Jim: December 2008 Archives

I've been looking into player projections a bit more recently, and I was wondering what each team within the West Division looked like as of this moment, with free agent signings and trades as of today (12-30-08).  The projections are from the excellent website fangraphs.com, and were calculated using Bill James' formula. 

Angels

Bill James really likes Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood.  If those three players are able to put up these numbers next season, in addition to the projected rebound of Vladimir Guerrero and a healthy season from Howie Kendrick (612 AB!), the Angels offense should be just fine without adding any free agents.  In fact, the 162 home runs being projected by the starting nine are 3 more than the entire team hit last season.

A's

No wonder the A's were looking to sign Rafael Furcal to play short, as Bobby Crosby doesn't seem to fit into the Oakland style of hitting.  Jason Giambi would be a huge upgrade over Daric Barton at 1B.  The projected numbers for Matt Holliday's look good considering the were questions as to how he'd perform outside of Colorado.

Rangers

These guys can hit.  Six of the starting nine are projected to hit at least 20 HR and drive in 80 runs, with Chris Davis looking to lead the team in home runs with 40 after hitting 17 in under 300 AB in 2008.  I'm not too sure Catalanotto will be the starting DH, especially with so many better options out there.  If the Rangers are able to upgrade the DH spot in the batting order, Texas' offense could be devastating.  Good thing for Angels' fans the Rangers don't have any pitching.

Mariners

The Mariners have a long way to go if they want to compete in the near future.

Comparison

Obviously, these projections only show part of the equation for each teams' success.  I've been analyzing projections for a long time and I still don't trust pitcher's projections.  In my opinion, pitcher's projected stats are unreliable due to the multiple factors that impact a pitcher's season.

I wanted to take a couple extra days to allow the smoke to clear and to get my thoughts together before posting my comments on the Yankees signing Teixeira.  I've gone back and forth on whether the Angels should go all-in on re-signing Teix, or if they should let him go.  Now that he's signed with New York and the Angels have made it clear that they're not going after any other free agents other than possibly Brian Fuentes, I figured I may as well spout my opinion.

Torii Hunter was quoted in this LA Times article regarding Teixeira and the Angels' offer, "He said he really wanted to come back, but he needed the Angels to step up," Hunter said. "I didn't know what he meant, because I thought eight years and $160 million was a pretty impressive offer."  He needed the Angels to "step up"?  This is from a player who allowed his agent to let the Angels offer sit for almost two weeks without any response.  If he truly wanted to return to Anaheim he should have stepped up and told the Angels what it would take for him to return.  He could have said something like, "Look, I like the Angels and would be willing to return for a salary of $22M over 8 years.  This is less than some other offers, but that's what it will take."  I've read that Boras came back to the Angels and gave them one last chance (from this LA Times article)

"...another source said Tuesday that Boras had given the Angels one last chance to sign Teixeira on Monday, for eight years and about $176 million. The Angels declined, severing ties with the switch-hitter they acquired last July 29."

But then this nugget from the NY Daily News:

"It was then learned that Teixeira had favored the Yankees all along and according to sources he conveyed that to them this week."

We fans may never know what truly happened or the circumstances surrounding Teixeira negotiations and signing, but the feeling I get from all of this is, "Show me the money". 

Some other post-Teixeira thoughts:

• With the Yankees signing Teixeira, the Angels now have the 26th pick (plus another supplemental pick) in next year's draft.  That pick was orignally going to the Brewers after the Yanks signed C.C. Sabathia, but Teixeira has a higher Elias ranking than Sabathia meaning the pick now goes to the Angels.  The Angels now have the 25th pick (from NY Mets for K-Rod), the 26th pick, and the 33rd.  Plus they'll receive supplemental picks between the first and second rounds for K-Rod, Teixeira and Garland signing elsewhere.
• No Manny.  Angels' GM Tony Reagins stated, "Manny will not be an Angel," Reagins said. "We're going to give our kids an opportunity to play. We signed [outfielder] Juan Rivera to a three-year deal, and we think, given at-bats, he can be a productive player.  With Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews Jr. and Reggie Willits, our outfield is intact. It will not happen. We are not going to sign Manny Ramirez. End of story."  I wish I had some inside information on this so I could find out if it's more of a financial decision or possibly the Angels are tired of dealing with Scott Boras (both Teixeira and Ramirez are Boras clients).  Whichever the case, I'm a bit disappointed it's not going to be a "Manaheim" summer in SoCal.  It would have been fun to watch.
• No Adam Dunn.  Within the same "No Manny" article, Reagins added the Angels were not pursuing free-agent outfielders such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell.  I have a feeling this might change if the salary demands continue to drop.  The Halo ownership is too smart to let a play like Dunn, who would fill the hole in their line-up for a power bat, to go to another team if the price were right.  I've written before, and read the same opinion elsewhere, that if the Angels don't sign a free agent hitter this winter, there'll be plenty of high-impact talent available during the season.  With the nations economic uncertainty and teams needing to trim payroll, the Angels should be able to swing a deal or two (Lance Berkman?).
• A new closer?  I've read the Angels are looking into signing Brian Fuentes.  Fuentes originally was looking for a 3-year contract in excess of $30M-$33M, but like free agent outfielders, the market has slipped for closers.  If the Angels can sign Fuentes to a deal in the range of $8M-$9M a year, about $1M a year less than what they paid Frankie Rodriguez last season, it would be a good move.  This would allow Arredondo more time to prove he can handle MLB hitters.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas!  I want to send a special thank you to my sister and brother-in-law for the great time we had at their home...they're awesome people and we always enjoy spending time with them.

Okay, so the Angels aren't going to re-sign Mark Teixeira.  Or are they?  Last week, the Boston Red Sox claimed they were no longer going to "be a factor" in the saga that has become the Teixeira free agency.  Red Sox owner John Henry sent out an email stating, "We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him," Henry told AP. "After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."  Apparently this was his way of calling Scott Boras' bluff because if you're still reading about what's going on, the Red Sox are still in the running to land Teix.  Yesterday, according to team vice president of communications Tim Mead, the Angels dropped out of the pursuit for the free agent first baseman when they pulled their rumored 8-year offer off the table.  I think there are two possible scenarios going on here:

1. This is the Angels' way of calling Boras' bluff.  The Angels feel they've made a good offer to Teixeira and with the Red Sox claiming they're done dealing, this will put the pressure back on Teix to make up his mind.  The only remaining offers out there are from the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles - two teams not likely to field winning teams for a few years.  If the Angels had submitted the best offer, and Boston was no longer a factor, this would force Boras to come back to the Angels and look for them to reconsider if Teixeira truly wanted to play for a winner instead of just wanting to be on an east coast team.  I don't think this is what's happening, but it's possible.  But, here's what I think is going on...
2. The Angels are truly done dealing with Boras and are no longer trying to re-sign Teixeira.  Arte Moreno is probably the best owner in baseball, and he has assembled an excellent front office staff headed by GM Tony Reagins.  The team knows what they're doing and have a plan - or I should say "plans".  If they can't re-sign Teix, they know what their next step is and they figure it's now time to move on.  Boras counts on one team, or I should say team's owner to be stupid.  Just like Rangers' owner Tom Hicks, who in 2000, signed Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year/$252M contract.  Arte Moreno wasn't going to be that stupid owner who ends up bidding against himself, getting stuck with an over-priced player who would impact future financial dealings.  Don't get me wrong, I think Teixeira was an important piece for next season's success, but it gets to a point where the financial terms get out of hand or time becomes a factor when moving on to other options.  It became apparent to the Angels that Teixeira wasn't going to return to Anaheim and they didn't want to get shutout in possible other free agents or trades.  This whole situation has been holding up free agent signings as teams and players wait to see where Teixeira lands and which teams/players will become plan B options.  Arte Moreno and his team aren't going to be used by Boras to drive up the price for other teams, and figure, if you don't want to play for us, we don't want you.

So, what do the Angels do now? 

• Manny Ramirez.  I don't think so, not after the Angels re-signed OF Juan Rivera to a 3-year/$12.75 million deal last week.  Rivera obviously isn't the hitter Manny is, but he's costing the Angels about $20M less per year over the same years Ramirez was rumored to be asking for.  Plus, Ramirez is another Scott Boras client.  While I don't think the Angels are in the same situation the Atlanta Braves are with Rafael Furcal's agents and will not deal with Boras, it now looks like Boras is positioning the Ramirez negotiations to pit two teams against each other.  I doubt the Angels will be one of those teams.
• Adam Dunn.  I've been hoping the Angels would sign Dunn ever since the Diamondbacks didn't offer him arbitration allowing whichever team he signs with to keep their first-round pick.  Although Dunn is a below average defensive first baseman, his ability to play that position would fit the Angels' needs better than Manny.  Dunn would join the OF/DH/1B rotation with Kendry Morales and Vladimir Guerrero.  I've read that Dunn would prefer to play in Chicago for the Cubs, but I haven't heard if the feeling is mutual.
• Brian Fuentes.  The free agent closer has mentioned his preference is to play in Anaheim, but do the Angels need to spend approximately $10M/year on a closer?  If the free agent prices continue to fall, Fuentes could become an option, but a $30M/3-year deal doesn't make sense.  ESPN's Buster Olney thinks the price for Fuentes could drop to $15M - $18M over three years.  If that happens, the Angels should be in play to sign him.
• Bobby Abreu.  I would have never guessed I write this, but Abreu might be a decent option.  As contract prices fall, some players get more attractive and Abreu is one of those players.  A $30M/2-year contract didn't make sense, but a deal at half the price could be a bargain.
• Prince Fielder.  Trading for Fielder might not be realistic as it's uncertain the Brewers are truly looking to deal the big first baseman.  If they are, they'd require pitching in return.
• Joey Votto.  It's funny how internet trade rumors get started.  I read this in Peter Gammons posting that there's a possible deal involving the Red-White Sox-Angels where the Angels would send Chone Figgins to Chicago, Cinncinatti would receive Jermaine Dye and send Votto to Anaheim.  I don't know if Gammons has some information that this is a deal being discussed or if it's just something he came up with to fill column space, but it'd take more than just Figgiins to land Votto.
• No one.  This is always a teams' option in dealing with trades or free agents.  If the Angels stand pat with the team they have they would still be the pre-season favorites to win the West.  Once the season starts and players become available via trade, the Angels could then make a move to improve their roster once teams fall out of contention.

Whatever happens, I have faith in the Angels' ownership that they know what they're doing and they have a plan.

Am I the only one who feels this way, or do others have a hard time drawing up sympathetic feelings for what Mark Teixeira is going through?  Torii Hunter has stated that Teixeira is having a hard time sleeping at night, "Trust me, he's going through it right now,'' Hunter said of Teixeira. "He can't sleep at night. He's up at 5 in the morning. It's pretty rough for him right now.''  Don't get me wrong, I think Teixeira is a great ballplayer and deserves every cent he's going to receive in his next contract, but that doesn't mean I feel sorry for him.  He's got some tough decisions to make.  Such as which gated community should he buy his next multi-million dollar home?  Should he buy a Mercedes, Bentley or Escalade?  Will $20,000,000 be enough to make ends meet or will it take $23,000,000?  Tough decisions.

I once worked for a small medical device company who was having problems with one of their products.  I was given the task to find out what the problem was, what was causing the problem, and fixing the problem.  After spending a few weeks looking into every aspect of the product, it was determined that the ultra-sonic welding process was putting too much stress on an injection molded part.  This caused the part to breakdown in use making the product useless.  We readjusted the process and the product worked as advertised.  About a month later that product line was sold to a huge medical device company for a few million dollars and shortly after that, the owner of the company came into my office to chit-chat.  It seemed he was having a hard time deciding on which school in Switzerland to send his kid and it was keeping him up at night.  Should I have felt sympathy for my boss for his tough decision?   Hardly.  It was his company and he had worked hard to become successful, but just don't think I'm going to feel bad about your tough decisions when my own tough decisions are keeping me up at night.  Decisions like; should I pay the electric bill or the gas bill?  Can I take my kids to McDonald's or splurge and go to Denny's?

We all have tough decisions to make.

Daily Notes:

• I've heard rumors that Boston has offered Teixeira 8 years/$200M.  The rumor was started by Dan Patrick on ESPN radio when he was wondering if that would be what it'd take to sign him.  Apparently there has been no $200M offer made, but is it out of the question Teixeira could garner that big of a contract?  And should the Angels pay that much?  I posted the following over at Halo's Heaven:
  
  I agree, it'd be nice to have Teixeira back in Halo Red, but would spending $20M+ on one player be the best way to spend the dough?  If Teix leaves, the Angels lose a player capable of hitting 30+ HR, driving in 100 runs and getting on base 40% of the time, but could that production be replaced in a more cost effective way?  Yes.

  1)  Kendry Morales at 1B could be counted on for about 15 HR and 60 RBI, already on the payroll for $600K.
  2)  A player such as Dunn should be good for at least 35 HR, 90+RBI and the same 40% OBP, at a cost of approx. $13M.
  3)  A better #5 starter (such as Randy Johnson) for 12-14 wins...about 5-7 more wins than Moseley would get, for around $7M.

  So for the same $20M the Angels are getting 50HR, 150 RBI and a slight drop in OBP, plus a few more wins from the #5 starter.  Of course this doesn't take into account the LF who's batting order spot Dunn would take, but as of right now that spot is filled with Willits and then Matthews (when healthy).  I don't think either of those players makes much of an impact.

  I like Teixeira, but I think that money could be used more efficiently resulting in more wins.  This Angels team is good, and with a few breaks going their way in 2008, would have been in the World Series.  Something they can do in 2009 without Teixeira.

  
  
  The comments were pretty much split down the middle as some agreed with my thoughts and others felt he was worth the cost.  One mistake I made in my assumption was Willits being in LF, but if Teixeira is re-signed I think we'll probably see Morales in left which equals the output of Dunn/Morales.  I guess what I'm trying to say is, I think Adam Dunn would be an adequate replacement for Teixeira and at almost half the salary.  Salary which could be used to improve other areas of the club.  I'm reminding myself of former Angels' Gm Buzzie Bavasi who said he could replace Nolan Ryan with two 8-7 pitchers.  I'm not suggesting replacing Teixeira with two 15HR 75 RBI guys, but...okay, maybe I am.
• In our roundtable question answering thing I did with Blogs By Fans, I forgot to mention where my questions came from.  Mike from the Yankee blog "In Mo We Trust" sent the questions to me.  I meant to include a link to his site, but forgot.  And as links are the currency of bloggers, I feel I shorted him a bit.  So here's the link:  In Mo We Trust.  Go take a look at his Yankee thoughts.

We, the baseball writer for the Blog By Fans are having a round-table discussion about the recently concluded Winter Meetings.  It's now my turn to answer some questions regarding the Angels moves (or non-moves).  Here are the Mets - Giants - and Yankee responses.

1. Do you think Jose Arredondo is ready to close now that Francisco Rodriguez has moved on to the Mets or will the Angels use a bullpen-by-committee until he proves he can handle the role?

Honestly?  No, I don't think Arredondo is ready.  Don't get me wrong, I think he has great stuff, but last season was his first year in the majors.  While Frankie Rodriguez had a great first season, he was used as the 8th inning guy setting up Percival, Arredondo was used in less pressure situations last season as Scot Shields was the primary set-up man.  I think if the Angels don't go out and get an experienced closer, such as Brian Fuentes, Shields will be used in the ninth inning...at least at the start of the season.  If Shields falters, then Arredondo will be the first choice to step in, but waiting in the wings is Kelvim Escobar (after the All-Star break) and he's proven he can close.

2. Will the Angels re-sign Mark Teixeira? If not, who would you suggest they get to replace him?

No, I think he's going to sign with those bastards in Boston.  The feeling I get is the Angels have given Teixeira their best offer and won't get into a bidding war once the price goes above what they want to sign him to.  This means we'll be seeing Kendry Morales at first in 2009.  He's unproven, but to expect 15 HR and a .270 average wouldn't be out of the question.  Obviously Morales' production isn't going to replace Teixeira's, so I think the Halos will go out and get Adam Dunn who has just as much power as Teixeira, and can get on base at the same rate although he does strike out a lot.  Dunn could be signed for about half the price of Teixeira, leaving some payroll room to do some other things, like signing Randy Johnson or Milton Bradley.  And don't forget...Manny Ramirez is still out there!

3. The Angels are rumored to be interested in trading for Jake Peavy. Are the Halos set at starting pitching or would you be willing to part with players like Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart and Kevin Jepsen to land Peavy?

I like Jake Peavy, but I think he's an injury waiting to happen (he's already had elbow problems last season).  I'd rather see the Angels sign a player like Randy Johnson for one year, giving Adenhart and Moseley another year to mature.  If the Angels do trade for Peavy, I've heard Weaver or Saunders would most likely be involved in the deal and I'd hate to see either of them go, however if San Diego would go for the deal above the Halo rotation would be epic.  Runs prevented is as good as runs scored.  If the Angels get shutout in signing a slugger, this might be the way they go.

4. The AL West proved no match for the Angels last season. Do you expect the Halos to run away with the division next year or is there a team that could keep things interesting in 2009?

I'm afraid of Oakland.  Billy Beane's never been afraid to shake things up.  They've already gone out and traded for Matt Holliday and they're rumored to be the favorite to sign Rafael Furcal.  I've also read they may be bringing Jason Giambi back, who I think would be a steal.  If they sign those two and somehow get a couple starting pitchers, they're going to be tough.

In a previous post, I commented that I thought Jered Weaver would be, in a couple years, comparable to Jake Peavy.  I received one comment to the post which stated that I was wrong.  David wrote that Weaver's fastball has no movement and hitters have adjusted to Weaver deceptive motion to the plate.  I love it when people disagree with me because it gives me something to think about, and possibly something interesting to write about. 

I admit, I don't know much about a pitcher's lateral and/or vertical movement on their fastballs.  I watch almost every Angels' game and I can tell the difference between good players and average players, but my ability to "scout" players is lacking.  I typically rely on stats and general observations to form my opinions.  With pitchers I can judge their performances by pitch selection and location, but not by the finer details.  So, going back to the question; Is Weaver is going to be just as good as Peavy in a couple seasons?  Here's what I found...

Jake Peavy was selected in the 15th round of the 1999 amateur draft out of high school.  After spending 4 seasons in the Padre farm system, Peavy made his MLB debut at the age of 21 after being called up from double-A.  In his 4 minor league seasons, Peavy compiled a 2.59 ERA in 432 innings with 548 strike outs.  Upon reaching the majors at the age of 21, Peavy has gone 86-62 with a career ERA of 3.25...as we all know, he's been a very good pitcher.

Jered Weaver was the Angels' first round pick in the 2004 amateur draft after spending 4 years at Long Beach State.  Weaver spent 2 seasons in the minor leagues, throwing just 153 innings (he had 11 IP in 2007 as a rehab assignment).  In those 153 innings, Weaver struck out 188 batters.  Comparing Weaver and Peavy minor league SO%, Peavy did a little better with a 1.25 K/IP to Weaver's 1.22 although Peavy's numbers came in single and double-A, while Weaver split his time at all three levels.  Probably one of the biggest factors when comparing the two pitchers was Peavy was much younger than Weaver during their minor league careers, by the time Weaver was getting his professional career started (age 22), Peavy was already in the major leagues.  Here are their stats at age:

The numbers look pretty close.  However, as David points out in his comment, this was Weaver's first time through the league while this Peavy's 5th professional season, and third in the majors. 

Looks like the league kind of figured Weaver out his second season.  Also looks like Peavy stepped it up a bit at age 24, as he posted some excellent numbers.

At age 25, both pitchers appear to have slipped a little.  Weaver's ERA is a bit deceiving as his K rate improved, as did his WHIP.  It looks like Weaver had one or two bad innings during a start that inflated his ERA, and if I remember right, that was the impression I had watching him pitch last season.  He'd be cruising along and then suddenly he'd give up two or three runs.  I don't know if he lose focus, lacks a good "out pitch", or possibly he has problems pitching out of the stretch.

Another way to look at this is by season.

That looks really close.  The edge in strike outs goes to Peavy, while Weaver showed better control.  Peavy had his "break out" year during his third season and has gone on to have four excellent years out of the last five.  Could 2009 be Weaver's big year?  I would like to think so, but he'll have to pitch better with guys on base.  I have to agree with David's comment, unless Weaver is able to take his game to the next level and do better in pressure situations, he's not going to be as good as Peavy, but as of right now, I think it's a lot closer than David realizes.

Daily Notes:

• If you haven't already heard (I'm sure you have), Francisco Rodriguez signed with the New York Mets.  Reportedly K-Rod will get $37M over three years, slightly more than what the Angels had offered earlier this year.  I can't say I'm disappointed in seeing him go.  If you've been following my comments on Frankie over last season, you'd know I thought he was just an average closer who was in a unique situation as far as his number of opportunities resulting in his record-breaking save total.  Who's going to close for the Halo's next season?  I'm curious as to why the Angels haven't looked at Kerry Wood who is rumored to be close to signing with Cleveland.  From everything I've read the last week or so, he's available at a decent salary and willing to sign for just 2 years.  Yeah, he's been inury-prone his entire career, but last year was his first season he was used in relief and he did a good job closing out games for the Cubs.  Another plus, the Angels wouldn't lose a draft pick by signing him as the Cubs didn't offer him arbitration.  I heard a little talk regarding Brian Fuentes possibly coming to Anaheim, however, he'd cost the Angels just slightly less than what Rodriguez signed with the Mets.
• I have read that Randy Johnson is a possible free agent signing.  As I've written before, I think he'd be a great addition to the Halo rotation.  Plus it'd be fun to see him get his 300th win as an Angel.
• The longer it takes, the less I think Mark Teixeira is going to return to the Angels.  I might just be impatient, but I'm starting to read more about him going to Boston.  Add that to the rumor I read this morning that Sabathia has agreed to sign with the Yankees, means the Angels could be shutout of signing one of the two best free agents available.  I don't think it's a big deal as there are other players out there (at less money) who could be very useful, but it could be a big blow to the casual Halo fans who want to see the high-dollar names.

Over the last few days, I've been reading a lot about major league shortstops.  There's been one trade, San Diego sent Khalil Greene to the Cardinals.  One free agent signing, Edgar Renteria was signed by the Giants for $18.5M for two years.  One deal-no deal where Jack Wilson was reportedly sent to Detroit, but then apparently not.  And one rejected offer by Rafael Furcal, who told Oakland their 4 year offer wasn't good enough.  The Angels have 3 shortstops who could start form many teams in Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis and Brandon Wood which puts them in a position to match up with teams in need at that position.  I believe if the Angels make a deal at next week's GM meeting, it'll be one involving Erick Aybar.  Below are each team's shortstop (according to ESPN's depth charts):

Detroit and the Dodgers are two teams most recently looking to trade to fill their hole at short.  Both teams were rumored to have acquired Jack Wilson from Pittsburgh, but those rumors were premature as Wilson is still with the Pirates.  Other teams possibly in the market to upgrade their infield are San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh (if they trade Wilson).  I've also read Houston would like to dump Miguel Tejada, but they'd be hard pressed finding another team willing to take him off of their hands.

The Angels' needs are pretty simple.  If they don't sign one of the big dollar free agents; Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez, they're going to need a leftfielder to replace Garret Anderson if they don't plan on moving Chone Figgins to that position, and the Halos could use some help in the bullpen.  How do the Angels match up with the teams looking for a shortstop?  Let's take a look:

Detroit:  There were rumors earlier this off season where the Tigers were considering sending Magglio Ordonez to Anaheim for a catcher, shortstop and a pitcher.  I thought this was a good fit for both teams if the Tigers would have agreed to acquire Jeff Mathis, Erick Aybar and a pitcher such as Moseley.  Ordonez is getting older, but still has the ability to get on base and drive in runs.  The slow-footed right fielder was a below average defender, but would benefit with a move to the other side of the outfield.  The Tigers are reportedly in discussions with Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson.

Los Angeles:  The Dodgers have also been rumored to be in the mix to acquire Wilson, but their desire to not take on any of his salary is causing the talks to move slowly.  In this L.A. Times article, the Dodgers look to acquire a shortstop via trade, but the article doesn't name any players they're looking at.  I don't see a good match up between the two L.A. teams unless the Dodgers are willing to deal Matt Kemp.  Latest rumor has Kemp going to the Yankees in a Robinson Cano deal, but if he is truly available, the Angels should be all over him.

San Diego:  With their trade last week with the Cardinals, the Padres need to find a replacement for Khalil Greene a short unless they want to go with Luis Rodriguez.  Before last season, the 28 year-old Rodriguez had not acquired more than 200 at bats in the majors (he had 202 AB lat year) and was primarily used at 2B and 3B.  Jake Peavy is still a Padre, but San Diego has stated that dealing Peavy is no longer a top priority for them.  Erick Aybar could be part of a deal that would send Peavy to the Angels, but there other players the Halos would have to include...such as Jered Weaver or Howie Kendrick.  I'm not a big fan of a deal that includes Weaver as I feel in a couple years he may be close to the same performance level as Peavy at a more reasonable cost.

Oakland:  The A's made a play for Rafael Furcal, offering him a 4 year deal (I haven't heard for how much), but Furcal declined the offer.  This deal is probably not dead, as Oakland wants an upgrade over Bobby Crosby and there aren't that many clubs looking to sign a free agent shortstop.  I don't see the inter-division rivals making any deals with each other.

Baltimore:  Who knows what they're doing in Baltimore.  They have light-hitting Brandon Fahey penciled in as their shortstop.  The 27 year-old hasn't shown much with the bat and looks to be an average defender.  The Orioles have left handed Luke Scott in left.  Scott is coming off his first year playing full time, where he hit 23 home runs, but got on base at just a .366 rate.  Melvin Mora may be easier to obtain mainly because of his age.  The 36 year-old's primary position has been 3B, where he plays average defense, but with his age creeping up on him he should see his range start to decline, if it hasn't already.  One positive with Mora is he's signed for just one more year (with a club option for 2010) and at a reasonable salary of $9M.  Another possible Oriole to be available is Aubrey Huff who is coming off a excellent year in which he clubbed 32 home runs and batted .304.  Mostly playing DH, Huff can fill the 3B position, but is just an average (at best) defender.  He too is signed through next year and at a salary of $8M.  With the addition of Mora or Huff, the Angels would most likely put Figgins in left.  If the Angels do talk to Baltimore about any deals, they should also include relief pitcher George Sherrill.  The lefty closer, obtained prior to last season from Seattle, has been rumored to be available and could add depth to the Angels bullpen.

While cruising around the internet, I came across some projected stats over at Fangraphs.  The methods used to create player projections have improved over the years, but they're still just a tool that gives a "best guess" as to what a player is expected to do.  Obviously, injuries can not be predicted, and in most cases, breakout years (see Ryan Ludwick), but they're fun to look at and play around with.

Below are the projected numbers for the Angels' line-up as it stands right now and last year's stats for the players who had the majority of playing time.  No Teixeira, no Dunn, and no Manny.  The only changes I made to the projected numbers was to increase the totals for Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales as both of these player's playing time should increase if no other players are brought in this off season.

Here's the totals next to each other so they're easier to compare:

The drop in team performance wasn't as bad as I thought it'd be.  With additional playing time of Wood and Morales, I would have thought the decrease would have been worse.  If either one of these players can provide that breakout season, the team's offensive output won't be too far off from last season...which isn't saying too much as last season the Angels ranked in the middle of the league in most offensive categories.  Here are some projections for potential free agent additions, the two players I think the Angels have the best chance to sign:

With Dunn replacing Matthews in the outfield and Teixeira taking away some of Morales', Wood's and Figgin's at-bats, the offensive numbers look like this:

So, for approximately $35M in increased salary, the Angels' offense would receive an additional 18 runs and 22 HR, a slight increase in OBP and SLG, and a decrease in batting average in replacement value.  Doesn't sound like much of a bargain.  Let's take Dunn out and put Figgins in leftfield and Wood at third full time, and bump up Morales' playing time a bit:

Besides the slight drop in batting average, the 2009 team doesn't look much different than the 2008 version.  And why is that?  I think the addition of Teixeira to the line up for the entire year is off-setting the loss of Garret Anderson and the inability of Wood and Morales to replace Anderson's numbers.  This is one thing I hadn't given much thought to; adding a player's stats to the team totals isn't enough unless you remove the stats of the player being replaced.  I know that's a "no-brainer", but I'm sure a lot of people don't give that enough thought when considering signing a free agent.  One more scenario and we're done.  What if Teixeira signs with another team and the Angels are able to sign Dunn?  Replacing Matthews with Dunn, playing Morales full time and keeping Figgins at third base, here's what the projections say:

Not much of a change at all from 2008.  If the Angels are able to sign Dunn for right around the amount they paid Anderson in 2008 ($12M), and with the gained experience Morales gets from playing full time, this might be the most cost effective route the Angels could go.  The Angels' main competition will come from Oakland, especially if they add another player such as Rafael Furcal and improve their pitching staff.  I think the Angels' are still the favorite to win the West, but signing Teixeira for $20M+ doesn't do much for the Angels' offense and doesn't improve their chances a whole lot. 

I realize these are just projections and aren't a complete picture of what will happen in 2009, but this does provide some information as to the effect of adding and subtracting players from the roster.  In the long run...2010 and beyond, the Angels might be better off with Morales at first and using the money saved from not re-signing Teixeira for other needs.  Plus, with a possible 7 picks in the first and supplemental rounds of next year's draft, the Halos may be on the verge of many years of American League domination.  Do I still think the Angels should re-sign Teixeira?  Sure, but based on this information, my heart won't be broken if they don't.

Daily Notes:

• Kerry Wood wasn't offered arbitration by the Chicago Cubs.  Wood made $4.2M in 2008, but was an effective closer for the Cubs and is due an increase in salary...probably the main reason Chicago declined to offer him arbitration.  Depending on the increase, Wood may be a viable option for the Angels bullpen.  Yeah, he's injury prone, but who knows how Arredondo and/or Shields will do in closer situations.  Wood would provide insurance in case Arredondo's not ready, or Shields is ineffective.  Of course, only at a reasonable salary and from everything I've been reading, salaries (especially closer's salaries) may take a hit based on the effects of the down-turned economy.  If Wood can be had for $7M-$8M, plus incentives, I think the Angels should at least kick the tires on him.
• Another free agent relief pitcher who seems to be flying under the radar is Eric Gagne.  He's been awful the last year and a half, but he had Tommy John surgery in 2005, a procedure that usually requires at least a year to recover from, and a major setback in 2006.  Just a gut feeling, but I think Gagne is a good choice for a return to at least becoming an effective reliever.  Once again, if the price is right, Gagne might be another option for the Halos.
• The San Diego Padres have traded Khalil Greene to the St. Louis Cardinals.  What does this mean to the Angels?  The Padres now have a need for a shortstop, a position the Angels have the depth to trade from.  Although I don't think a Peavy deal is in the Angels' future, this does increase the chances for something to happen.
• The Halo Is Lit is the proud sponsor of Baseball-Reference.com's 1979 California Angels team page.  Kind of my way of celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Angels' first division win.

On December 4th, 1979, the Angels made the first of two trades with the Twins.  The Angels sent Ron Jackson and Danny Goodwin to Minnesota.  The versatile Jackson had spent the previous four seasons with California, playing 6 different positions...including one appearance at shortstop, but mostly manning first and third base.  The Alabama native had been selected in the second round by the Angels during the 1971 amateur draft and made his major league debut on September 12, 1975, going 2 for 3 with an RBI and stolen base against Royals' pitcher Al Fitzmorris (who would spend part of the 1978 season with the Halos, see previous 1979 post).  Jackson was coming off his best season in Anaheim where he batted .297 in 387 at-bats, and would do better in 1979 playing first base full-time in Minnesota where he hit .271 while clubbing 14 home runs and scoring 85 times.

In return for Jackson and Goodwin, the Angels received "Disco" Dan Ford to replace the murdered Lyman Bostock.  The former first round draft pick of the Oakland A's in 1970, Ford took over right field for the Angels in 1979.  Typically hitting second in the Halo batting order behind Carney Lansford and ahead of Rod Carew, Ford had his career year in which he hit .290 with 21 home runs, 101 RBI and 100 runs scored.

The Twins' rookie of the year in '75, Ford quickly became popular on the field and in the Minneapolis social scene. A loyal fan following spawned, as did his nickname, "Disco" Dan Ford.  "I had some friends that owned a disco. We started the disco club out of there," he said. "We officially made it with some T-shirts and a trophy, and we brought it to the stadium. That's what made it really get going, 200-300 people had bought T-shirts and sat out in right field on occasions."  Ford retired from baseball after the 1985 season with a .270 average, 121 homers and 566 RBIs. With the game behind him, he went on to do some intervention work with troubled children. He also owned a batting school and worked in real estate.  Having retired altogether from working in 2002, Ford now spends most of his time managing rental properties and does some fishing and hunting. A Southern California native, he resides most of the time at his 20-acre horse ranch in Benton, La., a long way from the discos of the past.  (Mark Sheldon / MLB.com)

In another move made by the Angels that would have an impact on the '79 season, the Halos signed free agent pitcher Jim Barr on December 3rd.  The 31 year-old starter would go 10-12 with a 4.20 ERA in 36 games (25 starts). 

Daily Notes:

• ESPN's Rob Neyer wrote a couple things about the Angels last week.  In one article Neyer writes about Garret Anderson's chances at getting 3000 hits:
  
  ...let's assume that Anderson's defense is good enough, for another four years, to merit regular play in left field. Let's also assume that he doesn't suffer any significant injuries. As Dylan Hernandez notes, Anderson has averaged 159 hits per (healthy) season, and if he continues to average 159 hits per season he'll have 3,004 hits. Of course, that also assumes zero decline due to the natural aging process.

  Which is, of course, highly unlikely. And if he does decline, his chances of playing regularly plummet accordingly. You can do the math: Anderson is exceptionally unlikely to reach 3,000 hits, because he isn't going to be healthy enough or good enough to earn the playing time he would need.
  
  In another article, Neyer predicts the addition of C.C. Sabathia to the Angels' rotation would add 3 or 4 wins to the Angels' total.  Here's what he wrote:
  
  My first reaction was that the Angels need another starting pitcher like they need another hitter who doesn't walk or hit home runs. After all, their starters finished with the fifth-best ERA in the American League last season, and they'd have been second-best if John Lackey hadn't been out for six weeks.

  But the Angels' worst starter (by a lot) was Jon Garland, and Garland's now a free agent. Replace Garland with Sabathia and you gain something like 30-40 runs; three or four wins. That might not seem like a lot, but that just points out how little difference one player, even one great player, can make. Sabathia has been about as good as anybody over the last three seasons, but he's averaged 16 wins per season over that span. Jon Garland won 14 games in 2008 (and has averaged 14 wins over the last three seasons).

  Which isn't to suggest the Angels shouldn't go after Sabathia. Someone has to suck up Garland's innings, and there aren't any obviously viable candidates in the organization. Sure, the Angels' glaring weakness is their team on-base percentage and Sabathia's not going to address that. But a run saved is at least as valuable as a run scored, so I see little downside to the Angels spending their money on the best available pitcher.
  
  The first sentence of the above quote sounds a lot like a spot for Adam Dunn to fill, but I agree with Neyer.  If the Angels can't improve their offense, they may as well improve their pitching to take some pressure off of their hitter to score runs.  A wins a win, regardless if the score's 2-1 or 7-4.

• If you haven't already heard, the Angels offered arbitration to 4 of their 5 free agents (Teixeira, Rodriquez, Oliver and Garland), while deciding to not offer arbitration to Garret Anderson.  With the offers to the 4 free agents, the Angels are guaranteed to receive 7 additional picks in next year's draft if the players sign with another team.  The players have until next Sunday to decide if they would accept arbitration.  In this L.A. Times article, the speculation is Oliver and Garland will accept, and Teixeira and Rodriguez will decline.  I agree with the assumption that Oliver will accept.  He's a Type A free agent which means any club who signs him would lose their first round pick and it is unlikely another team would give up a first rounder for a 38 year-old reliever.  Everything I've read about Garland has been his desire for a multi-year contract.  If he accepts arbitration, the Angels would be on the hook for at least $9.6M for one year.  In not offering Anderson arbitration, the Angels will not be eligible to receive a supplemental pick (Anderson is a Type B free agent) if he signs with another club, but they avoid the risk of Anderson accepting arbitration and returning to the team at no less than $8.8M, plus the $3M already paid when they declined his 2009 option.
• Speaking of Adam Dunn, he was not offered arbitration by the Diamondbacks which means the team who signs the Type A free agent will not have to give up their first round draft pick.  This makes Dunn even more attractive to teams looking for a high OBP, low batting average power hitter.  Pat Burrell wasn't offered arbitration by the Phillies, but the Angels should still stay away for him.