October 2008 Archives

The Adjustable Brandon Wood

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Since hitting 43 home runs and 51 doubles at Single-A Rancho Cucamanga in 2005, Angels fans have been waiting for the day Brandon Wood becomes a fixture in the Halo infield.  During the first half of 2008, Wood spent six weeks with the Angels, hitting a weak .125 in 64 at-bats, before getting sent down to Triple-A Salt Lake.  While he was down in the minors, I had read that Wood had worked on his swing in order to make improvements in making better contact and driving the ball.  Wood has always had good power, but it was his inability to make consistent contact that put a big question mark over his major league career. 

brandon-wood.gifAs shown in this video from 2005 (from calleaguers.com), Wood's starts his swing with his hands above his shoulders. While in the minors during the middle portion of the 2008 season, a slight adjustment was made to Wood's swing.  This small adjustment of lowering his hands to place them on the same plain as his swing provided Wood some positive results.

 

 

 

 

wood23.gifIn this video from August of 2008, Wood's hands start lower and go straight forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WoodAB1.gifHere's another view from April of 2008.  As you can see, as the ball has already left the pitcher's hand, Wood drops his hands and then sarts his swing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

woodAB2.gifAnd here in August of 2008, with his hands on the same plain as his swing path, Wood has a shorter path to the ball giving him more time for pitch recognition and location.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One last look at before and after:
Wood5.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not a hitting coach, but it seems like this small adjustment made a difference.  Here are Wood's split stats from 2008:

  AB H HR BB SO AVG SLG OBP
1st Half 64 8 1 2 21 .125 .188 .352
2nd Half 86 22 4 2 22 .256 .270 .430

Not great, but it is a big improvement.  He reduced his strikeout frequency from once in 3 at-bats to once in 4 at-bats. I'm predicting an Evan Longoria season from Wood in 2009, in the range of .260 -.270 and 25 - 30 home runs, which would be great from the shortstop position.

Organizational Efficientcy - Part 2

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Part one of this article covered some basic notions on how a baseball team is driven by revenue and a team's ability to efficiently use its resources to maximize profit.  As I noted in part one, one of the factors that drives attendance is the team's ability to win.  Here are the teams ranked in order of wins over the last 5 years:

NY Yankees 476   Toronto 403
LA Angels 470   Texas 402
Boston 470   Detroit 400
St. Louis 452   Florida 399
Philadelphia 440   Milwaukee 396
Minnesota 438   San Francisco 385
Chicago Sox 433   Arizona 376
NY Mets 428   Colorado 375
Cleveland 428   Cincinnati 375
Oakland 423   Tampa Bay 361
Houston 422   Seattle 359
Atlanta 421   Baltimore 359
LA Dodgers 418   Washington 351
Chicago Cubs 416   Pittsburgh 341
San Diego 409   Kansas City 320

To win games a team has to field a team of good players.  How does a team get good players?  By either buying them or developing them. 

NY Yankees $985,884,468   Toronto $347,568,200
Boston $647,319,698   San Diego $320,360,491
NY Mets $552,076,793   Texas $315,159,080
LA Angels $530,199,655   Cincinnati $312,440,027
LA Dodgers $501,431,248   Arizona $310,064,400
Chicago Cubs $490,033,597   Oakland $304,427,574
Seattle $481,357,316   Minnesota $301,539,272
Chicago Sox $473,002,332   Colorado $277,912,667
Philadelphia $464,712,593   Milwaukee $276,955,665
Atlanta $456,453,194   Cleveland $272,496,633
St. Louis $454,137,809   Kansas City $257,196,000
Detroit $431,402,431   Washington $245,230,500
San Francisco $429,088,641   Pittsburgh $204,306,285
Houston $421,416,917   Florida $169,868,876
Baltimore $358,874,302   Tampa Bay $162,522,798

Over the last five years, the Yankees have spent almost a billion dollars on payroll.  Yeah, that's a "b" as in BILLION.  Six times the amount their inter-division rival Tampa Bay Rays have spent.  Or almost as much as the 5 lower payroll teams combined.  As seen below, the Yankees spent over $2 million dollars for each of their wins.

Bang for the buck, or how much each win costs a team.  Here's a better article on payroll efficiency at the bizofbaseball that does a better job of explaining how well a team has done with the amount of money spent on payroll.  One of the facts that I've left out of my numbers is the assumption that a team will win at least a certain number of games even when fielding a triple-A team at the major league level.  My numbers just reflect the money spent divided by wins and doesn't factor in the level of talent that money was spent on.

Florida $425,737   Houston $998,618
Tampa Bay $450,202   Baltimore $999,650
Pittsburgh $599,139   St. Louis $1,004,730
Cleveland $636,674   Philadelphia $1,056,165
Minnesota $688,446   Detroit $1,078,506
Washington $698,662   Atlanta $1,084,212
Milwaukee $699,383   Chicago Sox $1,092,384
Oakland $719,687   San Francisco $1,114,516
Colorado $741,100   LA Angels $1,128,084
San Diego $783,277   Chicago Cubs $1,177,965
Texas $783,978   LA Dodgers $1,199,596
Kansas City $803,738   NY Mets $1,289,899
Arizona $824,639   Seattle $1,340,828
Cincinnati $833,173   Boston $1,377,276
Toronto $862,452   NY Yankees $2,071,186

Draft efficiency is the percentage of players drafted who make it to the major leagues.  I think the interesting question to ask here is; do teams with less money to spend on payroll promote player from the minors more quickly?  And of those players promoted, would they have been in the majors on a team with a higher payroll?  What I mean is, Oakland has the highest number of their draft picks reach the major leagues.  Does that mean they draft the best players, or are minor leaguers promoted due to the need to have inexpensive talent to fill their major league roster?

Oakland 15.6%   San Diego 10.2%
St. Louis 12.0%   Houston 10.2%
Boston 12.0%   Colorado 9.7%
Arizona 11.5%   LA Angels 9.6%
Texas 11.5%   Toronto 9.5%
San Francisco 11.3%   Detroit 9.4%
Kansas City 11.1%   NY Mets 9.4%
Baltimore 11.0%   Seattle 9.3%
Tampa Bay 10.8%   Philadelphia 8.9%
Minnesota 10.6%   LA Dodgers 8.9%
Chicago Sox 10.6%   Cincinnati 8.9%
Washington 10.6%   Florida 8.8%
Atlanta 10.5%   NY Yankees 8.7%
Chicago Cubs 10.5%   Milwaukee 8.1%
Pittsburgh 10.3%   Cleveland 7.9%

When a team is successful in the draft, it allows them more flexibility in roster composition.  If they have the ability to have a higher payroll, major league ready players can be used in trades to acquire higher cost, and possibly better talent at the major league level.  Or if the are a lower payroll level team, the inexpensive players allow a team to field a competitive, or somewhat competitive team inexpensively.  I think one of the reasons for Boston's recent success is their ability to draft good players while having one of the highest payrolls in baseball.  The use of their top prospects in the majors such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon, while trading prospects like Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell allows them to get them most from their payroll investment.

So, which team is the most efficient?  The formula I used to determine the numbers below is ranking each team in the following categories: draft efficiency, payroll efficiency, wins, and attendance.  According to my assumptions and low-level mathematical calculations, I think the St. Louis Cardinals do the best job at running their team and the Seattle Mariners do the worst.  And that sounds about right.  St. Louis has fielded a competitive team over the last 5 years (3rd most wins) while spending slightly above average on payroll, they ranked 3rd over the same period of time in total attendance, and ranked 2nd in the percentage of players drafted who make it to the major leagues.  The Mariners on the other hand were in the top 10 in money spent on payroll while finishing in the bottom 5 in wins.  2008 wasn't a good year for Seattle fans, as the Mariners spent over $100 million to lose 101 games.  Minnesota finished second in the rankings based on their ability to produce wins on a limited payroll, and Oakland was able to tie Boston for third although they are completely different types of organizations in regards to payroll and attendance. 

St. Louis 27   NY Mets 63
Minnesota 44   Tampa Bay 66
Oakland 45   Cleveland 66
Boston 45   LA Dodgers 66
LA Angels 49   Baltimore 70
Texas 50   Washington 71
San Diego 52   Colorado 71
Houston 53   Milwaukee 71
Chicago Sox 55   Toronto 72
Philadelphia 56   Detroit 72
San Francisco 57   Pittsburgh 74
Arizona 58   Florida 76
Chicago Cubs 59   Kansas City 77
Atlanta 60   Cincinnati 86
NY Yankees 60   Seattle 89

I don't know if these numbers prove anything or if there's any relevance between drafting and payroll efficiency, and how they impact revenue.  I did think the numbers I found were interesting and worth sharing.

A Few 2008 Highlights - Video

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Organizational Efficientcy - Part 1

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I've been reading a lot recently about the Tampa Bay Rays, and how most of their success is based on their "home-grown" talent.  This got me thinking about how well the Angels did in composing their team from within their own organization.  Of the 41 players who made an appearance in an Angels' game in 2008, twenty-eight were either drafted or signed as an amateur free agent by the Halos.  In other words, 68% of the players have never played for another team or within another team's organization.  Tampa Bay on the other hand had 46 players appear in a Rays game, of those 46, nineteen were home-grown players (41%).  Looking into this a little deeper, and at how the other playoff teams were constructed, I came up with these figures:

Team Drafted/Signed Other Org. Pct.
Angels 28 13 68%
Boston 15 32 32%
Tampa 19 27 41%
Chicago White Sox 10 29 26%
Philadelphia 16 24 40%
Los Angeles 23 23 50%
Chicago Cubs 17 25 40%
Milwaukee 17 27 39%

Average

145 200 42%

As noted in his daily ESPN blog, Buster Olney mentions that not only had the Rays done a good job with players from within their organization, but the Phillies have done just as well.  Which is true as the above numbers suggest.  When looking at those numbers, I was kind of surprised by the fact that the Dodgers were so high on the list.  When making the assumption that smaller market teams would use more players from within their organizations because they are cheaper, the Dodgers ranking made me look at this a bit deeper and led to the question of Organizational Efficiency.  How efficient were teams using their resources for success?

Baseball teams are in the business to make money.  This isn't a big revelation.  Baseball is a business who's sole purpose is to make the team's owners money.  Regardless of what an owner says about winning, civic pride, or championships, their bottom line is revenue and profit.  I'm going to make some general assumptions, so please bare with me as I'm not a mathematical genius, or business tycoon.  A team's revenue is based primarily on attendance.  The more butts in the seats the more cash in the pocket.  In order to have good attendance, a winning product usually has to be put on the market...a winning team.  To have a winning team, an organization typically has a higher payroll or has the resources from within the organization to provide better talent than the other teams.

Draft success/Payroll → Winning Team → Attendance → Revenue

Nothing groundbreaking there.  As I, or anyone for that matter, has access to each team's financial numbers, the next step in the process is attendance.  Here are each team's attendance figures for the last 5 seasons:

NY Yankees 20,683,793   Chicago Sox 12,415,827
LA Dodgers 18,438,063   Texas 11,727,202
St. Louis 16,979,616   Baltimore 11,636,794
LA Angels 16,889,532   Arizona 11,505,842
NY Mets 16,424,415   Colorado 11,383,288
Chicago Cubs 15,946,023   Toronto 10,977,678
San Francisco 15,655,242   Minnesota 10,829,565
Philadelphia 15,148,119   Cincinnati 10,482,149
Houston 14,715,287   Cleveland 10,271,831
Boston 14,634,775   Washington 9,898,811
San Diego 13,763,905   Oakland 9,874,359
Seattle 13,149,280   Pittsburgh 8,617,043
Detroit 12,787,150   Kansas City 7,601,086
Atlanta 12,677,297   Florida 7,445,434
Milwaukee 12,546,650   Tampa Bay 6,985,119

How did these teams draw fans?  Outside of the large market teams of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago who have the largest fan base to draw from, teams such as Houston, San Diego and Milwaukee draw fans by putting a winning product on the field.  That's not to say that the larger market teams don't need to win to draw fans, obviously they do, but I think there are fans who will go to games regardless of how well the team is doing.  With a larger market to draw from, there are more of these "diehard" fans to attend games.  To draw customers above the "diehard" fan level, a team has to field a product people are interested in, and people are interested in winning.

(note: I'm going to write this series in parts because there's going to be a lot of numbers.  Numbers tend to bog down the "readability" of postings, but in this instance the numbers are important.  Part 2 will look at winning and how efficient teams are at getting their win totals.)

 

Another Angels Front Office Video - Part 2

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Scott Boras has gone crazy.

Another Angels Front Office Video - Part 1

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Free Agent Hitters

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The Angels top free agent priority should be re-signing Mark Teixeira.  Everything pretty much centers on if they will be able to entice Teixeira to return to Anaheim before looking into signing another hitter.  If Teixeira returns, there probably won't be much else happening on the free agent front as far as hitter are concerned.  However, if Teixeira signs some place else, the Angels will need to replace his offense and since there isn't much within the Angels system, they will most likely explore the free agent market.


Free Agent (age) - 2008 salary
I'll update this information with the type of free agent each player is as soon as Elias releases the free agent rankings.

Catchers
The Angels are set behind the plate and are highly unlikely to even sniff around at the catcher position.

Brad Ausmus (40) - $2M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 216 15 47 8 0 3 24 25 41 0 2 .218 .303 .296
Career 6121 705 1537 264 34 79 596 622 998 101 53 .251 .325 .344

No thanks.

Paul Bako (37) - $0.75M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 299 30 65 11 2 6 35 34 90 0 2 .217 .299 .328
Career 2086 183 482 94 11 21 186 220 557 4 8 .231 .305 .317

No thanks.

Rod Barajas (33) - $0.7M
$2.5M club option for '09 with a $0.5M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 349 44 87 23 0 11 49 17 61 0 0 .249 .294 .410
Career 2092 256 504 130 1 73 284 123 368 1 2 .241 .289 .409

No thanks.

Josh Bard (31) - $2.237M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 178 11 36 9 0 1 16 18 25 0 0 .202 .279 .270
Career 1311 128 348 80 3 28 168 136 202 1 3 .265 .333 .395

No thanks.

Michael Barrett (32) - $3.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 94 9 19 3 0 2 9 9 16 0 0 .202 .274 .298
Career 3494 395 922 220 21 97 422 278 475 11 17 .264 .320 .422

Nope, we'll have none of that here.

Henry Blanco (37) - $3.175M
$3M mutual option for '09 with a $0.3M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 120 15 35 3 0 3 12 6 22 0 0 .292 .325 .392
Career 2129 214 483 117 10 52 241 188 395 4 10 .227 .289 .364

No thanks.

Johnny Estrada (33) - $1.25M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 53 0 9 0 0 0 4 1 4 0 0 .170 .200 .170
Career 2076 198 576 129 0 42 285 103 227 0 0 .277 .318 .400

No thanks.

Toby Hall (33) - $1.75M
$2.25M club option for '09 with a $0.15M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 127 7 33 3 0 2 7 6 19 0 0 .260 .304 .331
Career 2350 211 616 123 1 46 269 104 216 2 8 .262 .297 .374

No thanks.

Jason LaRue (35) - $.85M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 164 17 35 8 1 4 21 15 20 0 0 .213 .296 .348
Career 2559 294 592 144 7 92 337 229 731 13 11 .231 .317 .401

No thanks.

Paul Lo Duca (37) - $5M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 173 16 42 9 0 0 15 15 11 1 0 .243 .321 .295
Career 3892 483 1112 222 8 80 481 266 295 20 19 .286 .337 .409

I remember when this guy was good.  I also remember when I had hair, which was about the same time.

Miguel Olivo (30) - $2.05M    
$2.7M mutual option for '09 with a $0.1M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 306 29 78 22 0 12 41 7 82 7 0 .255 .278 .444
Career 2092 239 505 110 13 73 265 79 557 32 17 .241 .275 .411

Seven walks in over 300 at-bats?  Yikes.

Ivan Rodriguez (37) - $12.4M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 398 44 110 20 3 7 35 23 67 10 1 .276 .319 .394
Career 8645 1253 2605 524 48 295 1217 469 1288 124 59 .301 .339 .475

No Pudge, please.

David Ross (32) - $2.525M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 142 18 32 9 0 3 13 32 39 0 1 .225 .369 .352
Career 1124 132 250 53 3 60 154 135 342 0 1 .222 .309 .435

No thanks.

Javier Valentin (33) - $1.35M  

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 129 10 33 8 0 4 18 14 27 0 0 .256 .326 .411
Career 1507 154 379 82 5 45 210 131 257 0 0 .251 .310 .402

No thank you.

Jason Varitek (37) - $10.4M   

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 423 37 93 20 0 13 43 52 122 0 1 .220 .313 .359
Career 4401 573 1156 266 13 161 654 529 1024 25 18 .263 .346 .439

37 year old catcher who has an OBP of .313?  No thanks.

Gregg Zaun (38) - $3.75M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 245 29 58 12 0 6 30 38 38 2 1 .237 .340 .359
Career 3125 392 783 170 9 78 405 437 484 23 17 .251 .344 .386

38 year old catchers are even worse.

First basemen
If the Angels are unable to re-sign Teixeira to play first base, here are some of the options, but then as with everything, the price has to be right.

Rich Aurilia (37) - $4.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 407 33 115 21 1 10 52 30 56 1 1 .283 .332 .413
Career 5599 735 1550 299 22 184 740 442 837 23 18 .277 .330 .437

No thanks.

Sean Casey (34) - $0.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 199 14 64 14 0 0 17 17 25 1 0 .322 .381 .392
Career 5066 690 1531 322 12 130 735 477 577 18 8 .302 .367 .447

I like Sean Casey.  Maybe not as an everyday player, but at least as an almost everyday player.  Doesn't have a lot of pop in his bat, but he does take his walks and makes decent contact.  Useful player at the right price and in the right situation.

Tony Clark (37) - $0.9M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 151 12 34 5 0 3 24 31 55 0 0 .225 .359 .318
Career 4466 622 1176 229 11 247 813 516 1185 6 9 .263 .340 .485

No thanks.

Carlos Delgado (37) - $16M
$12M club option for '09 with a $4M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 598 96 162 32 1 38 115 72 124 1 1 .271 .353 .518
Career 7189 1226 2010 476 17 469 1489 1097 1725 14 8 .280 .383 .546

The Mets will most likely pick up Delgado's option after his monster second half.  I think his pre-All Star break numbers are more indicative of what to expect from him in 2009.

Nomar Garciaparra (35) - $8.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 163 24 43 9 0 8 28 15 11 1 1 .264 .326 .466
Career 5426 910 1702 362 52 226 920 395 526 93 31 .314 .363 .525

Garciaparra is an interesting option.  Not the great shortstop as he was a few years ago, and definitely more fragile, but his ability to play third, first and occasionally short make Nomar  a decent bench player...at the right price.

Jason Giambi (38) - $23.4M
$22M club option for '09 with a $5M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 458 68 113 19 1 32 96 76 111 2 1 .247 .373 .502
Career 6332 1116 1812 362 9 396 1279 1205 1308 18 11 .286 .408 .534

Giambi surprised a lot of people by having a decent season in 2008.  Certainly $23M is way too much for the big first baseman, even if he re-grows his mustache, but Giambi could see time DH'ing for some AL club, just not likely to be in Anaheim.

Eric Hinske (31) - $0.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 381 59 94 21 1 20 60 47 88 10 3 .247 .333 .465
Career 2906 445 739 187 16 105 399 346 693 60 20 .254 .335 .438

No thanks.

Kevin Millar (37) - $3.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 531 73 124 25 0 20 72 71 93 0 1 .234 .323 .394
Career 4437 619 1228 282 15 163 670 533 789 7 9 .277 .361 .457

No thanks.

Richie Sexson (34) - $15.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 280 29 62 9 0 12 36 43 86 1 0 .221 .321 .382
Career 4928 748 1286 260 17 306 943 588 1313 14 13 .261 .344 .507

Yeah, right.  Big sexy no thank you.

Mark Teixeira (29) - $12.5M     

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 574 102 177 41 0 33 121 97 93 2 0 .308 .410 .552
Career 3414 566 989 223 13 203 676 442 694 13 3 .290 .378 .541

Rumors surround Teixeira.  Some people think he'll end up in pinstripes, others think he'll be playing in Fenway, and other are certain he'll return to the Angels.  He's absolutely the best hitter available and will get his money.

Daryle Ward (34) - $1.2M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 102 8 22 7 0 4 17 16 24 0 0 .216 .319 .402
Career 2234 242 588 131 5 90 379 192 422 1 6 .263 .320 .447

No thanks.

Second basemen
There is no shortage of middle infielders in Anaheim and the Angels are unlikely to sign a free agent to play either short or second.  The only way they'll concider one of these players is if they make a couple trades and do not receive a middle infielder back (Uggla or Greene).

Ray Durham (37) - $7.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 370 64 107 35 0 6 45 53 72 8 4 .289 .380 .432
Career 7408 1249 2054 440 79 192 875 820 1201 273 97 .277 .352 .436

No thanks.

Damion Easley (39) - $0.95M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 316 33 85 10 2 6 44 19 38 0 0 .269 .322 .370
Career 5484 735 1386 287 27 163 684 510 935 114 56 .253 .329 .404

No, not again.

David Eckstein (34) - $4.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 324 32 86 21 0 2 27 31 32 2 1 .265 .343 .349
Career 4096 588 1165 182 18 32 312 310 337 112 43 .284 .351 .361

Eckstein was rumored to be returning to the Angels last season at the trading deadline, but went to Arizona instead.  If the Angels do trade one of their current infielders, don't be surprised if Eckstein is wearing a halo again.

Mark Grudzielanek (39) - $4.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 331 36 99 24 0 3 24 19 41 2 1 .299 .345 .399
Career 6942 936 2010 391 36 90 629 356 944 131 52 .290 .332 .395

No thanks.

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33) - $0.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 261 47 85 20 2 6 36 23 36 15 3 .326 .384 .487
Career 2795 386 726 156 17 39 252 240 369 127 54 .260 .330 .370

No thanks.

Orlando Hudson (31) - $6.25M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 407 54 124 29 3 8 41 40 62 4 1 .305 .367 .450
Career 3119 419 879 179 44 68 372 302 504 42 18 .282 .346 .433

Probably one of the best players in this group, but would most likely be too expensive for the Angels to sign if they needed him.

Tadahito Iguchi (34) - $3.85M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 310 29 72 15 1 2 24 26 75 8 1 .232 .292 .306
Career 1841 267 494 91 11 44 205 189 387 48 13 .268 .338 .401

No thanks.

Jeff Kent (41) - $9M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 440 42 123 23 1 12 59 25 52 0 1 .280 .327 .418
Career 8498 1320 2461 560 47 377 1518 801 1522 94 60 .290 .356 .500

Maybe 10 years ago.

Felipe Lopez (29) - $4.9M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 481 64 136 28 2 6 46 43 82 8 8 .283 .343 .387
Career 3201 448 838 159 27 71 334 322 697 109 49 .262 .330 .395

No thanks.

Mark Loretta (37) - $2.75M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 261 27 73 15 0 4 38 29 30 0 0 .280 .350 .383
Career 5631 749 1671 301 22 76 604 535 584 46 34 .297 .361 .399

No thanks.

Nick Punto (31) - $2.4M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 338 43 96 19 4 2 28 32 57 15 6 .284 .344 .382
Career 1857 245 468 78 19 11 140 189 345 69 26 .252 .319 .332

Punto's not a bad player, but he seems to have that every-other-year thing going on, and 2009 is the year to avoid.

Shortstops
Angels have 4 players who can play short, I don't see them signing any other these guys.

Orlando Cabrera (34) - $10M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 661 93 186 33 1 8 57 56 71 19 6 .281 .334 .371
Career 5962 799 1632 374 29 105 684 433 564 184 45 .274 .322 .399

No return engagement for O.C.

Alex Cintron (30) - I don't know

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 133 12 38 5 1 1 10 7 15 0 2 .286 .321 .361
Career 2030 243 563 104 21 33 222 110 223 18 14 .277 .315 .398

No thanks.

Alex Cora (33) - $2M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 152 14 41 8 2 0 9 16 13 1 1 .270 .371 .349
Career 2805 303 688 117 34 34 242 201 356 33 17 .245 .313 .348

No thanks.

Adam Everett (32) - $2.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 127 19 27 6 1 2 20 12 15 0 0 .213 .278 .323
Career 2272 276 558 108 15 37 234 143 362 59 18 .246 .298 .355

Hmmm, let me think.  No.

Rafael Furcal (31) - $15.7M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 143 34 51 12 2 5 16 20 17 8 3 .357 .439 .573
Career 4636 788 1328 227 53 83 418 468 658 259 75 .286 .352 .412

Furcal is the type of player I think the Angels could use.  Someone to take over the lead-off spot from Figgins, gets on base, and can steal a base when needed.  Not going to be cheap however.

Cesar Izturis (29) - $2.85M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 414 50 109 10 3 1 24 29 26 24 6 .263 .319 .309
Career 3165 342 822 135 27 12 231 169 304 86 43 .260 .299 .331

Maicer's big brother, but sorry, no thanks.

Edgar Renteria (33) - $10M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 503 69 136 22 2 10 55 37 64 6 3 .270 .317 .382
Career 7140 1090 2070 392 26 127 817 634 1005 280 104 .290 .347 .405

No thanks.

Juan Uribe (30) - $4.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 324 38 80 22 1 7 40 22 64 1 3 .247 .296 .386
Career 3438 432 870 181 35 111 459 194 666 35 34 .253 .295 .423

No thanks.

Ramon Vazquez (32) - $0.81M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 300 44 87 18 3 6 40 38 66 0 1 .290 .365 .430
Career 1747 227 449 79 17 21 160 186 367 19 7 .257 .328 .358

No thanks.

Omar Vizquel (42) - $5M
$5.2M club option for '09 with a $0.3M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 266 24 59 10 1 0 23 24 29 5 4 .222 .283 .267
Career 9745 1361 2657 426 72 77 892 965 980 385 156 .273 .338 .355

Would have loved to see him playing for the Angels...in the '90's instead of Gary DiSarcina.  One of the best fielding shortstops in the history of baseball, but about 15 years too late to play for the Halos.

Third basemen
The Angels already have a couple options for the hot-corner.  Either Figgins will remain at third or the Angels finally give the position over to Brandon Wood.  There have been rumors that Dan Uggla may be traded to the Angels and would play third base, but I don't see it happening...at least not yet.

Casey Blake (35) - $6.1M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 536 71 147 36 1 21 81 49 120 3 0 .274 .345 .463
Career 3304 472 873 201 10 128 447 308 733 32 27 .264 .334 .447

I was hoping the Angels would have traded for him instead of letting him go to the Dodgers last season.

Hank Blalock (28) - $6M
$6.2M club option for '09 with a $0.25M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 258 37 74 19 1 12 38 19 40 1 0 .287 .338 .508
Career 3042 437 835 174 13 127 469 281 597 11 6 .274 .337 .465

Hmmm, not too shabby.

Aaron Boone (36) - $1M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 232 23 56 13 1 6 28 18 52 0 1 .241 .299 .384
Career 3858 519 1017 216 17 126 555 303 705 107 30 .264 .327 .426

No thanks, but it would be interesting to have another Boone play in Anaheim.

Russell Branyan (33) - I don't know.

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 132 24 33 8 0 12 20 19 42 1 0 .250 .342 .583
Career 2000 283 460 96 7 133 320 281 797 11 4 .230 .328 .485

No thanks.

Craig Counsell (38) - $2.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 248 31 56 14 1 1 14 46 42 3 1 .226 .355 .302
Career 3976 551 1014 186 31 35 321 506 559 97 43 .255 .343 .344

No thanks.

Joe Crede (31) - $5.1M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 335 41 83 18 1 17 55 30 45 0 3 .248 .314 .460
Career 2768 350 712 143 4 125 422 170 403 4 12 .257 .306 .447

No thanks.

Fernando Tatis (34) - $0.56M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 273 33 81 16 1 11 47 29 59 3 0 .297 .369 .484
Career 2646 379 699 149 10 103 394 293 636 46 20 .264 .346 .445

Nice season from an unexpected source, wouldn't think that'll happen again...but then, I wouldn't be too surprised.

Outfielders
If the Angels do not pick up Garret Anderson's option (they won't) or re-sign him at a lower salary and Teixeira signs with another team, the Angels might sign an outfielder.  They might sign one even if they get Teixeira to return.  Going into the 2008 season, the Halos were pretty deep in the outfield, but if Anderson and Juan Rivera are gone, with the continued struggles of Gary Matthews Jr., and the aging of Vlad Guerrero's knees, what was once a position of depth might now be a position of need. 

Bobby Abreu (35) - $16M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 609 100 180 39 4 20 100 73 109 22 11 .296 .371 .471
Career 6490 1174 1946 454 53 241 1084 1160 1405 318 103 .300 .405 .498

If the Angels look to sign an outfielder, I would like them to sign Abreu, but for no more than two years and at nothing more than $8M - $10M.  Won't likely happen, but it'd be nice to have his bat in the Halo line-up for a couple years.

Moises Alou (42) - $7.5M     

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 49 4 17 2 0 0 9 2 4 1 1 .347 .389 .388
Career 7037 1109 2134 421 39 332 1287 737 894 106 37 .303 .369 .516

If this guy could just stay healthy.  Geez.  But then he is 42 years old.

Garret Anderson (37) - $14M    
$14M club option for '09 with a $3M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 557 66 163 27 3 15 84 29 77 7 4 .293 .325 .433
Career 7989 1024 2368 489 35 272 1292 397 1117 78 47 .296 .327 .469

The Angels should sign him to play only after the All-star break.  I think it'll all come down to Anderson's desire to retire an Angel or if he thinks he can still play everyday.

Rocco Baldelli (27) - $2.25M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 80 12 21 5 0 4 13 7 25 0 0 .263 .344 .475
Career 1736 255 488 94 17 52 234 90 346 58 16 .281 .325 .445

Sign him.  But only if he's cheap enough, $3M - $4M a year and then play him 4 or 5 games a week.  And sign Garret Anderson for about the same amount and have these two guys split time in left.

Willie Bloomquist (31) - $1M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 165 32 46 1 0 0 9 25 29 14 3 .279 .377 .285
Career 1255 191 330 46 6 6 98 104 231 71 16 .263 .322 .324

No thanks.

Milton Bradley (31) - $5.25M   

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 414 78 133 32 1 22 77 80 112 5 3 .321 .436 .563
Career 2867 440 803 170 14 103 399 389 616 74 35 .280 .370 .457

No thanks (although I do like him...when he's healthy)

Emil Brown (34) - $1.45M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 402 48 98 14 2 13 59 27 65 4 2 .244 .297 .386
Career 2244 296 580 112 12 59 326 196 468 52 14 .258 .323 .398

No thanks.

Pat Burrell (32) - $14M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 536 74 134 33 3 33 86 102 136 0 0 .250 .367 .507
Career 4535 655 1166 253 14 251 827 785 1273 5 1 .257 .367 .485

Possible Teixeira replacement, but I wouldn't go overboard in paying Burrell.  Call it a hunch.

Mike Cameron (36) - $7M    
$10M club option for '09 with a $750K buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 444 69 108 25 2 25 70 54 142 17 5 .243 .331 .477
Career 5896 935 1474 330 56 241 856 750 1642 289 79 .250 .340 .448

No thanks.

Adam Dunn (29) - $13M     

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 517 79 122 23 0 40 100 122 164 2 1 .236 .386 .513
Career 3871 699 955 201 8 278 672 797 1256 59 19 .247 .381 .518

Another possible replacement for Teixeira, and one I like.  People complain about his high strikeout rate, but who cares when you get on base almost 40% of the time and can hit 40+ a year.

Jim Edmonds (39) - $8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 340 53 80 19 2 20 55 55 82 2 2 .235 .343 .479
Career 6612 1207 1881 414 25 382 1176 974 1669 65 50 .284 .377 .528

How cool would it be to see Edmonds back with the Angels?  Not going to happen, but it most definitely would be cool.

Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75M
$2.75M club option for '09 with a $0.25M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 246 32 66 13 0 11 39 28 58 1 0 .268 .349 .455
Career 5303 824 1477 340 23 233 865 600 1057 148 43 .279 .359 .483

No thanks.

Brian Giles (38) - $9.66M    
$9M club option for '09 with a $3M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 559 81 171 40 4 12 63 87 52 2 2 .306 .398 .456
Career 6302 1103 1854 401 54 285 1055 1157 804 108 45 .294 .404 .511

Could be a decent signing, if at the right price.

Luis Gonzalez (41) - $2M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 341 30 89 26 1 8 47 41 43 1 2 .261 .336 .413
Career 9157 1412 2591 596 68 354 1439 1155 1218 128 87 .283 .367 .479

Anyone remember Steve Finley?

Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $8.3    
$16.5M club option for '09 with a $4M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 490 67 122 30 1 18 71 78 89 0 1 .249 .353 .424
Career 9316 1612 2680 503 38 611 1772 1240 1682 184 69 .288 .373 .547

I love this guy, but no thanks.

Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15.5M    
$15M club option for '09 with a $3M buyout

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 541 85 164 31 3 27 91 51 77 5 3 .303 .365 .521
Career 6617 1126 2136 404 43 392 1268 666 813 173 86 .323 .389 .575

Hopefully, the Angels will probably pick up Vlad's option or sign him to an extension so he finishes his career in Anaheim.

Raul Ibanez (37) - $5.5M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 635 85 186 43 3 23 110 64 110 2 4 .293 .358 .479
Career 4791 695 1370 277 34 182 794 446 787 34 24 .286 .346 .472

No thanks.

Gabe Kapler (33) - $0.8M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 229 36 69 17 2 8 38 13 39 3 1 .301 .340 .498
Career 2654 398 724 157 15 72 340 229 417 71 27 .273 .331 .425

No thanks.

Mark Kotsay (33) - $7M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 402 45 111 25 4 6 49 32 45 2 4 .276 .329 .403
Career 5419 709 1524 304 45 109 609 462 634 91 55 .281 .337 .414

No thanks.

Kevin Mench (31) - $0.6M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 115 18 28 11 1 0 10 14 18 2 0 .243 .321 .357
Career 2335 309 629 150 14 89 330 181 329 12 6 .269 .326 .460

No thanks.

Jason Michaels (33) - $2.2M
$2.6MM club option for '09

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 286 28 64 13 1 8 53 27 65 2 1 .224 .292 .360
Career 1855 282 503 105 8 45 247 204 398 20 16 .271 .345 .409

No thanks.

Craig Monroe (32) - $3.82

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 163 22 33 9 0 8 29 16 48 0 1 .202 .274 .405
Career 2612 360 661 144 9 112 417 181 567 19 18 .253 .301 .444

Thank you, but no.

Greg Norton (36) - $1M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 187 29 49 12 0 7 35 33 44 0 0 .262 .373 .439
Career 2334 312 589 124 8 89 331 303 584 15 18 .252 .339 .427

No thanks.

Corey Patterson (29) - $3M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 366 46 75 17 2 10 34 16 57 14 9 .205 .238 .344
Career 3466 479 876 161 30 104 363 169 768 182 50 .253 .291 .407

A sub-.300 career OBP?  And a team actually paid him $3,000,000?  No thank you please.

Jay Payton (36) - $5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 338 41 82 10 2 7 41 22 53 8 1 .243 .291 .346
Career 4119 558 1145 189 29 119 521 254 499 46 32 .278 .323 .425

Nope.

Wily Mo Pena (27) - $2M
$5MM club option or $2M player option for '09

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 195 10 40 6 0 2 10 10 48 0 1 .205 .243 .267
Career 1590 196 402 67 5 77 225 106 520 12 8 .253 .307 .447

Monster power, but little else.  No thanks.

Scott Podsednik (33) - $0.75M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 162 22 41 8 1 1 15 16 28 12 4 .253 .322 .333
Career 2631 406 713 132 28 28 201 248 438 236 74 .271 .337 .374

No thanks.

Manny Ramirez (37) - $20M   

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 552 102 183 36 1 37 121 87 124 3 0 .332 .430 .601
Career 7610 1444 2392 507 18 527 1725 1212 1667 37 31 .314 .411 .593

Welcome to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Mr. Ramirez, hope your stay here is mutually beneficial.

Juan Rivera (30) - $2.025M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 256 31 63 13 0 12 45 16 33 1 1 .246 .282 .438
Career 1748 224 497 101 2 72 278 123 222 9 17 .284 .331 .468

I don't think Rivera would be a full-time player with the Angels in 2009, so he's likely to sign with a team who will play him everyday, which he deserves.  I just hope it's in the National League so he doesn't hurt the Angels.

Brad Wilkerson (32) - $3M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 264 21 58 12 2 4 28 35 68 3 5 .220 .308 .326
Career 3187 500 788 193 28 122 399 492 947 53 43 .247 .350 .440

No thanks.

DHs
Have one, don't need anymore.

Mike Sweeney (35) - $0.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 126 13 36 8 0 2 12 7 6 0 0 .286 .331 .397
Career 4795 713 1434 305 5 199 849 491 561 50 25 .299 .368 .489

No thanks.

Frank Thomas (41) - $12.56M    

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 246 27 59 7 1 8 30 39 57 0 0 .240 .349 .374
Career 8199 1494 2468 495 12 521 1704 1667 1397 32 23 .301 .419 .555

Thomas used to be one of my favorite players, but getting old sucks for all of us.

Jose Vidro (34) - $8.5M

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Season 308 28 72 11 0 7 45 18 36 2 1 .234 .274 .338
Career 5113 720 1524 341 12 128 654 478 556 23 16 .298 .359 .445

No thanks.

Purtians vs. Staticals

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Here we go again - The Great Debate.  The right-brained Puritans vs. the left-brained Staticals.  I've written articles here espousing both positions; the relevance of statistical analysis and the "magic' of baseball.  I've got my feet firmly planted in the middle.  This article was originally intended as a comment to a posting on another site, but once I started writing, I knew it'd be too much for that...too long and probably under-appreciated (not that it'd be appreciated here, but at least this site will get the credit).  Anyway, I was pointed to this article which I had thought was trying to downplay the significance of statistical analysis in baseball.  After reading it a couple of times, I get the idea that the writer was trying to do something that I'm completely behind; the melding of stats and "the human element" in baseball.  Believe it or not, there is middle-ground in most things in this world, including baseball.  Many people are of the opinion that baseball is either a free-flowing game of random moments caused by the ability of humans to rise above the elements, or that baseball is a calculated series of statistically predicted events that can be proven with mathematical theory.  I have read and heard people vehemently argue their side on this issue and completely ignore the other side's point.  Why can't people agree that statistics don't tell the entire story, but statistical analysis does have a place in modern "fandom"?

The Problem I have With Staticals
Sabermatricians have continually championed the thought that "clutchiness", or the ability for a player to perform better in pressure situations does not exist because they don't have the ability to quantify the numbers.  They claim that since the numbers fluctuate so much during a player's season or career, the ability to hit in the clutch doesn't exist.  They will claim that since a player will bat .300 with runners in scoring position during one season and then the next year the same player will hit .200 proves that the consistent ability to drive in runs doesn't exist.  Another element of baseball that a Statical will claim doesn't exist is "team chemistry", or a team's ability to play better based on the influences of player personalities surrounding each team.  How can this be dismissed when in almost every other situation in life a version of "team chemistry" is an influence?  Doesn't a person do better at their job when they are surrounded by other people they like or admire?  And on the other side, doesn't production go down when co-workers don't get along?  Or don't some people have the ability to "rise to the occasion"?  I'm sure we all know people who we either work or live with who do handle pressure better than others.  Why would baseball be any different?  The human element is an accepted dynamic in every other situation, but not in baseball?  Just because you can't put a number on "team chemistry" doesn't mean it doesn't exist.  Another problem I have with Staticals is recently someone came up with BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is supposed to express a player's "luck".  How can someone who claims something is either "black or white" such as clutch ability, and then claim something happened because of some mysterious outside force called "luck".  You can't have it both ways.  Claiming everything is quantifiable and binary, or everything is affected by outside influences is narrow minded.  Everything is influenced by everything.  Physical ability, mental ability, luck, nerves, random events all play a part in the outcome.  If it didn't, then why play the games with people?  Let's just have the World Series played with Strat-O-Matic cards.

The Problem I Have With Puritans
Puritans think they are the "true" baseball fans and that Staticals over-analyze baseball to the point that their numbers pollute baseball, taking away from the pure enjoyment.  However, they ignore statistics and how they relate to baseball performance limiting their ability to completely understand the game of baseball.  That's not meant to sound condescending as I've known many people who were huge fans, but didn't care about stats.  It didn't mean they weren't real fans or were less of a fan of the game.  To me it meant they liked baseball for the spirituality of it and there's nothing wrong with that.  I think it'd be interesting to go to a game and just watch for the beauty of it.  To appreciate the athleticism of turning a double play or of robbing a homerun, the color of the grass, to watch a person throw a baseball 90+ mph, the pleasure of your team winning.  To watch the game played "with joy, verve, and vitality".  But there's a whole other layer of the game that'd be missed if you didn't understand the "why" of what happened.  Puritans understand most statistics, or they put more importance on certain stats than others.  They'll say so-and-so is a great pitcher because he won 17 games, ignoring the fact that his ERA is approaching 5.00 and he had the benefit of the best run support in the league.  Or a player is a great pitcher because he saved 62 games without looking at any of the other numbers that point to a different conclusion.

This season, the Angels were middle of the pack statistically.  They didn't lead any statistical category...except wins.  Their Run Differential would have suggested their record was more in line of an 88-74 team, rather than a 100-62 team.  Staticals will claim they got lucky to get those additional 12 wins, while Puritans will say they were clutch when a game changing situation occurred.  Statistically, the Angels were a good team, but not the best team.  They were the perfect example of a team who used something other than a statistically measured ability to win games.  Was it team chemistry?  I can't answer that since I've never been in the Angels clubhouse, but as a person who reads so much about baseball, I'm under the impression that the signing of Torii Hunter added something to the personality of the Angels.  From his quotes in the papers and on the internet he seems like the kind of player who would bring a team together.  Like the person you work with that puts things in perspective, fosters teamwork and increases the desire to get things done.  Were they more clutch than other teams?  This can be measures by the teams' batting average with runners in scoring position...kind of.  The stat will tell us how the team did over the season with RISP, but that could encompass at bats where the Angels were already ahead, which isn't really clutch in my mind.  To me, a clutch hit is one that puts your team ahead.  (note: the Angels were 6th in the American League in batting average with RISP).

I don't know how the Angels won or what led them to the best record in baseball, but I'm sure some of the story can be explained statistically, while some will have other unquantifiable reasons for their success.  And I'm sure both sides are right.

Angels Get Ready For A Busy Off Season

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The Angels will have some decisions to make this off-season regarding at least three of their players.  The Angels hold options on Garret Anderson, Vlad Guerrero, and John Lackey for the 2009 season.

Lackey sm.jpgJohn Lackey - $9M club option ($0.5M buyout)
Guerrero and Lackey's option are pretty much no-brainers, as they both will most likely be exercised.  The Angels may attempt to sign both players to extensions rather than exercise a one-year option, with the higher priority being Lackey.  Lackey will be 30 years old on opening day of 2009, and is in the midst of his prime as the leader of the Angels' pitching staff.  Although he started the 2008 season on the disabled list, this was the first time he had missed any time due to injury and there appeared to be no lingering effects of his forearm strain the rest of the season.  Locking up Lackey for another three or four years at the right price seems like it'd be something the Angels would do, as it would avoid possibly losing the pitcher to free agency, but Lackey has stated he wants to wait to see what moves the Angels make to improve their offense before signing an extension to stay in Anaheim.  Apparently he's pissed about the Angels' poor post-season performance.

guerrero.jpgVlad Guerrero - $15M club option ($3M buyout)
Guerrero is definitely entering the declining years of his career and is no longer one of the top-tier players, but that's not to say he couldn't have one or two big years left in his body.  He's still a very good, if not a great player at times, but the decline of his offensive numbers and the questionable health of his knees have taken the 32 year old Guerrero from one of the top 3 players in the majors to an above average player.  Over the last 5 seasons, Guerrero's slugging percentage has decreased each year from .598 in 2004 to a career low (since playing full-time) .521 in 2008.  Not picking up Guerrero's option, is well, not an option for the Angels and even negotiating an extension for an additional 2-3 years is probably in the Angels' best interest.

anderson sm.jpgGarret Anderson - $14M club option ($3M buyout)
Garret Anderson is in a different situation than Lackey or Guerrero.  Anderson's $14 million option is above the 36 year-old's value, so his days as an Angel may be over if he's unwilling to sign for a lot less.  Anderson still has value as a fourth outfielder / DH, but the Angels could use that $14M for more productive player(s).

 

Angels Free Agents:
In order to receive any compensatory draft picks for losing a free agent, the Angels must offer arbitration to their eligible free agents (here's an explanation of the free agent compensation rule).  The Angels will most likely offer arbitration to all of their free agent players, with the exception of Juan Rivera who will not net the Angels a draft pick if he signs with another team.  Teixeira and Rodriguez will for sure decline arbitration and will test the free agent market.

Teixeira sm.jpgMark Teixeira - Type A
It's not going to be easy for the Angels to re-sign Teixeira, as he's most likely going to the highest bidder.

 

 

FRodriguez.jpgFrancisco Rodriguez - Type A
K-Rod's days as the Angels' closer are probably over unless he's willing to sign for less than market value to stay in Anaheim.  The rumors of a 4-5 year deal in the range of $14M to $15M are, in my opinion, is too much for a one-inning pitcher.

 

Garland sm.jpgJon Garland - Type B
Garland did a good job as the #5 pitcher in the Angels' rotation, but he's expected to sign for at least the $12M he earned in 2008.  Some club should be willing to sign him for that amount, but it doesn't seem like it'll be the Angels.  If the Angels offer Garland arbitration and he accepts, Garland would likely receive a small raise over his 2008 salary to return to the Angels rotation.

 

Rivera.jpgJuan Rivera - None
The 30 year-old outfielder saw his value increase when he took over for the struggling Gary Matthews Jr., but his production went down towards the end of the season and so did his value.  He will most likely sign with another team, one willing to play him full-time.

 

DOliver.jpgDarren Oliver - Type A
Oliver is in the strange position as he probably pitched too well for his own good.  I've read Oliver will be classified as a type A free agent meaning any team that signs him would have to give up a first round draft pick.  Oliver is 38 years-old and will probably not find too many offers from other teams.  I can see the Angels offering him arbitration and then doing a one-year deal in the range of $3M-$4M, with an option for a second year. This might be the best offer Oliver will see.

 

Daily Notes:

  • It seems Jake Peavy likes Anaheim - well, what isn't there to like?  The San Diego Padres are exploring the possibility of trading their stud pitcher this winter and it could become the same scenario as last winter when the Twins were looking to trade Johan Santana.  Santana eventually went to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and 3 minor league pitchers and the Padres could expect at least that much in a deal for their #1 starter.  Peavy lives north of San Diego and his agent, Barry Axelrod stated, “the ability or opportunity to win is very important to Jake, and hopefully some sort of coincidence with his and his family's lifestyle.”  Peavy cares where he plays and holds a full no-trade clause (as did Santana) and he has told the Padres he'd be willing to waive his NTC only if he were traded to another National League team or...the Angels.  Axelrod acknowledged that the Angels are one AL club that would draw extra consideration.  Not only is Peavy one of the best pitchers in the majors, he is signed to a relative bargain contract that would pay him $11 million, $15 million, $16 million and $17 million over the next four years, plus a $22 million option in 2013 ($4M buy-out), and he's just 27 years-old (in May).
  • Not a whole lot going on until after the World Series is over and players become free agents.  There are a few trade rumors floating around.  One has the Angels interested in Florida's Dan Uggla.  According to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times:

    "The Angels could move Figgins to left field, if they do not bring Anderson back. They have considered whether to compensate for the loss of Teixeira's big bat by installing Brandon Wood in the infield, trying to trade for infielder Dan Uggla of the Florida Marlins, or both."

    There would have to be a lot of things settled before the Angels would start looking at a deal like this. 

2008 Season Review - Part 1

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The New Kid In Town
After ending 2007 season being swept by the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, the Angels front office was looking toReagins.jpg make a change.  The first big change was the resignation of long-time Angels general manager, Bill Stoneman.  Stoneman stepped down as the Angels GM in mid-October and was replaced by the team's director of player development, GM Tony Reagins.  One of first situations Reagins faced was the possible acquisition of Yankee's third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who had opted out of his contract, which was announced during the World Series, making him a free agent.  The Angels were considered one of the front runners to sign Rodriquez who would address their need for a big bat and someone to man the hot corner.  The Angels apparently talked everything but money with Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras.  Rodriguez would end up re-signing with the Yankees, but another All-Star third baseman became available during the general manager's meetings in November. 

Miguel Cabrera
The Florida Marlins put Miguel Cabrera on the market, and once again the Angels were rumored to be the front-runners in landing the third baseman.  The Angels first offer was rumored to be Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, and Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis/Hank Conger, but the Marlins were insisting on Howie Kendrick in any deal.  The trade rumors also included Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla in the deal if Kendrick was to be traded, but the addition of Uggla would require the Angels adding a fourth player.  The Angels were speculated to have briefly looked into signing free agent third baseman Mike Lowell, but Lowell was reportedly looking for a 4-year deal, something the Angels weren't interested in doing.  Towards the end of November, the Angels rumored offer for M-Cab was Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick, Chris Bootcheck, and Nick Adenhart. 

The First Trade
On November 19th, Reagins made his first trade as Angels GM when he acquired Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox for shortstop Orlando Cabrera.  Many thought the acquisition of Garland was done to allow the Angels to include a pitcher in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, rumored to be either Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders.  Also, the speculation was the White Sox were freeing up money to sign Minnesota's free agent center fielder Torii Hunter.Hunter2.jpg

The "Ninja" Strikes
Out of nowhere, on Thanksgiving Day, the Angels signed 7-time Gold Glove winner Torii Hunter to a five-year contract worth $90M.  The Hunter deal was consummated over chicken soft tacos at a Del Taco off of the 91 freeway between GM Tony Reagins and Hunter's agent Larry Reynolds.  The signing of Hunter and the trade for Garland during the same week caused speculation to grow that the Angels were getting closer to making a trade with the Marlins for Cabrera.  With the additions of Hunter and Garland, the Angels now had an excess in the outfield which would allow them to deal either Reggie Willits or Juan Rivera, and the inclusion of one of the Angels starters.

The Other Miguel
The Angels were also rumored to be interested in dealing for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada.  This rumor consisted of the Angels sending shortstop Erick Aybar and "something" to Baltimore for Tejada.  If the Angels did acquire Tejada, they were most likely going to play him at third and have Chone Figgins move over to play short.  The Orioles were rumored to have requested both Brandon Wood and Jered Weaver for Tejada.  Apparently the Orioles front-office were smoking crack that day because it was also rumored that they wouldn't pick up any of Tejada's remaining contract ($26M over two years).  Tejada was eventually traded to the Houston Astros for outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Troy Patton, Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate and third baseman Mike Costanzo.

Cabrera Deal Hits a Snag
According to an article in the L.A. Times, Angels owner Arte Moreno wasn't happy with the way the Marlins dealt with his club on the Miguel Cabrera negotiations.  The Angels thought they had deals only to have the Marlins come back at the last minute asking for more.  Moreno also believed this happened to the Dodgers, were the Marlins were playing the two teams off each other.  According to Jayson Stark, the Angels told the Marlins they were ready to deal whenever they were ready to give a little on their demands.  In the deal for sure: Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis. One of Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Nick Adenhart were to be included as well.  However, the Marlins wanted two of those starters. The Halos wouldn't do it, but they were willing to give one starter plus Reggie Willits.

But in the end it was the Tigers who won the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes during the winter meetings.  Detroit received Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for six players - Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and three minor league pitching prospects Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz and Dallas Trahern.  Looking back at the trade, many "experts" thought the Marlins got less for the two players than the Angels weremiguel_cabrera.jpg rumored to have offered for just Cabrera.

The Rumored Offers
There were many speculated offers that the Angels were rumored to have either offered the Marlins or the Marlins were asking for in deals for Miguel Cabrera.  Some of them included:

  • Reggie Willits, Howie Kendrick, and a catcher.  The Marlins are apparently insisting on the inclusion of top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart.
  • Howie KendrickJeff Mathis, pitcher Nick Adenhart, and one of Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, or Ervin Santana.
  • Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick, Chris Bootcheck, and Nick Adenhart.

Cabrera ended up with decent numbers for the Tigers, but not what they had hoped for.  M-Cab hit .292 (lowest in 5 years), but he hit 37 home runs and drove in 126 runs.  Cabrera's weight and fielding became a problem for the Tigers and they ended up moving the portly third baseman to first base, where he played 143 games.  Looking back on the possible deal for Cabrera a lot of things would most certainly have been affected.  If the Angels had been able to get Cabrera for Kendrick, Mathis, Adenhart and Bootcheck, then it would have been an okay deal.  But then if that deal had been done, would the Angels have traded for Mark Teixeira at the trading deadline?  Probably not.  And where would they end up playing Cabrera since he had eaten his way off of third?

Building A Cheap Bullpen

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Career minor leaguers have always been a curiosity of mine.  Why do some players get the label of "career minor leaguer" and others get promoted when the former has just as good of stats as the later?  What is it about a player who has a "Million Dollar Arm" who can't make that last step of their profession.  Is it always the "ten cent head", or is it that they've been stuck with the label of "career minor leaguer" and clubs can't get past it?  Bill James, among others, have developed Major League Equivalency (MLE) formulae which demonstrated that it was possible to use AAA stats to predict how a player is most likely to perform at the major league level.  Obviously, these MLE's don't take into account the type of pitcher the player is, i.e. hard-thrower, or a soft-tosser, or even a knuckleballer.  The type of pitcher shouldn't matter, or how fast a pitcher's fastball is clocked, or much his curve breaks.  Beside health issues, all that should matter are the results.  But when talking with an acquaintance who works as a scout, he said that a pitcher could do well in the minors, but if he lacks an "out pitch", major league hitters will wait him out as he nibbles with his pitches.  He added, "As for the success at the higher levels for these career minor leaguers there are a few variables that have to be looked at; 1) They are experienced and veterans of the league; 2) There is a better understanding of the league and the situations that face them daily on and off the field; 3) They are not facing big league hitters.  There are times in the players career were they may have wonderful seasons, but good Triple A numbers don’t always mean good MLB numbers."

The purpose of this article is to question why organizations ignore these types of players.  And why wouldn't an organization go out and acquire some of these types of players to build a cheap and effective bullpen.  I don't think it'd take much to acquire these types of players, in fact most have been granted free agency and signed as minor league free agents at some point in their careers and have changed organizations more than twice.  The Angels spent $21M on their bullpen in 2008, almost half of that went to closer Francisco Rodriguez, but $10M went to 3 pitchers; Darren Oliver ($2M), Justin Speier and Scot Shields ($4.25M each).  For their $10M, the Angels got:

G W L IP H ER BB SO ERA
180 15 13 203.1 182 80 73 168 3.54


Not bad, but I'd like to see that strikeout rate be a bit better.  The above total was held down due to Speier's bad year; otherwise the totals aren't too bad.

Below are 4 pitchers, all over 30 who did very well in Triple-A in 2008 (and throughout their minor league career) and who have had limited major league experience:

Jason Childers - Age 33
Signed as an amateur free agent by the Milwaukee Brewers in 1997.  Made his major league debut with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2006 at the age of 31 after having an impressive spring training.  The perceived problem with Childers is he doesn't throw hard, as his fastball tops out at 90 mph, and he pitches to contact relying on late movement to get outs.  However, his career minor league stats show he does a good job getting the strikeouts and has good command of the strike zone.  Childers has a .89 K/IP rate and strikes out almost 3 batters for every walk.  In 2005 at Triple-A Richmond, Childers led all Braves minor-leaguers with 16 saves and had a team-low 2.09 ERA in 38 outings and yet didn't get a chance with the big league club.  In a 2006 article from the St. Petersburg Times, Childers stated, "I think they're scared of my velocity.  If I got called up and struggled, maybe they'll feel like they'll look bad."  This was prophetic.  He struggled in his first 5 appearances that year with the Rays and was sent down at the end of April.  Never getting the chance to return.

  G W L IP H ER BB SO ERA
MLB 5 0 1 7.2 12 6 4 5 4.61
AAA-2008 50 4 2 59 34 8 13 61 1.22
ML Career 423 47 48 851.1 763 280 283 791 2.96

 

Dan Giese - Age 31
Drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 34th round of the 1999 draft, Giese (rhymes with vice) has been in professional baseball for 10 seasons.  Made his professional debut with the San Francisco Giants in September of 2007.  Primarily used in a set-up role throughout his minor league career, Giese was converted to a starter in the Yankee's organization in 2008.  Giese was one of several rookie pitchers to give the Angels' hitter a hard time in 2008 when he pitched 6 innings against his favorite team growing up (Giese was born in Anaheim and attended Rubidoux High in Riverside) and left the game with a 2-1 lead.  In the August 9th start against the Angels, Giese gave up just 3 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1.  Giese is not a hard-thrower; his fastball rarely tops 87 mph, but has shown good command during his career in the minors using a change-up as his out pitch.  In 656.1 innings, he has walked 123 batters while striking out 600 and has a career ERA of 2.89 in 387 minor league games.

  G W L IP H ER BB SO ERA
MLB 28 1 5 52.2 47 22 16 36 3.76
AAA-2008 13 4 2 59 43 13 14 51 1.98
ML Career 387 44 24 656.1 590 211 123 600 2.89

 

Justin Lehr - Age 30
Rated the 68th best high school prospect in the country by Baseball America before the 1995 season, Lehr was a standout catcher and pitcher at West Covina High School.  Drafted 3 times, 1995 by Detroit in the 15th round and in 1998 by the Angels in the 10th round as a catcher, and in 1999 in the 8th round by Oakland after converting to pitching at USC.  Made his major league debut in June of 2004.  The California native has pitched in 4 different organizations in his 10 year career, splitting his time as both a reliever and starter (110 starts). 

  G W L IP H ER BB SO ERA
MLB 66 4 3 83 91 49 39 51 5.31
AAA-2008 16 6 2 64.1 51 15 11 41 2.10
ML Career 305 61 41 952 1040 423 292 707 4.00

 

Scott Strickland - Age 32
Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 10th round of the 1997 draft and made his major league debut in August of 1999.  After having been considered at one time to become the Mets' closer, Strickland's career had been sidelined by injuries.

  G W L IP H ER BB SO ERA
MLB 236 12 21 240 201 89 111 243 3.34
AAA-2008 52 4 0 66.1 50 26 27 72 3.53
ML Career 260 24 16 459.1 405 171 142 491 3.35

 

Of the above pitchers, I'd like to see Giese and Strickland in an Angels uniform, either in Triple A or possibly with the big club.  Both of these pitchers have shown success in the majors and most likely could be easily acquired.  Childers and Lehr look to me like they could help a major league club in the right situation, or as a fill-in due to an injury.  If Lehr has overcome what looks like control problems, he'd have a good chance to dominate, at least over a short period of time.

Where Have you Gone, Alan Bannister?

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I don’t have a favorite ballplayer and I haven’t had one in a long time.  There are players who I’ve drafted for one of my fantasy baseball teams who I get attached to, but by the end of the season my devotion has usually faded - along with any chance of winning my league.  Sometimes I’ll read an interview with a player and my interest will grow if he shows some humility and true love of the game.  I appreciated the way Jimmie Rollins handled the situation earlier this season when he was benched for not hustling.  It showed he had a team-first attitude and respect for the sport that paid him so well.  Instead of acting like a spoiled child who thought he was entitled to special treatment, he handled it like a man and accepted the responsibility.  Things like that go a long way with me and probably most other fans as well.

During the summer of 1974, I was a 13 year-old getting ready to start junior high.  While with my parents visiting some family friends, I met a young woman who was married to a professional baseball player.  Because of this chance meeting, it started a relationship that lasted over 20 years.  The player’s name was Alan Bannister and from that day forward, every summer’s day started by looking through the sports section of the newspaper to find the box score of Bannister’s current team.  Did he play?  Did he get a hit?  Just as routine as eating the morning’s bowl for cereal and then later, drinking the morning’s first cup of coffee,  the need to find out how my favorite player had done the previous day was a morning necessity.  This ritual lasted through my high school years, through the 4 years I spent in the Marines, and finally the beginning years of my professional life.

In 1985, Bannister’s career was winding down as he spent the season with the Texas Rangers as a utility playerBannister.jpg and pinch-hitter. On September 12th, my wife and I went to the Angels game down the street from our home in Anaheim to see the Angels play the Rangers.  The main reason for going to this particular game was to see Bannister play.  The odds of him playing this day weren’t very good; he had managed only 1 at-bat in the previous 5 games, but any reason to go to a ballgame is a good reason.  When the line-ups were announced, I was pleasantly surprised to see that Bannister was starting at 2B and hitting second in the order.  In the top of the first inning, Bannister hit into a fielder’s choice and then was forced out at second two batters later. 

During his second at-bat in the third inning, Bannister hit a deep fly ball to left off of Angels’ starting pitcher, Mike Witt.  I clearly remember standing as the ball floated up and thinking, hoping that it would go out.  Could it be possible?  While I’m not naïve enough to believe in fairy tales or magic, I’m not cynical enough to not think that something special happened on that Thursday night in September as the ball sailed over the fence.  I clearly remember my wife saying, “You’ve got to be kidding me” as she too realized the significance of the moment.  Up to that point in his career, Bannister had hit only 18 home runs.  Obviously on that night, neither Bannister or I knew how his season or career would end, but that homer to left was his last and I was there to see it.  Was it pay-back to me for all of the years of devotion, or was it just a random coincidence?  Many, many people feel there is something magical about baseball and that it’s not just a sport, but something much deeper.  Baseball runs so deep into people’s lives that it takes on more than just a past-time, it becomes a part of their lives, just like a friend.  Bannister’s last home run was baseball’s way of saying “thank you” to me.  Thank you for noticing, thank you for watching, and thank you for caring.  But the more I think about it, the more I realize I should be the one saying thanks.

Squeeze Play: Was Willits Safe?

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There's been a lot written and said about the 9th inning squeeze play the Angels attempted during Monday night's Game 4.  I'm not going to question the decision to put that play on here, at least not in this posting, but I wanted to address the question; was Reggie Willits safe because Jason Varitek had dropped the ball while tagging Willits out?  ESPN's Dave Campbell thinks Willits was safe (ESPN audio), and obviously so does Angels' manager Mike Scioscia in this O.C. Register piece.

I've created a short, looping video of the play, from the 3rd base side:

Squeeze0004.gif 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The video shows that Varitek had control of the ball when he tagged Willits, and the ball didn't come loose until Varitek hit the ground.  It was the ground that caused the ball to come loose, not the contact with Willits.  In my opinion, the umpire made the right call and Willits was out.

Angels' Payroll Options

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    2009
C Mike Napoli $425,000
C Jeff Mathis $415,000
1B Kendry Morales $600,000
2B Howie Kendrick $432,500
3B Chone Figgins * $4,750,000
SS Maicer Izturis * $1,200,000
LF    
CF Torii Hunter $17,500,000
RF Vlad Guerrero $15,000,000
DH Gary Matthews Jr $10,000,000
  Brandon Wood $415,000
  Sean Rodriguez $415,000
  Erick Aybar $415,000
  Reggie Willits $432,000
     
     
SP John Lackey $9,000,000
SP Ervin Santana $420,000
SP Joe Saunders $425,000
SP Jered Weaver $435,000
SP    
Closer    
Setup Scot Shields $5,000,000
RP Jose Arredondo $415,000
RP Justin Speier $4,750,000
RP Kevin Jepsen $415,000
     
  Kelvim Escobar $9,500,000
  Dustin Moseley $415,000
  Rich Thompson $415,000
     
 

Total

$83,189,500

* = Arbitration Eligible

The Angels' payroll in 2008 was roughly $120M, and owner Arte Moreno has stated he'd like for it to remain the same for 2009.  However, he has also said the payroll could be increased for the "right player".  Gone will be Francisco Rodriguez, Jon Garland, Garret Anderson and Juan Rivera which will free up about $36M.  The Angels figure to go hard after free-agent Mark Teixeira after his half season with the team.  Teixeira could receive a contract in the range of 6 to 8 years at $18M - $20M per year.  Another rumored free-agent target is C.C. Sabathia.  Sabathia could command 6 years for $144M ($24M per year).  If the Angels sign both of these high price players, they'd be right around the $120M limit. 

The Angels could move Chone Figgins to LF, freeing up 3B for Brandon Wood, and could trade one of their middle infielders for starting pitching, especially if Kelvim Escobar is unable to return after season-ending shoulder surgery.  Escobar isn't expected to return until at least mid-season, making another starter a priority.  Jose Arredondo or Scot Shields, or possibly an affordable free agent, figure to inherit the closer position.

Excellent Season Ends In Disappointment

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I've watched more than 120 Angels' games this season, and I noticed that the team who showed up in the playoffs was not the same team I had watched during the regular season.  Once the calendar rolled over to October, the team who won had 100 games in a season full of clutch hits, steady defense, and smart, aggressive base running was replaced by a team so tense that if you shoved a hunk of coal up their butt they'd have crapped out a diamond.  Second baseman Howie Kendrick looked over matched in each of his at-bats, and on the field he looked apprehensive.  The biggest example of this was during Game 3 when he and Torii Hunter watched as Jacob Ellsbury's weak pop-up fell in for a 3 run single.  Game 4 was exactly what most people thought it was going to be; a pitcher's duel that came down to one or two crucial plays.  Actually, there were two situations that were pivotal in this game:

  1. Top of the ninth inning, pinch-runner Reggie Willits on third, one out, and Erick Aybar at the plate.  After two Willits.jpgpitches that were nowhere near the plate, both being thrown inside to the left-hand hitting Aybar, Angels' manager Mike Scioscia calls for the suicide squeeze.  I think the Sox were looking for the squeeze and that is why they were pitching Aybar so far inside.  The third pitch, also way inside, was missed by Aybar's bunt attempt and Willits was tagged out by Boston's catcher, Jason Varitek.  Obviously, if the play had worked I wouldn't be writing about Scoiscia's decision to put the squeeze play on.  He would have looked like a genius, and the Angels and Red Sox would probably still be playing.  In my opinion, I would have had Aybar take a pitch after the first two pitches missed the plate.  If the third pitch to Aybar was a called strike, then try the squeeze on the next pitch, but if its ball 3 (like it was) Aybar is in a better position to get a pitch he could handle and possibly get the ball out of the infield.  If he walks, Figgins would be batting and the squeeze play would still be an opinion.
  2. Bottom of the ninth inning, Jason Bay on second, 2 outs and Jed Lowrie at the plate.  When watching thisLowrie2.jpg situation develop, I was surprised that Shields was left in the game to face Lowrie.  But when I started looking into it, I found that switch-hitting Lowrie hit over 100 points less as a left-handed batter than he did hitting right-handed (.222 LH, .338 RH) during the season.  Was leaving Shields in to face Lowrie the right decision?  Shields had pitched the 8th; easily striking out both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, and then striking out J.D. Drew to lead off the 9th, but he had already thrown 24 pitches Monday and 28 pitches the night before.  The other right-hand opinions in the Angels' pen were Frankie Rodriguez, Jose Arredondo (who had already thrown in the previous 3 games), rookie Kevin Jepsen, and Jered Weaver.  So, to answer my question...yes, leaving Shields in to face Lowrie was the right decision.  You have to give credit to Lowrie as he was able to do what the Angels' hitters couldn't, get a clutch hit to win the game.

It was definitely a disappointing end to an excellent season.

Daily Notes:

  • As it comes as no surprise, the Angel players are angry, mad, and frustrated.  Its interesting to note that some of the players are questioning Scoiscia's decision to squeeze in the 9th.
  • I've started working on some off-season projects, the first of which is a look at the Angels 2009 roster and player salaries.  Owner Arte Moreno has stated that he'd like the payroll to remain the same as the 2008 amount, roughly $120M, but would be willing to go higher for the right player(s).  Other topics for the off-season are free agent signings, a look at past Angel teams (such as the 1978 team), a season review, and possibly some "where are they now" stories.

It Ain't Over Yet

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Even after waiting 22 years, 5 hours and 19 minutes seemed like an eternity, but the Angels finally won a playoff game against the Red Sox.  Now maybe the dumbasses who are doing the announcing on TBS can finally stop talking about "the streak".Nap Bomb.jpg

(Note:  Sorry, but this is going to be another one of my short posts as I have to go do my "real job")

Not to complain, but last night's game should never have gone into extra innings.  Gifted with 3 runs on a bloopBloop2.jpg single that both Howin Kendrick and Torii Hunter gave up on, the Red Sox managed to score just one run on their own.  The first 3 RBI single in playoff history resulted from Kendrick and Hunter doing the "you got it"-"you take it" dance in center after the Sox had loaded the bases.

Mike Napoli hit 2 home runs, the first being a huge blast that landed outside of Fenway.  Jered Weaver, making his first relief appearance of his career, pitched 2 scoreless innings to get the win.

Tonight's game is a rematch of Game 1 starters John Lackey and Jon Lester.

I know this post is lame, please check back tomorrow to read the highlights from tonight's Game 4 Angels win.

"Shot through the heart, and you're to blame..."

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"...you just pitched a bad game."

Dear Francisco Rodriguez,
You had a record breaking season closing games for the Angels.  I admit, you weren't the best closer in baseball, but you did manage to somehow save 62 games during the regular season.  While many of the games you pitched were more nerve-wracking than waiting for the results Slay-Rod2.jpgof your 15 year-old daughters pregnancy test, 62 saves is something to be proud of.  But what you did Friday night was a gigantic stomach punch to Angels' fan everywhere.  That was worse than finding your wife in bed with Kevin Youkilis.  We sat through the game and saw the Angels scratch their way back to tie the game in the 8th inning after being down by 4 runs before even getting a chance to bat.  Some teams, when put in that position would just fold up and die, but not your team.  They scored one in the first, and then one in the fourth, and another in the fifth, and one in the seventh, until finally tying the game in the bottom of the eight.  The Angels had put themselves in a position win in extra inning against a weak Boston bullpen.  All you had to do is get 3 outs.  Obviously, the K-Rod of 2002 is no longer around.  Instead, he's been replaced with a pitcher who nibbles, has limited pitch selection, and whose domination went the way of Brittany Spears' sanity.  Hopefully, that wasn't the last game you've pitched for the Halos and you have a few more saves left in your erratic arm to finish off 2008.  There's nothing more that Angels fans would like to see is you doing your stupid sky-pointing celebration after recording the final out in the World Series.  But then after that, enjoy playing for the Mets.

Sincerely,
Angels Fans Everywhere

What Went Wrong
Besides the obvious meltdown of K-Rod, the Angel hitters squandered too many scoring opportunities.  Their inability to get any two-out hits left runners in scoring position in 5 of the nine innings.  In the 7th inning, the Angels had the bases load with one out and scored just one run after Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar struck out.  The Angels middle infield went 0-for-9 with 5 strikeouts (four by Kendrick).  I don't think Brandon Wood would be able to do much better than Kendrick, but Kendrick has looked so over matched against the Red Sox pitchers, that giving Wood the start in Game 3 would be an upgrade.  How much worse could Wood do? 

Another area the Angels need to improve if they want to continue playing past Game 3 is regaining their power strokes.  Come on, one extra base hit in 73 at bats?  In comparison, the Red Sox hitters have nine in the two games, including 3 home runs.  Imagine what the difference in the games would be if one of the Angels hitters had managed to at least get a double with guys on base.  The 0-2 deficit could easily be the other way around.

What Went Right
Mark Teixeira is a ballplayer.  Teixeira, making his first post-season appearance of his career, went 3-for-3 with aTeix Scores.jpg walk, an RBI, and three runs scored Friday night and is 5-for-7 in the two games.  In the fifth inning he scored the Angels 3rd run of the game on a shallow single by Torii Hunter in what looked like was going to be a very close play at the plate, he scored with a beautiful slide around Varitek and touched the plate with his outstretched left hand.  The Angels 2 through 5 hitters are batting an impressive .500 (with an OBP of .543) over the first 2 games.  The heart of the Angels batting order is doing their job, but were hitting without anyone on base to drive in.

What Needs To Change
Getting some hits, other than singles, with men on base for starters.  In my opinion, that is the biggest shortcoming the Angel team have done during this series.  With a couple extra-base hits, in the right situation, both games would have been completely different.  But when going station-to-station against the strong Boston pitching, the Angels hitters are allowing the Red Sox to shutdown any scoring opportunities before the Halos can take advantage.  The Angels haven't scored more than one run in an inning the entire series, never really turning the momentum in their favor.

Maybe shaking up the line-up will help too.  Replace the overmatched Howie Kendrick with Brandon Wood.  Kendrick may have a batting title or two in his future, but has looked totally incompetent in his at-bats.  Wood showed a completely different approach at the plate upon his return to the Angels line-up at the end of the season, and as I wrote above, how much worse could he do than Kendrick.

Game 3 ALDS Sunday October 5th, 7pm at Boston

Saunders sm.jpg  vs. Beckett.jpg 
Joe Saunders Josn Beckett


Joe Saunders - 2008

  IP H ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 198.0 187 75 21 53 103 17 7 3.41
vs Boston 18.2 18 7 2 9 6 2 0 3.38


Saunders was good this year against the Red Sox, winning 2 of his 3 starts.  I don't know what was up with his high walk rate, but you can't argue with the results.

Career vs. Boston Red Sox

  AB H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Dustin Pedroia 18 7 0 0 0 1 .389 .389 .444
Coco Crisp 17 5 1 4 0 2 .294 .294 .706
Kevin Youkilis 16 4 1 3 3 5 .250 .368 .563
David Ortiz 15 3 0 0 1 0 .200 .250 .200
Mike Lowell 14 3 0 0 1 1 .214 .267 .214
Julio Lugo 8 1 0 0 0 1 .125 .125 .125
Jed Lowrie 8 2 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250
Mark Kotsay 7 2 0 0 0 0 .286 .286 .286
Jacoby Ellsbury 7 1 0 0 0 1 .143 .250 .143
J.D. Drew 5 1 0 0 1 0 .200 .333 .400
Kevin Cash 5 1 0 1 1 3 .200 .333 .400
Jason Varitek 4 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .333 .000
Sean Casey 3 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Jason Bay 3 1 1 2 0 0 .333 .333 1.333
Totals 130 31 3 10 9 16 .238 .293 .377


Josh Beckett - 2008

  IP H ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 174.1 173 78 18 34 172 12 10 4.03
vs LAA 13.1 20 11 2 2 14 0 2 7.42


In 2008, Beckett was awful against the Angels, losing both of his starts and allowing 11 earned runs.  He did have a high strike out total and limited the Halos to just 2 walks, but he gave up 20 hits in 13.1 innings.

Career vs Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  AB H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Vlad Guerrero 30 7 2 5 4 7 .233 .361 .467
Maicer Izturis 24 7 0 1 1 3 .292 .320 .375
Garret Anderson 17 8 1 5 2 2 .471 .526 .765
Chone Figgins 16 5 0 0 2 6 .313 .389 .375
Gary Matthews 15 2 0 0 1 6 .133 .188 .200
Howie Kendrick 13 4 0 0 1 4 .308 .357 .308
Juan Rivera 12 2 0 1 2 0 .167 .286 .167
Torii Hunter 11 5 0 2 1 1 .455 .462 .545
Mark Teixeira 9 1 0 0 0 3 .111 .111 .111
Jeff Mathis 5 1 0 1 0 2 .200 .200 .400
Mike Napoli 4 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000
Robb Quinlan 3 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Reggie Willits 2 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Erick Aybar 1 1 0 3 0 0 1.000 1.000 3.000
Totals 162 43 3 18 14 37 .265 .330 .389

That One Really, Really Hurt

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It wasn't quite 1986 hurt, as the Dave Henderson's home run was one pitch away from the World Series and theKRod Loss.jpg "Mantle-like" J.D. Drew (what a JOKE) home run was just the second game of the ALDS, but it hurts a lot.  After the Sox scored 4 runs in the first off of Ervin Santana and the Angels ability to scratch their way back into the game to finally tie it in the 8th amid many missed opportunities, I thought Game 2 was going to be a Halo victory. 

I'm sorry to those who read this blog, but my schedule today doesn't allow me to put up the post I want.  Please check in tomorrow and I'll have an in-depth look at what happened, what needs to change, and why not to give up just yet.

GOOD ANGELS!

ALDS Game 2 - Angels vs. Red Sox

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The Angels play what some call a "must win" game tonight against Boston.  While I don't think things are that dire, a loss tonight would seriously dampen the Halo's chances of advancing to the ALCS.  The main thing the DiceK2.jpgAngels need to do tonight that they didn't do on Wednesday is...win.  How are they going to do that you ask?  How about by scoring more runs than the Red Sox.  Okay, don't start calling me "Captain Obvious" just yet, I'm just messing around.  What the Angels need to do tonight is relax.  Although it goes against the team's "normal" plan of attack, the hitters need to be patient at the plate.  Okay, maybe "patient" is the wrong word.  How about being more "selective".  Take some pitches that are out of the zone and make Matsuzaka throw strikes.  Work the count in the hitter's favor.  If Dice-K is throwing first-pitch strikes, then by all means swing, but don't swing just for the sake of being aggressive.  Dice-K led all pitchers in the American League in walks issued this season, and he did that in just over 167 innings.  Let him put guys on base and then make them pay.  While reading this article in the L.A. Times, Angels' hitting coach Mickey Hatcher states, "What good does it do you to take the first pitch," he said, "if that's the only one you can hit?"  WTF?!?  No one's suggesting the Angel hitters stand there and take 3 pitches down the middle, but what's wrong with being selective?  What does he want the Angel hitters do, strike out on a pitch that bounced in front of the plate like Erick Aybar did in Game One because he's being aggressive?  Is that being aggressive or just bad? 

Another thing they can do is get an attitude.  This team had the best record in baseball - act like it.  While watching Wednesday's game, the Angels looked timid.  Almost frightened.  Remember the mantra, "We Don't Take No Mess!"  Put Reggie Willits in the lead-off spot and when he comes to the plate in the first inning he should walk right up to Varitek and bitch-slap him.  Okay, that might be taking things a bit too far, but you get my point.  Show them you have some balls.  Have some swagger, you're the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for God's sake!

I'm not going to rail on about the TBS announcers again, I think I got my point across in my last post.  One thing I do want to clear up though is my comment about TBS's Jim McKay wannabe, Craig Segar.  In my post I had a typo.  I had wrote he had "rod kill" on his head when I was referring to his toupee.  Obviously I meant "road kill".  "Rod kill" would be a fish, and although a dead mackerel would probably look 100% better than the raccoon he sported Wednesday night, I wanted to clear that up. 

Game 2 ALDS Thursday October 3rd, 6:30pm at Anaheim

DiceK.jpg  vs. Santana.jpg 
Daisuke Matsuzaka Ervin Santana


Ervin Santana - Season

  IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 219.0 198 89 85 23 47 214 16 7 3.49


Career vs Boston

  AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
Mark Kotsay 18 7 0 2 0 .389 .450 .500
Julio Lugo 14 5 0 0 3 .357 .357 .714
David Ortiz 9 5 1 2 3 .556 .636 1.111
Jason Varitek 8 0 0 1 3 .000 .111 .000
J.D. Drew 7 2 0 0 2 .286 .286 .429
Mike Lowell 5 2 0 1 0 .400 .500 .800
Sean Casey 3 0 0 1 0 .000 .250 .000
Alex Cora 3 2 0 1 1 .667 .750 1.667
Dustin Pedroia 3 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Jacoby Ellsbury 3 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Coco Crisp 2 2 0 1 0 1.000 1.000 2.000
Kevin Youkilis 2 1 0 1 1 .500 .667 .500
Totals 77 26 1 10 13 .338 .414 .597


The above stats for Santana are over his career against the Red Sox and may be misleading as Ervin didn't face the Sox in 2008.  His 2008 season was completely different than his previous seasons, as he was able to stay consistent throughout the season at home and on the road.  Its been written that Santana has always had #1 stuff, and this year he proved it.  He'd easily be the best starting pitcher on most clubs.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Season

  IP H ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 167.2 128 54 12 94 154 18 3 2.90
vs Angels 5.0 7 6 2 2 2 0 1 10.80


In Dice-K's only start in 2008 against the Halos in Anaheim, he lasted just 5 innings, giving up 7 hits including home runs to Torii Hunter and Casey Kotchman.  That's the good news.  The bad news is during the second half of 2008, Matsuzaka was 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA on the road.

Career vs Angels

  AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
Torii Hunter 7 2 1 0 2 .286 .286 .714
Vladimir Guerrero 3 2 0 0 1 .667 .667 .667
Maicer Izturis 3 1 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667
Garret Anderson 2 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Mark Teixeira 2 1 0 1 0 .500 .667 1.500
Chone Figgins 2 1 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500
Jeff Mathis 2 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Juan Rivera 1 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Howie Kendrick 1 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000
Totals 23 7 1 3 5 .304 .370 .565


Daily Notes:

  • Okay, I know this is an Angels blog, but I have to mention something about the Dodgers.  Up until I was about 10 years-old, all I knew about baseball was the Dodgers since they were my dad's team.  So, while I don't like them, I do have a small interest in them.  And what they're doing to the Cubs is amazing.  They are completely dominating them with both pitching and hitting.  I think Manny Ramirez is a dick, but you've got to give him credit for what he's brought to the Dodgers.  They look like a totally different team than they did earlier this season.  And look like they might be hard to beat.
  • Angels' owner Arte Moreno was quoted in the L.A. Times that he'd be willing to expand the 2009 payroll beyond the 2008 amount "for the right players".  I thought it was interesting that he'd be willing to expand the payroll based on this season's post-season's revenue.  Moreno said a team can net an additional $18 million to $20 million in revenue if it reaches the World Series and plays close to the maximum number of games.  $18 to $20 million?  Sounds like one year of Mark Teixeira, or CC Sabathia, or...Manny Ramirez?  Don't barf, think what ManRam would do to the Angels line-up.  With the Angels already commited to chasing Teix and Sabathia, the extra cash from increasing the payroll and adding post-season revenue (if there is any), would be enough to add another big bat.  And just look at what Manny's done for the Dodgers.
  • Two of my kids will be at Game 2.  Lucky brats (just kidding, I love you and enjoy the game!)

Wow, That Sucked!

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Honestly, I didn't see that coming.  I thought the Angels would win last night's game easily, continuing this season's regular season dominance of the Red Sox into the post-season on their way to a World Series championship.  But the Red Sox had other plans.  Jason Bay's clubbing of a John Lackey mistake made the game 2-1 in Boston's favor, and the inability of the Angels to do anything against Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester sealed the Halos fate. 

Game 1.jpg(FYI, I spent last night watching the game at home and following the game thread on the Halo's Heaven fansite.  Since there are few Angel's fans where I live, I follow along on the game threads and interact with other Angels' fans, so I'll be referencing things written there a few times.)

The low-lights includedMatthews Sucks.jpg:

  • Gary Matthews Jr. botching of a routine flyball for a 3-base error.  Uh, Gary, that thing on your hand that smells like leather, it's called a "glove".  Use it.
  • Vlad Guerrero thinking he was an olympic-class sprinter trying to go first-to-third on a bloop hit behind first and getting thrown out by 15 feet.  He must have forgot he left his legs in 2002, or as one of Halo Heaven's posters wrote, "maybe the 7 pounds of gum in Vlad's mouth is slowing him down?"
  • Scot Shields giving up 4 hits and two runs in his one inning of work.
  • And the biggest low-light of the night was the 0-for-20 spectacle the bottom half of the order and Chone Figgins in the lead-off spot managed to choke their way to.  I mean come on, 9 strike outs in 20 at-bats?  And leaving 8 guys on base?  Unacceptable, to say the least.

As disappointing as last night's game was, it was made worse by having to listen to TBS's broadcasting team of Chip Carey and Buck Martinez's game-long, incessant verbal suck job of the Red Sox team.  It was ridiculous as to how much time they spent going on and on about Lester, Ortiz, Ellsbury, et.al.  Last night, for whatever reason, one of the frequent HH commenters who goes by the screen name of PhiSlamma used a stopwatch to track the amount of time the TBS guys talked about the Angels.  Here's what he posted:

"I spent tonight timing the time the announcers spoke about the Halos in any way. The broadcast is now at the three hour mark.
I started the stopwatch whenever they started talking in anyway, besides just using an Angels player name in a sentence while talking about the Red Sox.
Three hours +, haven't deducted the time for commercials.
Total time TBS has talked about the Angels:
27 minutes."

The amount of time he came up with was surprising.  I would have guessed it was a lot less.  In the top half of the inning the guys in the booth talked about how great the Boston hitters are and during the bottom-half of the inning they creamed all over themselves talking about Jon Lester.  With comments like, "They (Red Sox) can manufacture runs at will" and the constant repeating of the fact that Boston had won 9 straight against the Angels in the post-season, I thought we were listening to some of the Red Sox's girlfriends cooing over their boys.  It went something like this:

Buck Martinez:  Jon Lester's a good pitcher.
Chip Carey:  Well, I think he's a great pitcher.  And he's a fine looking man.
Buck Martinez:  Now that you mention it, Lester's the greatest pitcher in the American League.  And he cured cancer.
Chip  Carey:  Sorry, Buck, I'll have to disagree with you.  He's the greatest pitcher in the major leagues.  And not only did he cure cancer, his jock smells like freshly baked cookies.
Buck Martinez:  You know Skip, Jon Lester just may be Jesus Christ.
Chip Carey:  Jon Lester is God.  Oh, and by the way, the Red Sox have beaten the other team 9 straight times.
Buck Martinez:  Who are the Sox playing again?
Chip Carey:  I forget.

Oh, and who was the guy wearing the blaze orange jacket with the rod kill on his head?  Craig Segar?  Where did they dig that guy up from?  And why is he talking?

And if I have to see another Frank Caliendo commercial I'm going to puke.  (I do like his impression of a fat, non-funny comedian though...he's got that one down pat.)

Okay, enough of the negativity.  Here's some positive notes. 

  • Darren Oliver was awesome, pitching the Angels out of a first and third jam in the 7th inning by striking out David Ortiz and then getting 2 more outs in the 8th.
  • The Angels 2-3-4-5 hitters went a combined 8-for-15 after being a non-factor last year against Boston.
  • John Lackey pitched well enough to win the game, making only the one mistake to Jason Bay, giving up just 4 hits and striking out 5 in 6.2 innings.
  • On of my favorite HH commenters who uses the screen name Zu Long posted this stat:
        Angels record in ALDS games where we lose Game 1: 2-2.
        Angels record in playoff series overall where we lose Game 1: 4-3
        Angels record in playoff series overall where we win Game 1: 0-3
    That makes me feel a bit better.  Apparently the Angels like to play with their backs against the wall.

Now a day of rest and then Game 2 - Daisuke Matsuzaka vs Ervin Santana.

Waiting For The Game

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Daily Notes:

Surfing stories and wasting time, I came across these tid-bits...

  • The ESPN folks pick their winners for the post-season here.  Notably, Peter Gammons, Jim Caple, and Pedro Gomez pick the Angels to beat the Dodgers in the World Series.  Three others pick the Angels to beat the Cubs.
  • ESPN also has a spot where you can rank the playoff teams.  As of 2pm (central time), the Angels were leading the results with 4500 of the 12,000 votes.
  • And one more ESPN story...Jemele Hill's article is about how the Angels are the best team no one is talking about.  I cracked up when she quoted Torii Hunter about when the Rally Monkey jumped on him Monday at the Playoff Rally, "I thought it was going to piss on me".  Also within this article, while the Angels were meeting with the media an ESPN analyst proclaimed they had no shot at dethroning the defending champion Red Sox.  "Yeah, you all picked the Mariners, too!" someone yelled out.
  • Joe Sheehan of BaseballProspectus.com, by way of Sport Illustrated has this Angels/Red Sox preview.  He's taking the Sox.
  • Here's some video of the Angels press conference before today's game courtesy of MLB.com.
  • CBS Sportsline gives the edge to the Angels in their playoff preview.  All four of their baseball analysts pick the Angels over the Sox and are split on them winning the World Series over the Cubs.
  • Over at Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal picks the Angels in 5 games.

Hopefully this stuff will keep you occupied while waiting for the game to start.

ALDS Game 1 - Angels vs Red Sox

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Here it is...finally!  After waiting for more than 2 weeks since clinching the West, the Angels head into the post season for the 4th time in five years and they're facing their arch-rival Boston Red Sox.

I've teamed up with Derek Hixon from Sawxblog to go over this first round match-up.  I've checked out his site a few times, just to see what the opposition is up to, and it's a very good fan site.  Regardless of if you're an Angels fan or a Red Sox fan, be sure to check it out.  Here are our takes on the two teams and who we think is going to win...any why:

Manager

Red Sox:
Terry “Tito” Francona may quite possibly already be the greatest Red Sox manager of all-time. After five seasons as the Manager of the Boston Red Sox Tito has compiled a record of 470-340, good enough for a wining percentage of .580. In his three trips to the postseason thus far he’s helped the Red Sox win it all two times and has amassed a 22-9 record during that time. Everyone knows that being the Manager of the Red Sox is a high stress job with killer scrutiny from both the fans and press alike, however Francona seems to handle it all with a dry sense of humor, and consummate professionalism. His ability to use his baseball instincts, and also play ball with the “stat geeks” of the front office has made him the prototypical contemporary manager of a new generation of baseball managers. Simply put, ballplayers love to play for him, and fans rarely are pointing fingers directly at him, which is a testament to his abiity to do his job.

Angels:
Angels' manager Mike Scioscia, regarded as one of the best managers in the majors, is a by-the-book type ofscoiscia.jpg manager who uses "small ball" and aggressive base running to put his team in a position to score runs.  He sometimes does things that make Angels' fans scratch their heads, such as earlier this season when he'd platoon Kotchman even though Kotchman hit lefties better, or sticking with Matthews for so long while he sucked (anyone remember Steve Finley?) and batting him second in the line up.  Scoiscia is also predictable in the use of his bullpen where each reliever has his role and is seldom used in other circumstances - Arredondo in the 7th, Shields in the 8th, and Rodriguez to close the game in the 9th.  Not that this is a bad thing, as a solid bullpen has been a strength of the Halos for the past few years.

Offense

Red Sox:
The Boston Red Sox have not only had a famous team over the past few seasons, but they’ve also had a famousYouk sm.jpg offense. Most notably missing from this offense in the 2008 playoffs is the bat of the selfish, and now California resident, Manny Ramirez. However don’t be fooled into thinking that the Red Sox still can’t hit the ball. With the trade of Manny it seemed that all players on the team picked up the slack, which helped solidify the club much more as a team a la 2004. One of my favorite stats in baseball to truly judge how good a team is, is by looking at their run differential. And aside from the Chicago Cubs (+184) the Red Sox have the best run differential in all of baseball at +151 compared to the Angels at +68. They also scored the second most runs in the American League with 845 (Rangers 901). Which is nearly 100 more runs then the Angels who had 765. If the Red Sox played in the AL West, where only the Angles were over .500 the game tonight would most likely be being played in Fenway Park. This all being said, the recent injuries of both Iron Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew and his posse loom large of the Red Sox and their post season chances. They’re just not the same team without these two bats in the lineup and this may help level the playing field quite a bit if they can’t play. How healthy they are, and the extent they’re used will be a large part in determining the legacy of the 2008 Red Sox.

Angels:
The Angels' offense is built to put pressure on the other team's defense.  By taking the extra base, going first to third on base hits, and stealing bases (2nd in the league), the Angels' offensive attack takes advantage of the other team's mistakes.  The Angels seem to do just enough to win, having the league's best record in one run games over the last 2 years.  I've read in a few places that the Angels win because they are lucky.  I don't believe in luck and I think the Angels win because they put themselves in the position to win by playing aggressive, fundamental baseball.   I hate to sound like a naive fan who says the team has "chemistry" or are "clutch", but I have a hard time explaining the Angels success using stats because they don't do anything exceptionally well...except win.  Other than stolen bases, the Angels rank in the middle of the league in almost all offensive categories.  Rarely drawing walks (12th in the league) or working deep into counts, the Angels hitters rely on timely hitting to score runs.  With the additions of Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter sandwiched around Vlad Guerrero, the Angels have one of the most potent middle-of-the-order line ups in the American League.  Teixeira, the perfect #3 hitter, has the ability to drive in runs with his extra base power, and can get on base ahead of Guerrero and Hunter giving them more RBI opportunities.  During the 53 games Teixeira has played for the Angels, he has gotten on base by either a hit or walk in 46, and has scored 39 times.  With the emergence of Mike Napoli's hot bat during the final two months, the team has another source of run production from the bottom half of their batting order, giving the Angels a top-to-bottom balanced attack.

Defense

Red Sox:
It seems that after 2003 the Red Sox front office and management truly decided to embrace the gray cloud that is baseball defensive statistics. This again was most prevalent in the 2004 trade of Nomar Garciaparra. Since that organization changing trade the Red Sox have been one of the best defensive clubs in the game, which has been a large part to them not only winning games, but championships. The Red Sox are tied with two other AL East teams for first in the AL in fielding percentage at .986 with the Angels and Devil Rays right behind them at .985. When talking about their defense you have to start with former gold glove winner, and Red Sox captain, Jason Varitek. Not only does V-Tek call a good game, but he’s a rock behind the plate. His arm may not be what it used to be, but for the guy who’s caught more no-hittters then anyone in MLB history, he’s smart enough to make up for it. This brings us back to the health of Mike Lowell, because when healthy, the Sox infield is just plain sick. Lowell is another rock at the hot corner, the gold glove winner Youk NEVER seems to make an error at first, and Dustin Pedroia may win his first gold glove this year. SS is the Sox weakest infield position with Jed Lowrie/Alex Cora, however both of their range is good, and they’re by no means a liability. This is also the one area where the subtraction of Manny Ramirez is an addition for the Sox. Any combination of Crisp, Ellsbury, Bay, and Drew gives you a sick looking outfield with arguably three CF.

Angels:
The infield defense for the Angels been fantastic up the middle, led by slick-fielding Erick Aybar and solid Howie Kendrick.  The addition of Gold Glove winner Mark Teixeira at first base makes the infield even better.  After watching Chone Figgins at third this year, I truly think he is under-appreciated.  He plays steady defense, able to make the routine plays and has a strong arm from across the diamond.  The outfield defense may not be as good as some people think.  Torii Hunter can cover a lot of ground in center, and makes highlight reel catches at the wall, but both Garret Anderson and Vlad Guerrero are slowing down because of age or injury. There is no rocket arms out there, but the range of Coco and Jacoby more then make up for their “Damon-esque” arms.

Starting Pitching

Red Sox:
This is the area where the Red Sox were supposed to have a dominant edge over their competition this year. A funny thing happened on the way to the oblique farm though, and the health of Josh Beckett has thrown a monster sized wrench into the equation. And I won’t even touch on how Curt Schilling was lost for the entire season. That said our starters for Game 1 & 2 of the ALDS are two of the best still. Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are a combined 34-9 on the season, all along Lester has arguably been the best pitcher on the staff. The lefthander looks like a caged tiger on the mound, and his coming out party this year has been a fun one to watch. Matsuzaka on the other hand has pitched a season like none other before him, allowing runners but not runs. He’s a pitcher with a reputation of rising to the occasion in big games and I expect nothing short of him in this series. If Dice-K can keep his pitch count down, he very well may stay undefeated on the road this season. Like I said in the beginning Josh Beckett is a huge question mark, however if healthy enough, watch out. He’s the greatest big game pitcher of his generation, and I find it hard to see him falling on his face this postseason. Like Lowell and Drew, Beckett is the last piece the Sox need to try and repeat as champs.

Angels:
Heading into this season, the ability of the Angels starting pitching was unknown since their top 2 pitchers wereLackey.jpg starting the season on the disabled list.  Angels ace John Lackey missed the first 6 weeks of the season recovering from a strained forearm and Kelvin Escobar was lost for the season with a shoulder injury.  What was looked at as a weakness in the pre-season became one of the Angels biggest strengths when Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders filled out one of the best major league starting rotations in 2008.  Using just 7 starters all season, the Angel rotation of Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Jon Garland, and Jered Weaver combined to win a league leading 73 games and compiled an ERA of 3.97.  The 3 pitchers that the Boston hitters will face (Lackey, Santana, and Saunders) had a combined ERA of 3.54 while holding hitters to a .243 batting average.  As ESPN's Keith Law states, "John Lackey and Ervin Santana are as good a 1-2 as any other playoff team can run out there, giving them an edge particularly in Game 2 matchups featuring Santana."

Bullpen

Red Sox:
The Red Sox bullpen may be the weakest link when looking at all the parts of the team. However if you’ve been paying attention lately you’ve seen them shore up their approach and they seem to be gelling now more then ever. The emergence of Justin Masterson was the catalyst for this turnaround, and with Oki and Delcarmen falling into suit I feel a lot better. That said, if/when Timlin enters the game I may be watching through my fingers. I may give the advantage to the Angels here overall, however the first few innings of the Red Sox bullpen may set the tone. That, and they’re a heck of a lot better musicians!

Angels:
The Angel bullpen had the 4th best ERA in the American League and the 6th best in all of baseball.  Led by Scot Shields and rookie Jose Arredondo, the Halo pen lost only 11 games (not counting Justin Speier's record as he is not on the playoff roster) while winning 25.  Even 37 year-old Darren Oliver has pitched well, posting an ERA of 2.88.  The Angels excellent record in one run games (31-21) is based largely on the bullpen's ability to hold a lead.  Compared to Boston's record in one run games (22-23), the Angels bullpen may be the deciding factor in the series.

Closer

Red Sox:
I say this is all seriousness, and yes, I know I’m a homer to a point, but I’d rather have no-one else, Mo and K-Rod included, then Jonathan Papelbon coming in to close the game. Time and time again Paps has proved himself, and he’s done it on the largest of stages. Interestingly enough, unlike the bullpen, he’s looked more human then ever down the stretch. I hope this is an aberration, but me and ever other Sox fan out there has a tiny seed in our head where we’re definitely a little nervous. It’ll be interesting to see how many 4+ outs he’s asked to record, where the potential for rockiness always seems to increase.

Angels:
Okay, everyone knows Angels' closer Francisco Rodriguez broke the major league season saves record this yearFrankie 58.jpg with 62 saves, but rarely did Frankie come into the game and completely shutdown the opposition.  You have to give him credit for consistently getting the job done, but it was almost always a nerve wracking experience watching him pitch the 9th inning as he gave up a hit or issued a walk, or sometimes both before getting the third out.  This may be a problem for the Halos against the Red Sox as they most certainly have the ability to make a pitcher pay for his mistakes.  In order for the Angels to win the series, Rodriguez will need to step it up and record "clean" saves by shutting down the Sox hitters.

Bench

Red Sox:
The Sox bench is nothing make your jaw drop, however with it’s mix of young and old, it seems to be just as good a combination as there was in 2007. With the like of Sean Casey and Alex Cora you’re going to get leadership and prepared players, and you just hope this rubs off on the younger guys. The addition of Mark Kotsay has also been huge for the Sox, and he just seems destined to do something big this post-season.


Angels:
The Angel bench will be comprised of Gary Matthews Jr, Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, Jeff Mathis, Kendry Morales, and Rob Quinlan.  To be honest, nothing really special here.  Wood may get a start or 2 at shortstop depending on how good Aybar looks, but other than that, the Angels bench shouldn't be a factor in this series.

Homefield Advantage

Red Sox:
While the Angels have the actual homefield advantage in the series, it’s undeniable to discredit how well the SoxBush sm.jpg play in Fenway. Fenway Park is becoming synonymous with October baseball and the Red Sox have one of the best records in the league at 56-25. If Josh Beckett’s healthy (knocking on wood) Game 3 could be very, very nice for the Sox.

Angels:
The Angels are essentially the same team on the road as they are in Anaheim as they had the identical home/away record (50-31) in 2008.  Their run differential is roughly the same (home +29, away +39) regardless of where they play.  The advantage they will have at home will come from the fact that the Red Sox are a completely different team away from Fenway.  The Sox had the second best home record (56-25), but were three games below .500 on the road (39-42).  This difference is evident by their home/away run differential of +124 at Fenway, and +31 when playing at the other team's stadium. 

Prediction

SawxBlog:
Red Sox win series 3-0
Game 1 - Score: 6-3 - Winning Pitcher: Jon Lester - Losing Pitcher: John Lackey - Save: Jonathan Papelbon
Game 2 - Score 11-4 - Wining Pitcher: Daisuke Matsuzaka - Losing Pitcher: Ervin Santana - Save: Jonathan Papelbon
Game 3 - Score 5-4 - Winning Pitcher: Justin Masterson - Losing Pitcher: Joe Saunders - Save: Jonathan Papelbon

The Halo is Lit:
Angels win series 3-1
Game 1 - Score: 7-5  Winning pitcher: Jose Arredondo - Losing pitcher: Jon Lester - Save: Frankie Rodriguez
Game 2 - Score: 4-2  Winning pitcher: Ervin Santana - Losing pitcher: Dice K - Save: K-Rod
Game 3 - Score: 2-6  Winning pitcher: Josh Beckett - Losing pitcher: Scot Shields
Game 4 - Score: 5-1  Winning pitcher: John Lackey - Losing pitcher: Jon Lester

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