More Pitcher Projections

I've mentioned before how much I like the website FanGraphs mainly because they provide so much information.  Some of it goes way over my head, but most of it a typical fan can figure out which leads to more knowledgeable fans...which is always a good thing.  While I was going through some player stats, I noticed FanGraphs provides 2009 season projections from three different sources; Bill James, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith (of Angels All The Way).  I've previously written about the Angels projected stats for next season, but those were based on just one set of projections.  I'm a staunch believer of the wisdom of crowds.  In other words, the more input you receive on a subject, the more likely its right.  Kind of like using the audience lifeline on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire".  Below are the projections for the Angels four starting pitchers for next season based on the input from all three sources.  But first, here are their totals from last season:
 

Before getting to the projections I wanted to point out a couple things that stand out to me when looking back on these numbers.  The first is how really good this group of pitchers were.  As a fantasy baseball geek, one of the earliest things I remember learning to looking at in evaluating pitchers was to see if their hits allowed was less than their innings pitched.  It was a quick way to see if the player was pitching at least adequately.  All four of these players had less hits than innings pitched.  Going out on a limb, I'd bet there hasn't been more than 4 or 5 teams in the last 10 season to have each of their four starting pitchers have less hits than IP.  There other thing I noticed was the amount of home runs John Lackey gave up.  He led the staff in HR allowed and yet he pitched the least amount of innings.  The 26 home runs Lackey gave up in 2008 were the most since 2003 when he allowed 31, but those 31 were over 204 IP.  Breaking it down by HR/IP, it looks like this:

His career number for HR/IP prior to 2008 was .093, which he almost doubled last season.  Lackey began 2008 on the disabled list with a strained forearm, but prior to that he's been pretty healthy.  One warning sign some people use to project injuries is the number of pitches a player has thrown over the last few seasons.  Before last season, Lackey had thrown over 3000 pitches for 5 straight season, but according to a study at Razzball that looks into pitchers' injuries, the number of pitches thrown doesn't have much of a correlation to injuries.  What their study found was the percentage of curveball/sliders a pitcher throws over the course of a season (more on that below).  Was Lackey feeling the effects of his forearm strain throughout 2008 or was it something else? 

From that pitchers study at Razzball, they created a list of 20 pitchers who are injury risk for 2009.  Ervin Santana is ranked 12th on their list mainly from his over-reliance on his slider which puts more strain on his elbow.

12. Ervin Santana
2008 Curve/Slider % - 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,526
Difference From 2007:  +917 (est. -414 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches - NO

Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008.  He's maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in '06 to 33% in '08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.

So that's two of the four Angels' starters that there's concern about.  Anyway, I sort of got off-track.  Here are the combined projections:

The projected totals have the Angels starters having 10 less wins, 6 more losses, and a slightly higher ERA.  One of things I found interesting was the only pitcher they projected to have more innings pitched in 2008 was Lackey.  What I take away from that is they're not too confident that Santana, Saunders, and Weaver can duplicate their 2008 seasons.  When I looked at it a little closer, I think the reason the projections for Saunders are worse than 2008 is because he held hitters to a BABIP of .267.  The league average for batting average of balls in play is right around .300.  The theory is a higher BABIP means the pitcher was "unlucky" and less suggests the pitcher was "lucky".  I'm not sure I really buy into that theory, but it's something to watch next season with Saunders.  The three projections actually have Weaver doing a bit better than last season based on ERA and his wins are the same.  I've written before that I think Weaver is on the same career track as Jake Peavy.  That might be optimistic, but I do think Weaver is still getting better and we have yet to see his best seasons.

My projections?  I'm far from an expert at predicting future performance, but that won't stop me from giving my thoughts.  I think Weaver will be the ace in 2009 winning 17 games and having a sub-4.00 ERA.  Santana won't do as well as he did last season, but he won't do as poorly has 2007.  The 12 wins he's projected to get above sound about right to me too, however he's going to miss a start or two due to fatigue or injury.  Same with Lackey.  I think this is going to be his worst season of his career, and a season where he's also going to miss time because of injury.  He'll see those 12 wins but he'll also have double-digit losses as well.  I think Joe Saunders is going to do fine.  I don't think he'll win 17 like last season, but he'll win more than the 12 projected, and have solid all-around stats.

The most important information I take away from this is the need for another starter.  Moseley, Adenhart, or one of the other rookie pitchers might be a cost-effective #5 starter, but I don't think the Angels have the depth within their organization to replace the season Jon Garland gave them in 2008.  But most of all, I don't think they have the depth to replace the innings if Lackey, Santana, Saunders, or Weaver can't duplicate their 2008 seasons.