of strikeout as he does home runs.  How fantastic would it be for Wood to carry-over his late season success from last year and put together an "Evan Longoria-like" season?  As much as I root for Wood's success, I have to point out two things; 1) Small sample size.  There have been many, and when I say many I mean thousands of players who have had fantastic spring trainings only to have it not translate into regular season success.  2) He's basically being successful against the same pitching he torn apart the last two years in the minor leagues.  We should wait until later this month to see if Wood can have the same success against the pitchers he'll face during the regular season.  I don't mean to be a downer regarding Wood, in fact his strikeout total thus far this spring is a very good sign.  Last season at 3A Salt Lake, Wood struck out 104 times in just under 400 at-bats.  It does look like Wood has "figured something out" in regards to making more consistent contact.
   
• It looks like Joe Saunders' shoulder problems were just early spring tightness.  Saunders went 4 innings Saturday without allowing a run while giving up just 3 hits, while also providing an RBI single in the second inning.  I would think if there was anything truly wrong with Saunders, Mike Scioscia wouldn't have allowed him to swing the bat.  New Angels' closer Brian Fuentes also threw a scoreless inning during the same game.  There had been word Fuentes was suffering from an achy back, but that also seems to have been just early pre-season stiffness.
   
• The Angels lead the major leagues with 12 wins so far this spring.  Last season the Angels had the second best winning percentage during spring and they went out and had the most wins in franchise history.

Kind of a rocky outing for a couple Halo pitchers yesterday (pun intended) against Colorado.  John Lackey gave up 3 runs in the first on a home run by Ian Stewart.  Lackey gave up 4 hits and walked a couple batters while striking out just one.  In three games (9 innings), Lackey's allowed 5 runs on 8 hits.  The two walks yesterday were his first of this spring, so maybe the outing can be attributed to a "dead-arm" period most pitchers go through early in spring training as he seemed to settle down during the final 3 innings in yesterday's start.  Jordan Walden gave up his first two runs of the spring yesterday, but he's still done an okay job so far in his 6 innings of work.  Walden's probably slated to start the season at 2-A, but I think he has an outside shot of making the major league club if another starter goes down with an injury.  Last season at single-A Cedar Rapids he was outstanding, allowing just 80 hits in 107.1 innings, striking out 91 and showing good control.  Moving to Rancho Cucamonga later in the season, he gave up a few more walks, but overall did well.

Daily Notes:

• Howie Kendrick is kicking some ass.  And it's good to see.  I don't think there's been any doubt in his hitting abilities, it's just been a matter of him staying healthy to keep his bat in the line-up.  So far this spring Kendrick is hitting an even .500 (7 for 14) with a couple steals.  The steals are the nicest thing to see, showing he's not having any troubles with his fragile hamstrings.  If Kendrick can play at least 140 games this season, and continue hitting as he has in his brief major league career, it'd take much of the pressure off of some of the other young hitters (I'm looking at you Kendry Morales and Brandon Wood) to produce in the Angels' offense, especially if he's able to build on his doubles rate (38 / 500 AB).  An interesting observation I read somewhere was if Morales tanks at first base, Kendrick has played that position before.  In 2006, Kendrick started 42 games at first base, showing a RF of 9.20.  Although he doesn't have the typical power numbers you'd want to see from one of your corner infielders, briefly moving him over would allow the Angels to get Maicer Izturis or Sean Rodriquez into the line-up more frequently.  A healthy, hitting Howie would give the Angels some valuable options.
   
• We did an online chat with Orange County Register's columnist Sam Miller over at Halo's Heaven.  Sam's a good guy and knowledgeable Angels fan.  He's apparently not convinced as to Kendry Morales' ability to adequately man first base this season, as he suggested the Angels acquire Nick Swisher as a fallback option at first.  I like Swisher too, I don't think last season when he hit .219 with the White Sox is a typical season for him.  He'll never hit for a high average, but does have the ability to get on base while hitting a decent amount of home runs.  Kind of an "Adam Dunn-lite", but with better defense.  Also, in his column from yesterday, he points out a couple intriguing trade targets.  The most compelling is Jeff Neimann of the Rays.  He points out Neimann is out of options and really doesn't have a spot in the Tampa rotation.  When asked what it'd possible take to get him, Miller suggested a player such as Mark Trumbo.
   
• During the chat we were able to run a couple polls.  The first asked, "Should the Angels sign Pedro Martinez?"  Yes - 37%.  No - 63%.  Thought this was interesting as I'm of the opinion he wouldn't be a bad acquisition at the right price.  Another was, "Chone Figgins..."  Trade him for pitching - 56%.  Trade him for anything - 24%,  Keep him - 20%.  Eighty percent of the responses want to get rid of Figgins.  Many of the reasons were people feel he's blocking Brandon Wood and they feel Wood needs to play.  Finally, the last poll asked, "How many starts does Ervin Santana make in 2009?"  Zero - 0%.  Less than 10 - 7%.  Less than 20 - 40%.  More than 20 - 53%.  I'm hoping for #4 (more than 20 starts), but I think the Angels should be ready for #3 (less than 20 starts).
   
• Another Angels' starter is complaining of soreness.  Joe Saunders has a sore shoulder, but he states, "...it's just a little tightness. It's a matter of getting treatment and pitching through it. The more I throw, I'll work out the kinks." (LA Times).  If Saunders' soreness doesn't improve the Angels starting pitching depth will be severely depleted, as the only two starters remaining from last season's standout staff would be Lackey and Weaver with Dustin Moseley and Shane Loux filling out the backend of the rotation.

I'm involved in a live online chat at Beyond The Boxscore today (March 13th) at noon pacific time.  The chat is covering the AL West division and I'm supposedly the Angels "expert".  yeah, we'll see.  Check it out if you're around the internet during lunch time.

I'm back.

Actually, I never really went anywhere, I've been here all along.  Without going into too much of the boring details it's not being able to do what I want to do where I want to do it.  This blog is very important to me as I've enjoyed posting my thoughts about my favorite team, but sometimes life just gets in the way.  I didn't start this blog because I thought there was a hole to fill regarding Angels' information and coverage.  There are quite a few great Angels blogs where the writing is better, the amount of coverage is greater, and content is more timely.  I didn't want to fill this site with rehashed information from ESPN, MLB.com, or any of the other site that most people already read.  Most of all I didn't want this site to become a self indulgent outlet for my views on baseball in general, the Angels in specific (I'm not that smart or insightful).  Mainly, I started it as a form a therapy to help me get away from...well, life.

Hopefully the 3 or 4 regular readers of this site are still out there.  So, to get back on track, I'll start slowly with:

Daily Updates:

• As you've probably already heard, Ervin Santana has a sore elbow.  It's the same elbow ligament that is replaced when a play has "Tommy John" surgery, but from everything I've read so far, it's not too bad.  Just bad enough that he needs to take some time off to rest.  This situation reminds me of last spring training when John Lackey went down with an arm injury and missed the first few weeks of the season.  However, this season it doesn't appear the Angels have another pitcher to step up and take his place the way Joe Saunder and Santana himself did last year.  The Angels appear to be relying on Dustin Moseley and Shane Loux to replace the innings of Santana and Garland.  My thoughts are they won't be enough, or that is, they are good enough to pitch effectively the way the Angels are going to need them to pitch.  I believe the club needs to go out and find a better alternative to these pitchers, or at least one of them.  Names that have been thrown out there are Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, or revisiting a Jake Peavy deal.  With the exception of Mulder, I think this is a good idea.  If Martinez can be signed for a reasonable salary I believe he'd be a good addition to the staff.
   
• I haven't commented on the signing of Bobby Abreu.  Good signing, great salary.
   
• Is there a trade in the works?  I haven't heard anything, but I'd hope there's something brewing.  The Angels have depth to deal from and a need to fill (starting pitching) especially with the injury to Santana, so the smart money is on a trade happening.  Here's the order of who's available (in my opinion):
  1)  Chone Figgins
  2)  Erick Aybar
  3)  Jeff Mathis (if Napoli's shoulder will allow him to catch)
  4)  Brandon Wood
  5)  Relief pitching, especially those pitchers who are out of options such as Jason Bulger.  Rumor has it that the Padres are interested.
   
• It's still very early into spring training, but the Angels are playing very well.  The team has a record of 10-2 so far.  Brandon Wood is hitting .417 with 2 HR in 24 at-bats, Kendry Morales is also doing well batting .360 in 25 at-bats.  These two players are going to be important to the Angels success in 2009, so this is a good sign.  In 3 games (7 innings), Shane Loux hasn't allowed an earned run and Nick Adenhart has allowed just one run in 5 innings.  It's still way too early to tell with these two, but so far so good, but we're going to have to wait until the regulars start getting more time against them to tell if they'll be effective.