February 2009 Archives

Now that Cactus League games are finally underway and here are my top 5 things to watch for during this spring:

Will the real Kendry Morales please stand up
I often read about how people are concerned if Morales will be able to take over for Mark Teixeira.  It seems people have forgotten Teixeira wasn't on the Angels' opening day roster last season.  In fact, Sean Rodriquez, Rob Quinlan, and Brandon Wood played in more games for the Angels last season than Teixeira.  So, Morales isn't replacing Teixeira, he's replacing Casey Kotchman.  But I'm not convinced he can adequately replace Kotchman...and I don't think the Angels are completely convinced either.  Morales has had a fantastic minor league career where he's compiled a .901 OBS in 4 seasons.  However, the minor league success hasn't translated into major league hits.  The thing that bothers me about Morales is he hardly ever draws a walk, which seems to be pretty typical of Angels' hitters, but in 404 major league plate appearances, Morales has just 27 base on balls (3 intentional) resulting in a career OBP or .302.  I don't know if the lack of walks is because he can't work the count or if he's just a "free-swinger" since it appears he has good strike zone judgment (he's struck out just 56 times in those 404 PA), it just hasn't been converted into consistent performance.  During the 2006 season Morales appeared in 57 games (197 AB) and hit .234/,293/.371, but in 2007 Morales hit a respectable .294/.333/.479 in 119 at-bats.  Last season in just 61 at-bats, Morales hit a poor .213/.273/.393.  Which is the true Morales?  Unless Kendry does extremely bad during spring training he'll open the season as the Angels' first baseman, but I think if he gets off to a slow start, the Angels may look into other options via trade...again.
 

The opening day shortstop will be?
Erick Aybar?  Maicer Izturis?  Brandon Wood?  Miguel Tejada (just kidding).  Either because of trade or injury, the Angels will probably use the last man standing at shortstop to open the season.  I'm hoping to see Wood at this position as it will allow the Angels to show more patience with his bat.  If he starts off slowly, it's less of an impact if he's playing shortstop than if he's at third base.  I know that sounds strange, and you may ask, "why does it matter which position he's playing if he's not hitting?"  I think the preception in baseball is there's more allowances for a light-hitting shortstop than there is for a third baseman who's not getting the job done with the bat.  Another way to look at the shortstop situation is; Can Wood hit well enough to replace Aybar's bat?  Aybar is slightly better than Wood with the glove (Aybar's range factor is 4.33 , Wood's RF is 3.29), so unless Wood can provide more hitting ability than he has shown in the past, there might not be any room for him on the major league roster for him to get fulltime at bats.  A Brandon Wood / Howie Kendrick infield would remind me of the Detroit Tigers' outstanding middle infield of Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker from the late 1970's to the early 1990's.  How awesome would that be?

Abreu or Rivera in leftfield?
Expect to see newly-acquired Bobby Abreu in leftfield early this spring.  The Angels already know what Juan Rivera can do on the field, so I think they'll want to see for themselves just how bad of a fielder Abreu is.  Abreu hasn't played leftfield in over 12 years (and then it was just 10 games), and no one outside of the Angels' organization and Abreu himself know for sure how much playing time he was told he'd get when he signed.  We all know the Angels are a better team with Abreu at DH and Rivera in left, let's see if the Angels know that.

Who gets traded?
I think the Angels are going to make a deal this spring.  I think they have to make a deal.  Not right away, but before they break camp and head to Anaheim.  The Angels are slightly below last season's payroll total, which leaves them some room if they decide to take on salary for an established player.  This club has depth at short to trade from, especially if they have plans of playing Brandon Wood at that position, making either Erick Aybar or Macier Izturis expendable.  The Angels also have more depth in the middle of the infield with the play of Sean Rodriquez last season at Salt Lake City.  If Wood has a strong spring, and the front office decides he'd be a better fit at third base, Chone Figgins could possibly be had in a deal.  The only holes that need to be filled is at the backend of the rotation, or if it looks like Morales isn't going to work out (see above) another bat at first base.  Possible trade options - Aybar and/or S-Rod for a starting pitcher, Figgins to the White Sox for Paul Konerko, or a package deal for Jake Peavy.  There are too many reason for the Angels to deal, something's going to happen and it's just a matter of time.

Who's the 5th starter?
I have no idea because I think they all suck.  At least in 2009.  Okay, I know it's the #5 starter and no team in baseball has a #5 starter who's capable of having a great season...a Cy Young season, but with the Angels offense once again lacking that "big bat", giving up every 5th game could come back to haunt the club if one of the other division rivals makies a run at first place.  Here's my Vegas odds of who'll open the season at the backend of the Angels' rotation:
 

When the Angels signed three-time all-star pitcher Brian Fuentes to a 2-year contract to be the team's closer in 2009, it marked a major step away from the organization's use of home-grown closers.  In the proceeding 21 seasons -- with the exception of 1995 when the Halo's had Lee Smith -- the club has used pitchers who have either been drafted or signed by the Angels organization as their closer.  While other organizations spend heavily on free agent closers or trade for relievers, year after year, the Angels have proven they're able to develop elite-level bullpen options within their own organization.  Over the last 20 years, 4 players have filled the closer's role for the Angels while having pitched exclusively within the Angels' minor / major league systems.

Bryan Harvey 1988 - 1991
Joe Grahe 1992 - 1994
Troy Percival 1996 - 2004
Francisco Rodriquez 2005 - 2008

Entering the 2009 season, the Angels had another internal option to replace Rodriquez.  Jose Arredondo had very solid numbers in 2008, a season which compared favorably to Francisco Rodriquez's season in which he spent setting-up Troy Percival ('04). 

However, the difference between 2005 K-Rod and 2009 Arredondo is Rodriquez had 170 dominating innings pitched in the majors, where Arredondo has pitched just 61 innings.  The Angels' front office must not have felt completely confident that Arredondo could assume the closer role after just one major league season.  Scot Shields was also an option to work the ninth innings in 2009, but he has been one of the major league's best set-up men and the Angels apparently didn't want to mess with success.  One of the Angels' biggest strengths has been their bullpen, and with the addition of Fuentes as closer, it leaves both Shields and Arredondo in roles in which they flourished allowing the Angels to shutdown the other team's offense after the 6th inning.

In signing Fuentes, the Angels get a pitcher whose effectiveness compares to previous Angels' closers.  Fuentes has spent the previous 4 seasons as the Rockies' closer where he has accumulated 111 saves and posted an ERA of 3.04.  Below are the stats for each pitcher that were produced while filling the closer role and how Fuentes compares with successful Angels' closers of recent history:

Another big change for the Angels closer situation is Fuentes is a southpaw.  The Angels haven't used a lefty closer since Andy Hassler saved 10 games for the Halos in 1980.  Fuentes has been just as difficult on right-handed hitters (.225 batting average against) as he is on lefties (.215) over his career.  According to some great, in-depth analysis by Josh Kalk at Harball Times:

Fuentes greatly reduced the number of change-ups he threw to right-handed batters and replaced them with more sinkers and some sliders. Normally I would say that this is a bad thing because the slider is moving toward a right-handed batter and the pitcher is much more likely to make a mistake with that pitch. Here, though, I think this absolutely was the right move for Fuentes, because his change-up isn't as good as some other lefties' and his slider is rather slurvy so it will stay low in the zone even if it gets too much of the plate. This also gives right-handed batters something else to think about instead of assuming they're facing a two-pitch pitcher.

Against left-handed batters, Fuentes reduced the number of sinkers he threw in favor of more sliders. Again, this is likely a good move because his sinker has such inward movement to left-handed batters. Throwing more sliders, especially in fastball counts, is going to force the hitter to protect the outer part of the plate instead of just looking inside for the sinker. In 2007, Fuentes overwhelmingly threw a sinker to start the at-bat against left-handed batters, but last year he mixed in enough sliders to keep the hitter off balance. Even though Fuentes throws only two pitches to left-handed batters, both are plus pitches, so there is no reason to mess around with a change-up here.
 

And he adds:

This signing looks like a steal to me. While Fuentes will probably not benefit as much as other pitchers would from moving from Coors to Angels Stadium because of his sinker and his large strikeout rates, Fuentes looks like a good bet to be one of the top relievers again. Keep an eye on how many sliders he throws to right-handed batters; if he continues to throw that pitch, he should continue to be solid against righties.

While it would be foolish to think that Fuentes will rack up as many saves as K-Rod did last year, I would expect him to be among the league leaders and a very solid investment for the Angels. Age will catch up with him eventually, but I don't see it happening in the next few years for which the Angels are on the hook.

Not to take anything away from the record breaking season he had in 2008, or Francisco Rodriquez' fantastic career as an Angel, nor to downgrade the future of Jose Arredondo, the move away from home-grown closers for at least the two years Fuentes is signed for is the right move for the Angels.

Below are the rankings (according to ESPN) for each of the Angels' players.  Each player has their positional, league, and overall rankings, plus their dollar value.  Remember, these rankings are for fantasy baseball purposes only and do not reflect a player's true overall value in "real life":

Napoli ranked third in the American league at the catcher's position primarily because of his 30 home run potential (he hit 20 HR last season in just 227 AB).  Unless you really love the guy, Mathis should be avoided.

Morales is an unknown.  His potential is undeniable as he's put up outstanding numbers in the minors, but that success hasn't translated into major league success.  Given enough at-bats, Morales should put up numbers that won't hurt your fantasy team, but might not help much either.

The main concern regarding Kendrick is his ability to stay healthy.  If he's able to play an entire season, he's capable of helping your fantasy team from the middle infield spot in each of the 5 standard categories.

Figgins' fantasy value has slipped a bit from last season as he's no longer stealing bases at the same rate as a couple years ago.  Another factor holding down his value is he plays a position that typically is manned by a middle-of-the-order type player with more power and RBI potential, not a lead-off hitter.  Wood has the potential to be that middle-of-the-order type as he has great power, but given a full-time job in the majors, he'll hurt your fantasy team batting average.

Aybar's primary strength is his defense, which usually isn't a fantasy baseball category.  He's not going to hurt your fantasy team, especially from the shortstop position, but he's also not going to provide any offensive help either.  Wood's fantasy value increases as a shortstop.  There aren't too many middle infielders who have the same power potential, and his batting average shouldn't be much below the league average shortstop's.

Vladimir Guerrero is a fantasy stud who helps your team in each offensive category.  He's not quite the dominating player as he used to be, since 30+ home runs will probably remain out of reach, but he should continue to put up good numbers from the middle of the Angels' batting order.  A defensive liability in real life, Bobby Abreu owners don't have to worry about his limited mobility in the field and allergies to outfield walls because he still can generate great fantasy numbers.  Abreu might see his RBI total drop as he's projected to bat second in the Angels' batting order, but his high OBP will help him generate 100+ runs scored (and may increase his stolen base totals).  Torii Hunter's not a top fantasy player, but he does fill the fourth or fifth outfield spot on your team since he can put up decent numbers without hurting your team.  Juan Rivera has sleeper potential if he's able to get enough at-bats.  Originally slated to be the full-time LF, Rivera will probably lose some at-bats to Abreu.  If he's able to get playing time, he has the potential to hit 25+ home runs and a fair amount of RBI's and runs.  Mathews and Willits don't have any fantasy value unless the Angels lose a couple players to injury, and even then it won't be much.

John Lackey is the Angels' fantasy MVP, ranked as the 3rd highest starting pitcher in the American league.  He'll help your fantasy team in at least 4 of the 5 categories, and can even strike a few batters out.  Ervin Santana is quickly moving up the ranks of the fantasy baseball world after his bounce-back season in 2008.  You can probably expect some slip in his 2009 season, but not much. Here's where ESPN lost me.  Whoever does the fantasy rankings must have dosed off while doing the starting pitchers...how else can you justify having Joe Saunders ranked 483rd overall?  Saunders might not be a top-tier fantasy pitcher, but he definitely should be ranked within the top 50 starting pitchers.  Saunders probably won't duplicate his 2008 numbers, but he's a good late round pick for your fantasy staff.  Jered Weaver is one of the players I expect to have a breakout season.  I projecting Weaver to have a sub-4.00 ERA with 14+ wins, a good WHIP and strikeout totals.  Pick him up late in the draft.  Adenhart and Escobar probably won't have any fantasy value.  I've heard Escobar is ahead of schedule in his shoulder rehab, so he might be worth a very late round pick if he continues to improve.  Adenhart should be avoided if he's the Angels' #5 starter as he's got the potential to hurt your ERA and WHIP without helping in any other category.

The Angels shouldn't see any drop-off from their closer position with the departure of Frankie Rodriquez and the addition of Brian Fuentes.  Fuentes has the potential to put up excellent numbers if the Angels continue to play close games and he stays healthy.  Count on 40+ saves with better than average ERA and WHIP, plus excellent strikeout numbers.  Arredondo and Shields will get few save opportunities, but each should help your fantasy team by providing plenty of good innings and strikeouts.

Regardless of the type of team you want to build, if you're in your league for fun or if you're "in it to win it", the Angels have players you should target early in your fantasy draft (Guerrero, Lackey and Fuentes) and they have players you should keep on eye on as late round steals (definitely Weaver, maybe Rivera and Morales). 

What this picture was supposed to be was the hit locations (that left the infield) for each of Adam Dunn's at bats last season and where the ball would have landed if it had been in Anaheim. The red triangles were Dunn's home runs from last season...and according to this picture, a couple might have left the stadium.  I originally thought I had messed up the graphing when I created this picture, but after trading emails with Graham Goldbeck, maybe I didn't.  By the way, this graph idea wasn't mine, it was Graham's with from his post on Beyond The Box Score.  Graham has a really good site that looks at the Athletics team and players in new and interesting ways...here's his site.  Plus, he was very helpful in providing the data for this messed up picture.  The hit coordinates are from the PitchFx data, so some human error could be the culprit in the stray data points - like the foul out about 40 rows back on the 3rd base side, and probably the foul outs on the 1st base side too.

Graham pointed out the deep home runs were possible:

Anyway, even if it is messed up, it's still kinda cool.  Thanks Graham!

I've mentioned before how much I like the website FanGraphs mainly because they provide so much information.  Some of it goes way over my head, but most of it a typical fan can figure out which leads to more knowledgeable fans...which is always a good thing.  While I was going through some player stats, I noticed FanGraphs provides 2009 season projections from three different sources; Bill James, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith (of Angels All The Way).  I've previously written about the Angels projected stats for next season, but those were based on just one set of projections.  I'm a staunch believer of the wisdom of crowds.  In other words, the more input you receive on a subject, the more likely its right.  Kind of like using the audience lifeline on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire".  Below are the projections for the Angels four starting pitchers for next season based on the input from all three sources.  But first, here are their totals from last season:
 

Before getting to the projections I wanted to point out a couple things that stand out to me when looking back on these numbers.  The first is how really good this group of pitchers were.  As a fantasy baseball geek, one of the earliest things I remember learning to looking at in evaluating pitchers was to see if their hits allowed was less than their innings pitched.  It was a quick way to see if the player was pitching at least adequately.  All four of these players had less hits than innings pitched.  Going out on a limb, I'd bet there hasn't been more than 4 or 5 teams in the last 10 season to have each of their four starting pitchers have less hits than IP.  There other thing I noticed was the amount of home runs John Lackey gave up.  He led the staff in HR allowed and yet he pitched the least amount of innings.  The 26 home runs Lackey gave up in 2008 were the most since 2003 when he allowed 31, but those 31 were over 204 IP.  Breaking it down by HR/IP, it looks like this:

His career number for HR/IP prior to 2008 was .093, which he almost doubled last season.  Lackey began 2008 on the disabled list with a strained forearm, but prior to that he's been pretty healthy.  One warning sign some people use to project injuries is the number of pitches a player has thrown over the last few seasons.  Before last season, Lackey had thrown over 3000 pitches for 5 straight season, but according to a study at Razzball that looks into pitchers' injuries, the number of pitches thrown doesn't have much of a correlation to injuries.  What their study found was the percentage of curveball/sliders a pitcher throws over the course of a season (more on that below).  Was Lackey feeling the effects of his forearm strain throughout 2008 or was it something else? 

From that pitchers study at Razzball, they created a list of 20 pitchers who are injury risk for 2009.  Ervin Santana is ranked 12th on their list mainly from his over-reliance on his slider which puts more strain on his elbow.

12. Ervin Santana
2008 Curve/Slider % - 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,526
Difference From 2007:  +917 (est. -414 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches - NO

Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008.  He's maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in '06 to 33% in '08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.

So that's two of the four Angels' starters that there's concern about.  Anyway, I sort of got off-track.  Here are the combined projections:

The projected totals have the Angels starters having 10 less wins, 6 more losses, and a slightly higher ERA.  One of things I found interesting was the only pitcher they projected to have more innings pitched in 2008 was Lackey.  What I take away from that is they're not too confident that Santana, Saunders, and Weaver can duplicate their 2008 seasons.  When I looked at it a little closer, I think the reason the projections for Saunders are worse than 2008 is because he held hitters to a BABIP of .267.  The league average for batting average of balls in play is right around .300.  The theory is a higher BABIP means the pitcher was "unlucky" and less suggests the pitcher was "lucky".  I'm not sure I really buy into that theory, but it's something to watch next season with Saunders.  The three projections actually have Weaver doing a bit better than last season based on ERA and his wins are the same.  I've written before that I think Weaver is on the same career track as Jake Peavy.  That might be optimistic, but I do think Weaver is still getting better and we have yet to see his best seasons.

My projections?  I'm far from an expert at predicting future performance, but that won't stop me from giving my thoughts.  I think Weaver will be the ace in 2009 winning 17 games and having a sub-4.00 ERA.  Santana won't do as well as he did last season, but he won't do as poorly has 2007.  The 12 wins he's projected to get above sound about right to me too, however he's going to miss a start or two due to fatigue or injury.  Same with Lackey.  I think this is going to be his worst season of his career, and a season where he's also going to miss time because of injury.  He'll see those 12 wins but he'll also have double-digit losses as well.  I think Joe Saunders is going to do fine.  I don't think he'll win 17 like last season, but he'll win more than the 12 projected, and have solid all-around stats.

The most important information I take away from this is the need for another starter.  Moseley, Adenhart, or one of the other rookie pitchers might be a cost-effective #5 starter, but I don't think the Angels have the depth within their organization to replace the season Jon Garland gave them in 2008.  But most of all, I don't think they have the depth to replace the innings if Lackey, Santana, Saunders, or Weaver can't duplicate their 2008 seasons.

Angels' Gm Tony Reagins has stated the following in regards to signing Manny Ramirez:

"That's probably not a likely scenario." - December 9, 2008

"Manny Ramirez will not play for the Angels in 2009, or beyond, for that matter." - December 23, 2009

"Manny will not be an Angel." - December 24, 2008

"We're going to give our kids an opportunity to play." - December 24, 2008

"It will not happen. We are not going to sign Manny Ramirez. End of story." - December 24, 2008

"We're perfectly comfortable with going to spring training with the club that we have." - January 14, 2009

"...there's not room for a Manny Ramirez." - January 14, 2009

"I follow it every day, I think the closer you get to spring training, players that are unsigned are going to get some offers. But, in our case, we're not really looking at adding anyone at this point." - January 28, 2009

"We're better served going the direction we took (not to sign Ramirez)" - February 4, 2009

So why won't the stories of Manny playing for the Angels in 2009 not die?  Because regardless of what Tony Reagins says, Ramirez in an Angels uniform makes too much sense.  One of Reagins' quotes is about giving the kids a chance to play.  Kids?  What kids?  If the Angels sign Ramirez, the only kid it'd effect is 28 year-old Reggie Willits, as he'd most likely start the season in 3A or on another team.  Kendry Morales' playing time won't be reduced, he's the everyday first baseman regardless if Manny is signed or not.  Is Reagins referring to Brandon Wood?  Only if the Angels are planning to play Chone Figgins in the outfield to open up a spot at third.  If the Angels were to sign Ramirez, the player most likely to be effected is Gary Mathews, Jr. who turns 35 during the 2009 season.  Hardly a kid.  And hardly the same impact player.

We all know the Ramirez has had two offers from the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The first was a 2-year / $45M deal made before Christmas that went unanswered from either Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, or Ramirez himself before being pulled off the table by Dodgers' owner Frank McCourt.  The second offer submitted earlier this month was a one-year deal for $25M.  This offer was rejected within hours after being received by Ramirez with the warning from Boras, "it's dangerous to play chicken".  There's been talk the Dodgers would be better served using the money it'd take to sign Ramirez and using it to sign Orlando Hudson ($8M), Adam Dunn ($8M) and Randy Wolf ($9M).  Those dollar figures are my estimates based on various sources familiar with the dropping values.  The Angels aren't in the same situation as the Dodgers.  Although they conceivably have the same money available, they don't need three players.  And according to Reagins, they don't need any, but he counting on Reggie Willits (and I'm not).  The Dodgers would probably be better served signing 3 lower impact players for the same money it'd take to get Manny, and the Angels could fit Ramirez into the corner outfield / DH rotation.

As the prices of this year's remaining free agents drop, and as other teams start scooping up the bargains, Manny being Manny in Anaheim will become more logical...if the price is right.  I don't know if it's a good thing or bad, but can you imagine the number of dreadlocked rally monkeys bouncing around Angels Stadium?  Or the sea of red do-rags?  If the 2009 season plays out as the "experts" predict, the Angels will be playing the wildcard Red Sox in the first round.  Is there another player an Angels' fan would want to see at the plate, in an Angels uniform at Fenway, than Manny Ramirez?