In a quote within Bill Shalkin's article in the LA Times, Angels medical director Lewis Yocum stated that although Ervin Santana has a partially torn ligament in his right elbow, he can pitch this season without reconstructive (Tommy John) surgery. Dr. Yocum feels Santana may be able to pitch effectively after rehabilitation and rest. Are you thinking, "Finally, some good news on the health of Angels' pitchers"? Well, Suzy Sunshine, I'm here to pee in your corn flakes.
Although he may be able to pitch this season, how effective will he be? Within a posting I wrote back in February (LINK) about pitcher projections, I linked to a Razzball study of theirs which ranked the 20 injury risk pitchers for 2009. In their study, Santana was listed 12th because of the number of sliders he threw in 2008. I've read a few articles about which pitchers are more likely to get hurt this season, but those were based on the number of innings pitched or the actual number of pitches thrown, not the types of pitches a player threw. Most articles pointed to C.C. Sabathia as a likely injury risk because of the abuse people thought the Brewers subjected him too in the time he was in Milwaukee. Razzball picked Santana 20th because of his over reliance on his slider. One of the criteria for compiling the list was the percentage of curves or sliders a pitcher threw; above 27% was bad, above 30% was worse, etc. Last season, Santana threw his slider 35% of the time, "He's maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in '06 to 33% in '08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009." If the growing reliance on his slider is the main reason for his success, and throwing the slider is what caused the injury, how willing is Santana going to be to throw his most effective pitch? And if he's not willing to throw his best pitch, what kind of season will he have relying on his other pitches? I'm not saying his other pitches are garbage, but the Angels can't afford to send the 2007 version of Santana out to the mound every 5th day.
Although it's good news Santana won't require surgery...yet, it still doesn't negate the fact that he is injured and will probably throw like an injured pitcher.
Daily Notes:
- Through 30 at-bats, Brandon Wood his hitting .438, but
the most telling statistic is his strikeouts...two. That's right, he has
the same number of strikeout as he does home runs. How fantastic would
it be for Wood to carry-over his late season success from last year and put
together an "Evan Longoria-like" season? As much as I root for Wood's
success, I have to point out two things; 1) Small sample size. There
have been many, and when I say many I mean thousands of players who have had
fantastic spring trainings only to have it not translate into regular season
success. 2) He's basically being successful against the same pitching he
torn apart the last two years in the minor leagues. We should wait until
later this month to see if Wood can have the same success against the pitchers
he'll face during the regular season. I don't mean to be a downer
regarding Wood, in fact his strikeout total thus far this spring is a very
good sign. Last season at 3A Salt Lake, Wood struck out 104 times in
just under 400 at-bats. It does look like Wood has "figured something
out" in regards to making more consistent contact.
- It looks like Joe Saunders' shoulder problems were just
early spring tightness. Saunders went 4 innings Saturday without
allowing a run while giving up just 3 hits, while also providing an RBI single
in the second inning. I would think if there was anything truly wrong
with Saunders, Mike Scioscia wouldn't have allowed him to swing the bat.
New Angels' closer Brian Fuentes also threw a scoreless inning during the same
game. There had been word Fuentes was suffering from an achy back, but
that also seems to have been just early pre-season stiffness.
- The Angels lead the major leagues with 12 wins so far this spring. Last season the Angels had the second best winning percentage during spring and they went out and had the most wins in franchise history.
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