January 2009 Archives

Talking With The Angels Front Office...Sort Of

user-pic

I hate making phone calls.  When I was married to my first wife I used to call her and ask her to call people for me.  I'd get a long breathy sigh (and I'm sure an accompanying eye roll), but she'd usually make the call for me.  My current wife just gives me the sigh (and eye roll), so I've had to pull up my panties more often and make my own calls...sometimes (I still haven't made that doctors appointment).

Anyway, I recently sent emails to 3 people in the Angels' front office - Assistant GM Ken Forsch, Eddie Bane, Director of Scouting, and Abe Flores, Director of Player Development.  I sent the emails for a couple reasons; I wanted to see if I actually had the correct addresses, I was curious if anyone would respond, and I was interested in the answer to my question.  The question I sent was "What is it about a career minor league pitcher who have good, and sometimes great minor league seasons that doesn't translate into major league success.  I've noticed that specifically relief pitchers can have a few dominating seasons in AAA and never get an opportunity in the majors.  Is that because they are lacking a certain skill set?  Or they've never developed an "out pitch"?  Or are they just successful against the weaker minor league players and not the true prospects?  Or is it something else?" 

And guess what happened.  I received replies from each of these gentleman.  I don't know why I was surprised, the Angels are a classy organization and I've heard of other people getting responses and even phone calls from front office personnel, but I'm just some schmuck who writes (and rather poorly according to some comments) for a lowly blog that few have ever read.  Plus, I didn't send my question to three "staffers" or secretaries...excuse me, assistants.  They were sent to three people who have more important things to do - things like figuring out who's going to be the 5th starter, or analyzing other organizations for potential trade opportunities rather than responding to stupid questions.  Anyway, here's the problem my phobia ran into.  Mr. Flores' response to my email was, "Jim- Call me, Abe" and he enclosed his phone number.  Holy crap.  The Angels director of player development wants me to call him...on the phone.  Needles to say, his response to my question is not included in this article.  I apologize for being such a wimp, but the voices in my head won't let me pick up the phone.

Career Minor League Pitchers
I've written before about my fascination with minor league pitchers who seem to have major league stuff, but rarely get the opportunity to use that stuff with the big club. And if they do get a chance, what happened that they didn't stick.  How can a pitcher repeatedly put up good minor league numbers, sometimes dominating minor league numbers, and not get a chance to pitch in the majors?  In my previous posting about this subject, an acquaintance of mine who works as a major league scout gave me his opinion on the subject.  He said that some of the older pitchers who do really well at 3A take advantage of the weaker hitters in the league and lack the "out pitch" needed to succeed in the majors.  They don't have the fastball with movement, or the curveball they can throw for strikes, or good enough command of the strike zone to consistently get big league hitters out.  Ken Forsch said pretty much the same thing in his response to my email, "In the minor leagues, hitters tend to swing at more bad pitches.  Especially breaking balls in the dirt.  Good Major League hitters lay off that pitch and wait for a good count to hit in."  He also added, "Lack of major league stuff with good control at the minor league level.  Most cases a breaking ball they can get over when behind in the count.  The control plays a role at the Major League Level but if the fast ball without movement allows a hitter to sit on the breaking ball the pitcher has no chance."

Another factor in a career minor leaguer's path to the majors is opportunity at the big league level.  "One quick answer sometimes with these "career minor leaguers" is circumstances.  I believe we had a couple of pitchers on our Salt Lake club last year that could have helped some other teams.  I believe that some of the other teams should have taken a longer look at the Kasey Olenberger's etc that we had in Salt Lake.  Unfortunately for some of the guys having success in 3A and getting stuck behind a quality big league staff is poor luck.", replied Eddie Bane.  (Interestingly, Olenberger was recently released by the Angels).  Bane added, "The organization that you perform in also plays a major factor as it is really really hard to pitch in the big leagues for the Angels, Yankees or Red Sox.  That is just a fact of life.  You have to be better than a lot of really good pitchers to even get a shot in a prospect laden organization.  If you ask around with real baseball people they will acknowledge that these 3-4 systems are the ones that are really tough to advance in.  Just another "luck" or "hang with em" part of the game.  All in all you like to think that in the end it will even out and a guy stuck in Salt Lake or 3A with one of the other quality systems will get a chance, but as I said this is a tough racket and the major leagues are the best of the best and you have to be awfully good to even touch the Major Leagues."  If a pitcher is part of a very deep organization, his opportunity to move up can be blocked for several years.  After seven seasons in the minors and having not been placed on the 40-man roster, a player is eligible for minor league free agency.  After seven years, he may have already be tagged as a career minor leaguer mainly because of the organization he plays for, and not because of his pitching abilities.  This is a situation I've never thought of before, and one I can see happening.  If a pitcher is drafted out of college at the age of 21 or 22, by the time he is eligible for free agency, he's 29 years-old and too old to be thought of as a "prospect".

One other factor is timing.  Bane also has the theory that doing well at the onset of your career has an effect on if you'll be a major leaguer or minor leaguer, "The hardest level is from 3A to the Major Leagues by far.  When a player or pitcher does get the opportunity to pitch or play in the big leagues they do not have a limitless time to show their ability.  A bad month of games could relegate a pitcher back to 3A.  That is tough news, but it is really "big boy" baseball at the major league level.  At the big league level all that matters is your final numbers."  This is what I believe happened to one of the subjects of my earlier article, Jason Childers:

Signed as an amateur free agent by the Milwaukee Brewers in 1997.  Childers made his major league debut with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2006 at the age of 31 after having an impressive spring training.  The perceived problem with Childers is he doesn't throw hard, as his fastball tops out at 90 mph, and he pitches to contact relying on late movement to get outs.  However, his career minor league stats show he does a good job getting the strikeouts and has good command of the strike zone.  Childers has a .89 K/IP rate and strikes out almost 3 batters for every walk.  In 2005 at Triple-A Richmond, Childers led all Braves minor-leaguers with 16 saves and had a team-low 2.09 ERA in 38 outings and yet didn't get a chance with the big league club.  In a 2006 article from the St. Petersburg Times, Childers stated, "I think they're scared of my velocity.  If I got called up and struggled, maybe they'll feel like they'll look bad."  This was prophetic.  He struggled in his first 5 appearances that year with the Rays and was sent down at the end of April.  Never getting the chance to return.

Obviously, if Childers had been successful in those 5 appearances he would have stuck around longer.  "There are no more prospects at the big league level.  It is all and totally about results.  They can add another pitch or get better life on their fastball or better command, but the bottom line is that when given the chance to be a big leaguer they need to take advantage because their turn might not come around again.", Bane added.

Teams are always looking for the "next big thing".  A few seasons ago it was the moneyball philosophy exploiting the lack of understanding of the importance of on-base-percentage.  Currently it seems teams are focusing on the importance of team defense rather than just the pitchers' ability alone to reduce the number of runs scored.  Possibly one of the next things clubs will look into is the unexploited minor league players who are toiling at triple-A.  Players who may have the ability to succeed in the majors and who are more cost effective.  Let other teams spend $4.75M for the Justin Speiers in the league.  Pitchers whose low-leverage innings could be replaced by a player making the league minimum and pitching just as effectively (Jason Bulger, Shane Loux).  Oakland seems to have taken this approach with their organization.  Last season, after spending parts of 6 season in the minors, 28year-old Brad Ziegler was given the opportunity to show what he had.  All Ziegler did was break the major league record for innings pitched at the beginning of a career without giving up a run.

(Special thank you to the three gentleman for replying to my email.  Mr. Flores, I'll call you back once I complete treatment).

The Perfect Draft

user-pic

This was not my idea.  While cruising around the internet looking for something interesting, I found this intriguing article by Joe Posnanski about having the perfect draft.  It's a "what-might-have-been" article about the Kansas City Royals and their 1999 draft and what kind of team they'd have if their club had used their pick a bit more wisely.  Please read the article, it's very good (as is all of his writing).  In the opening sentence he writes that you can do this with any team, so I did.  And of course I picked the Angels, but not the 1999 draft.  Instead I went with the 2000 draft mainly because of how bad it was for the Angels.  Of the first 15 picks made by the Halos, 2 players have spent time in the major leagues, Chris Bootcheck and Bobby Jenks.

I've written before about how hard it is to predict major league players from high school and college draft eligible players.  From the years 1995 to 2005, the Oakland A's had the highest percentage of draft picks play in the major leagues and that percentage was a whooping 15.6%.  Cleveland had the worst draft record with just 7.9% of their picks making to the big leagues (by the way, the Angels had a 9.6% rate).  There was a lot written about the home-grown talent of the Phillies and the Rays during the World Series, but the Angels actually had more home-grown players on their roster last season, so apparently they've done well drafting and signing players who can help them at the upper levels:

Team Drafted/Signed Other Org. Pct.
Angels 28 13 68%
Boston 15 32 32%
Tampa 19 27 41%
Chicago White Sox 10 29 26%
Philadelphia 16 24 40%
Los Angeles 23 23 50%
Chicago Cubs 17 25 40%
Milwaukee 17 27 39%

Average

145 200 42%

Here's the 2000 draft if it were perfect:

Angels first pick (10th overall): LHP Joe Torres
Could have been: 2B Chase Utley (15th overall)

Comment:  The Angels took a high school pitcher from Florida with their first pick in the draft, the Phillies took a 2B from UCLA five picks later.  Neither are currently with the Angels.

Angels supplemental pick (20th overall):  RHP Chris Bootcheck
Could have been:  RHP Adam Wainwright (29th overall)

Angels 2nd round pick (50th overall): C Jared Abruzzo
Could have been:  OF Grady Sizemore (75th overall)

Comment: Mmmmm Grady Sizemore (insert Homer Simpson gurgling sound)

Angels 3rd round pick (80th overall):  SS Tommy Murphy
Could have been:  RHP Chris Young (89th overall)

Angels 4th round pick (110th overall): RHP Chuck Thames
Could have been:  3B Garrett Atkins (137th overall)

Comment:  There had previously been rumor that the Angels were looking into trading for Atkins, they could have just drafted him 9 years ago.

Angels 5th round pick (140th overall):  RHP Bobby Jenks
Could have been:  RHP Bobby Jenks

Comment:  They got this one right...at least until they waived him following the 2004 season.

Angels 6th round pick (170th overall):  RHP Brandon O'Neal
Could have been:  RHP Taylor Buchholz (175th overall)

Angels 7th round pick (200th overall):  SS Aaron Hill
Could have been: RHP Dontrelle Willis (223rd overall)

Comment:  Okay, the last Angels didn't miss too much with those last two picks, except Buchholz is looking to be a very good bullpen guy.

Angels 8th round pick (230th overall): LHP Adam Pace
Could have been:  RHP Brandon Webb (249th overall)

Angels 9th round pick (260th overall):  OF Jason Coulie
Could have been:  3B Edwin Encarnacion (274th overall)

Angels 10th round pick (290th overall):  RHP Matt Hensley
Could have been: 1B Brad Hawpe (317th overall)

Angels 11th round pick (320th overall):  LHP Garrett Patterson
Could have been: OF Corey Hart (321st overall)

Comment:  There were no significant players (so far) selected in the 12th and 13th rounds, however the following players were selected later in the draft, Rich Harden (510th overall), Jason Bay (645th overall), Nate McLouth (749th overall), Chad Cordero (769th overall), Ian Kinsler (879th overall), Adam LaRoche (880th overall), and Russ Martin (1035th overall).

Angels 14th round pick (410th overall): OF Kevin Jenkins
Could have been: OF Ryan Church (426th overall)

Angels 15th round pick (440th overall): LHP Geoffrey Smart
Could have been: RHP James Shields (466th overall)

Angels 16th round pick (470th overall): SS John Raburn
Could have been: SS Josh Willingham (491st overall)

Angels 17th round pick (500th overall): C Mike Napoli
Could have been: C Mike Napoli

Comments:  There!  It only took 500 picks to get a player who's contributing on the major league roster.

So, when it's all added up...after 50 rounds, the Angels have one player on their roster who's making a difference.  Here's what the line-up could have looked like:

C - Mike Napoli
1B - Adam LaRoche
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Garrett Atkins
SS - Brandon Wood
LF - Corey Hart
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Valdimir Guerrero

SP- John Lackey
SP - Brandon Webb
SP - Ervin Santana
SP - Joe Saunders
SP - Cliff Lee

That's a pretty good line-up.  As Mr. Posnanski writes-

"One draft. Of course, no team gets all the draft picks right. No team gets half the draft picks right, or one-third, or one-quarter or even one out of every twenty right. But it's possible...If you are right on the draft, really right, you can beat every team out there no matter how many billion they might spend."

Obviously, this is a fantasyland scenario as no team can get every pick in every round right.  And I'm not trying to pick on the Angels since every team has had a poor draft, but if the Angels had been right more than once in the 2000 draft, we'd be talking more about dynasty than what might have been.

 

Been Busy, Been Cold

user-pic

Wow, it's been a week since my last post?  Time sure flies when you're freezing your ass off (from where I'm sitting I can look out our front window and see the thermometer on the bank...it says "-18°".  And that's without the wind-chill factor).  Actually I've been sidetracked by two other projects, plus there really hasn't been much Angels news to comment on.  I never intended to post things on this blog just for the sake of posting something.  If I felt I had nothing to comment on then I wouldn't.  There are many, and I mean MANY blogs out there that post articles without content (kind of like this one if I keep this up).  It's like that guy at a party who can't close their mouth, "Help I'm talking and I can't shut up".  I just don't want to be one of those blogs, I want people who come here to read something actually get something to read and not just a re-hash of other blogs/websites/newspapers/etc.

Angel Videos
As I wrote above, I've been working on two other projects.  The first is another Angels/Downfall video.  If you don't know what I mean, here are some links to previous videos in the series: Angels Front Office Part One, Part Two and Part Three.  I had been working on another video last month, but since I'm not as creative as I'd like to be...or apparently most people, I hit a dry spell and left it alone.  Over at Halos Heaven, someone made a fanpost regarding the videos and asked who did them and why not make another.  So I went back and pieced together another short one.  Here it is:
 

 

Another Website
The other project I've been working on is another website.  I like this blog network that's been set up here at Blogs by Fans, but I have zero freedom to do anything other than post articles.  I can't change how the page looks by changing themes, or add links, or even change what color the background is without asking the site administrator if he can do it for me.  I've created a couple other sites and found it was fun.  I wanted to add more to this site that dealt with Angels history and possibly some minor league stuff, but since I can't, I decided to create a different site.  A site that tracks closers and bullpen usage.  The site is:  Who's The Closer.  If you visit this site you'll notice, besides the fact its far from a "professional" site, that it's still being put together.  There's content there, but I wanted to get it up right away and add content as I go.  The site is mainly targeted to fantasy baseball team owners looking for information on team's bullpen situations and save opportunities.  If you're into this sort of thing please give the site a visit and let me know what you think.

Red Sox Signings
You gotta give the Red Sox some props.  I know it's hard to do mainly because...well, because they're the Red Sox, but I admire the way they think.  Last week they went out and signed four free agents to incentive laden deals.  The four players, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, and Brad Penny were signed for a total of $12.5M for next year.  Obviously, as with all incentive deals, if the player has a good season he gets paid more, but then the team is also getting more.  I like this.  I like this a lot.  Rather than going out and spending $12.5M on one player, the Sox get four.  I admit there's a risk that all four won't be on the roster for any great length of time, as all are returning from one sort of injury or another, but if only one player bounces back and has the season they are capabale of when healthy, the gamble pays off.   From an Angels point of view, what was wrong with Rocco Baldelli?  Suppose, at worst-case, he's only able to play 2 or 3 games a week.  For $.5M that's a deal, especially if he's replacing the uninspiring Reggie Willits, or Rob Quinlan.  IF Baldelli breaks down shortly after the season starts and is not seen again during the season, are we led to believe there's not at least 50 players playing in triple-A who can't put up the numbers (or better) than Willits or Quinlan are capable of?  In a recent interview with the Daily Pilot, Angels' GM Tony Reagins stated the Halos were going with their young players.  I agree with that, as long as he's talking about Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales.  Willits and Quinlan aren't young players the Angels should be giving time to, they are role players at best who can be easily replaced.  Why not use one of their roster spots for a player that has potential to make an impact?  One who possibly has some upside?  Currently, the Angels need a #5 starter.  Sure, they can go with Dustin Moseley, or one of the rookie guys, but why not take a chance on a pitcher who could actually do better than Moseley?  A player like Kris Benson or Mark Mulder.  Either of these pitchers could be signed cheap, and if healthy, could possibly provide a much larger return than Dustin Moseley.  If the reason the Angels stick with players like Willits, Quinlan and Moseley is out of loyalty, I admire that.  But at some point the organization needs to be loyal to its fans by putting the best team on the field.

No Lefties? No Problems.

user-pic

Of the 132 team who have made the play-offs in the last twenty years, none of them have done it without at least one left-handed hitter.  In fact, of those 132 teams, only 2 teams have had just one left-hander as the average number of lefties on a play-off team has been about 5.  There have only been seven teams (out of 40) who have had less than 4 left-handed batters make it to the World Series.  Why do I bring this up?  As of right now, the Angels do not have a left-handed batter on their major league roster.  I found this out a couple weeks ago while I was looking into Angels' split stats and noticed that the only two lefty bats last season are now gone (Garret Anderson and Casey Kotchman).  Earlier this week, I read Orange County Register's Earl Bloom's blog post about this subject here: Who's Left? Angels Seem Unbalanced.  This put me on a quest to find out if there's any significance to lefty/righty/switch hitters on play-off teams.  I've mentioned before that I'm not a mathemagician (yes, that's spelled right...inside joke) when it comes to analyzing stats, all I have that is useful towards the accurate analysis is common-sense.  I get that if A=B and B=C, then A=C.  But I also get that More Money = Better Player and Better Players = More Wins, but More Money ≠ More Wins (see Yankees).  I went back over the last twenty seasons and listed the amount of left-handed and switch hitting players (min 50 AB) each play-off team had on their rosters.  I also listed the league rank each team had for On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) against both left and right-handed pitchers.

  • On average, the play-off team with the worst OPS against right-handed pitching won the World Series.

    I have no idea why this is, but the winning teams OPS rank was an average of 10.05 during the regular season against right-handed pitchers.  The teams who lost in the WS had an average rank of 9.50, while all play-off teams had an average rank of 9.47.  Another thing I found interesting was the teams who lost in the league division series had the best OPS average ranking (9.18) against right-handed pitchers of all play-off teams.  In other words, the team who did the worst against right-handed pitchers did better in the play-offs.
     
  • The team who won the WS had the best average OPS ranking against left-handed pitchers of any play-off team.

    The eventual WS winner averaged a 9.65 regular season ranking against southpaws, while the losers had an average ranking of 10.90.  All of the play-off teams had an average rank of 10.58. 

    So combined with the findings above, the eventual World Series winner was the best play-off team against left-handed pitching and the worst play-off team against right-handed pitching.  I find this very unusual considering a team has roughly 3 times more plate appearances against right-handed pitching then they do against left-handed pitchers, yet the play-off team who does worse against righties goes further and wins more championships.
     
  • Teams who won the WS had the lowest average number of left-handed hitters and the highest average number of switch-hitters (min 50 AB during the regular season) than the other play-off teams.

    World Series winners averaged 4.50 left-handed hitters and 2.95 switch-hitters compared to 5.10 lefty and 2.60 switch-hitters for the team who lost.  This is consistent with the division series too, as the team who won also had a lower average number of left-handed hitters and more switch-hitters.  However, in 2008, the two teams with the most left-handed hitters faced each other in the Series (Tampa Bay had 10 and Philadelphia was tied with Boston with 7 lefties).

This study doesn't take in to account any teams' pitching stats.  So it's very possible a weak hitting team with lights-out pitching can win the World Series.  An example of this is the 1995 Atlanta Braves who won the World Series after leading the major leagues with a team ERA of 3.44, and in spite of finishing 21st in the major leagues in runs scored (the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians in the World Series even though the Indians scored almost 200 more runs than the Braves during the regular season).  What does this mean for the Angels and their lack of left-handed hitting?  I don't think it means anything.  Although the Angels lack a lefty hitter, they do have 7 switch-hitters who saw time on their major league roster last season.  Of those 7, four saw at least 290 at-bats, with Kendry Morales looking to get significantly more playing time in 2009.  Also in the Angels favor is the signing of Brian Fuentes.  Fuentes was the best left-handed free agent reliever available, able to shutdown either left-handed or right-handed hitters.  The way I see it, if the typical World Series winner is the best team against left-handed pitchers, having the best left-handed pitching would be the way to win.  Especially if you're a team like the Angels who don't look to be one of the top hitting clubs.

An Old Bill James Book

user-pic

The other day I was going through some boxes of books, looking for some of my old Bill James Abstracts.  While digging through the boxes, I found This Time Let's Not Eat The Bones, a "best of" the Bill James Abstracts without the numbers.  Although this book, and the books it references, are over 20 years old, the theories James proposes and the conclusions he come to with are just as relevant today.  I found some interesting stuff -- for example, I found on of my old paycheck stubs that had been used as a bookmark.  The stub was dated 5-21-89 and showed that I was making more in 1989 than I am in 2009.  Depressing.  Anyway, I also found:

  • Strikeouts, Effects On Runs Scored

    "Strikeouts have a negligible effect on runs scored; the belief that a strikeout is an especially negative out because it freezes base runners in essentially baseles insofar as it applies to major league baseball...The reason for this is that while strikeouts don't advance runners, they also don't lead to double plays.  When a ball is put in play but an our results, the negative side effects (the runs lost because of double plays) balance the positive side-effects (that extra runs can result because of base runners' advancement)."

    "A study on pages 288-89 of the 1986 Baseball Abstract suggested that there was a loss of about one run for a team for each hundred strikeouts (as contrasted to other outs).  That means, as a frame of reference, that Dave Kingman probably cost his team in his career about eight runs by his strikeouots, if he is compared to a player of the same batting average and other batting statistics but who struck out only a normal amount."


    I thought this was interesting because lately there have been comments made about Adam Dunn and his excessive amount of strike outs.  When comparing Kingman and Dunn the only consistent hitting trait they have is power.  Kingman's career OBP is a meager .302, while having 6 seasons with an OBP of under .300.  I doubt if Kingman played today, he'd last 16 season as he did in the 70's and 80's.  I wish I had the actual formula that James uses to calculate the effect of strikeouts, but just by going on his written comments, Dunn's strikeout rate costs his team about 2 runs a season.  Which I think is greatly offset by the fact he gets on base almost 40% of the time.  I'm not advocating the Angels go out and sign Dunn, but I am one who feels his hitting ability is under-valued.
     
  • Free Agent, Impact On Team Signing

    "A study on pages 244-46 of the 1986 Baseball Abstract examined the impact if signing or losing a major league free agent on the clubs fortunes.  After drawing up a list of the major free agent movements of the years 1974-84, I tracked what happened to four teams: the team which lost the player, the team which signed him, the team whose record over the previous two years was most similar to the team which lost him, and the team with the record most similar to the team which signed him."
    "The study showed that the teams signing free agents gained no advantage at all in the first year following, but gained a small advantage over a period of years - a matter of two or three games a year.  The teams losing free agents were essentially unaffected by the loss unless they sustained a series of free agent losses, in which case they were usually devastated by the losses."

    I wonder if this study were run today if the results would be the same as teams are more aware of player's abilities based on advanced statistics (the Moneyball effect) and how this would effect which free agents to sign.  What I mean is, let's go back to Dave Kingman and his free agency.  In 1984, the Oakland Athletics signed Kingman to a free agent contract which paid him $850,000.  This, coming after a season in 1983 with the Mets that saw him hit 13 HR while batting .198 and an OBP of .265.  Kingman lasted three seasons in Oakland, hitting exactly 100 HR and driving in a little over 300 runs, but would he have been given an opportunity if he were playing in this era of OBP-importance?  And if not, how would that effect the study?  This might be something to look into a bit more and it might be about the right time of year to fill with a "study".
     
  • The Amateur Draft

    I thought this was interesting because the Angels have picked up a few extra draft picks in this year's draft due to losing K-Rod, Teixeira and Garland, and the loss of their 33rd pick with the signing of Brian Fuentes.  Basically, the Angels have about 5 picks in the top 50.  What can they expect to get with those picks?  Here's what Bill James wrote regarding the amateur draft:

    "What is the chance that a number one draft pick will turn out to be a superstar?  The draft usually produces one superstar somewhere among the top fifty picks.  The chance of getting that player with a number one draft pick is about one in eighteen.  The chance of getting a superstar with a number ten draft pick is about one in thirty.  The chance of getting a superstar with a number 50 pick is about one in 130.  What is the chance of getting a star player?  With the first pick, about one in five.  With the tenth pick, about one in nine.  With the fiftieth pick, about one in sixty.  What is the chance of getting at least a good ballplayer?  With the first pick, a little better than 50 percent.  With the tenth pick, about 1 in 3.  With the fiftieth pick, about 7 percent."

    The Angels do not have a top 10 pick next draft, their first picks will be back-to-back at 25 and 26 thanks to the two New York ball clubs.  With 5 picks in the top fifty, the Angels can expect to have at least a 30% chance of getting one player who is "good" (if I figured it out right), and a 5 in 130 chance of landing a superstar.  In my opinion, based on this information, too much importance is given to the loss or gain of a draft pick.  It's almost like someone giving you a lottery ticket and hoping to win at least something, something that makes an impact.  Something that's more likely not to pay off.  While I understand the financial benefits of drafting and developing a star player, I think I'd rather sign Brian Fuentes than hope the 33rd pick has an impact on the team.  A pick that has a little better than 1 on 60 chance of becoming a star player.

 

Off The Radar Trade Thoughts

user-pic

Angels' GM Tony Reagins has stated that the club is not persuing free agent hitters Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell.  It sounds like the team is going to head into the 2009 season with the offense it has today, with the only free agent acquisition being relief pitcher Brian Fuentes.

There are many places to read about possible Angels trades, and many of them have the same trade talks involving the same players.  I wanted to look at a few players that haven't been mentioned on the Angels' trade radar, or have been mentioned, but not to the extent of Jake Peavy.  Be warned however, as I'm sometimes stumped by deals teams are able to pull off and I have no idea what it takes to make real-life trades...so please let me know if I'm way off base or if you have a better deal. 

My thoughts on the state of the Angels' roster are the Angels' batting order is predominately right-handed.  Although they do have 7 switch-hitters on their major league roster, they have no left-handed hitters.  So if I were the Angels GM I'd be looking to acquire a left-handed or switch-hitting corner OF or corner infielder, and/or a #5 starter.  Here are the players I'd be kicking the tires on...in no particular order:

Orioles
Aubrey Huff ($8M - 2009) - In 2008, Huff had his best season since 2003 when he hit 32 HR and batted .304 primarily being used as the Orioles DH.  Huff is 32-years old and in the walk year of his contract which calls for a reasonable salary of $8M.  An average defender at third and first base, Huff also is capable of playing RF, but is below average in the outfield.  Proposed deal:  Dustin Moseley for Aubrey Huff and cash.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Huff 33 533 72 151 33 2 23 83 3 48 81 .283 .343 .482

 

Cubs
Rich Harden ($7M - 2009) - The Cubs have been rumored to covet Chone Figgins.  Why not deal Figgins, who is also in his walk year, for the oft-injured Harden?  Harden could fill the #5 rotation spot vacated by the departure of Jon Garland, while trading Figgins would open up third base for Brandon Wood.  Proposed deal: Chone Figgins for Rich Harden.

Projected Age W L IP H ER SO BB ERA
Harden 28 8 4 134 102 43 146 56 2.99

 

Astros
Lance Berkman ($29M - 2010 NTC) - Berkman would be my primary trade target as he'd fill the hole left by Mark Teixeira.  Although Berkman is 4 years older than Teixeira, he hits for more power (career slugging pct of .560 vs .541), gets on base more often (OBP .413 vs .378), and he can steal a base (18 last season).  Plus, Berkman is a very good fielding first baseman.  It's unclear if the Astros are in a rebuilding mode or if they think they can compete in 2009.  Last season they made a deadline deal for Randy Wolf while they were 12 games behind (and tied for last in the NL Central), so it's hard to figure out what they're doing.  If the Astros would deal Berkman, and he'd be willing to waive his no trade clause, I'd propose:  Brandon Wood, Jeff Mathis and Nick Adenhart for Lance Berkman.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Berkman 33 579 104 171 39 2 33 113 11 109 119 .295 .407 .541

 

Yankees
Johnny Damon ($13M - 2009) - The pluses for Damon are he bats left-handed, he has the ability got on base (OBP .375 in 2008), can lead-off in the event Figgins is dealt, can play a slightly above average leftfield, and is in his walk year.  If the Angels don't re-sign him after 2009, which they probably wouldn't, there's the opportunity of gaining 2 draft picks when he signs elsewhere.  The negative thing about Damon is his age as he turned 35 last month.  Proposed deal: Justin Speier for Johnny Damon.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Damon 36 556 96 156 29 3 14 65 22 62 82 .281 .353 .419

 

Nick Swisher ($21M - 2011) - To me, Nick Swisher is "Adam Dunn-lite".  You can expect Swisher to hit about half as many HR as Dunn, get on base around the same rate, and have almost the same batting average.  Swisher is a switch-hitter who can adequately play all 3 outfield positions and first base.  Proposed deal: Two mid-grade prospects for Nick Swisher.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Swisher 29 463 78 111 27 1 23 71 2 80 122 .240 .352 .451

 

Rockies
Todd Helton ($52.3M - 2011 NTC) - I'm going out on a limb with this one, as Helton had season ending back surgery during 2008 and prior to that, his season wasn't anything to be too thrilled with.  Although Helton's days of hitting 30+ home runs are gone, he does get on base at a good rate and plays an above average defensive first base (pre-surgery).  However, Helton will turn 36 during the 2009 season, will earn an average of over $17M the next 3 years and has a full no trade clause.  Proposed deal:  Gary Matthew Jr. (if he'd waive his no trade clause) for Todd Helton; or Justin Speier for Todd Helton and cash.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Helton 36 476 79 145 36 1 17 74 2 93 73 .305 .418 .492

 

Pirates
Adam LaRoche (Arbitration Eligible) - Left-handed hitting LaRoche is an above average defender at first base with a career OPS+ of 114.  LaRoche made $5M last season and will probably see an increase for 2009 after arbitration causing the salary-cutting Pirates to look to deal.  The Pirate minor league system ranks near the bottom and they may be willing to take a couple mid-level prospects in exchange for LaRoche.  Proposed deal:  Tyler Chatwood and Jose Perez for Adam LaRoche.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
LaRoche 30 551 76 149 40 1 26 91 1 60 135 .270 .342 .488

 

Cardinals
Rick Ankiel (Arbitration Eligible) - Ankiel, who is his walk year entering 2009, can play all three outfield positions, although he doesn't play them very well.  His 2008 season was hampered by to what was believed to be an abdominal strain, but was diagnosed as a sports hernia ending his season in early September.  The Cardinals were rumored to be willing to deal Ankiel for some pitching from the Braves or Yankees earlier this off-season.  Proposed deal: Dustin Moseley for Rick Ankiel.

Projected Age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Ankiel 30 502 77 132 24 2 31 96 3 43 110 .263 .321 .504

 

These players, as I wrote above, are way off the Angels' radar.  But that was the point of this article.  I was looking at players who were possibly available, at a reasonable cost in players, prospects, or salary and could help the club.  Let me know what you think, or if you have any thoughts on possible other players who might be available.




Blogs In The Network


Warning: include() [function.include]: http:// wrapper is disabled in the server configuration by allow_url_include=0 in /nfs/c01/h09/mnt/13075/domains/thehaloislit.com/html/2009/01/index.php on line 973

Warning: include(http://www.blogsbyfans.com/networkul.php) [function.include]: failed to open stream: no suitable wrapper could be found in /nfs/c01/h09/mnt/13075/domains/thehaloislit.com/html/2009/01/index.php on line 973

Warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening 'http://www.blogsbyfans.com/networkul.php' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/php-5.3.27/share/pear') in /nfs/c01/h09/mnt/13075/domains/thehaloislit.com/html/2009/01/index.php on line 973